Will migrants be able to organize protests in the country?

In general, in a society that reacts passively and carelessly to violations of the law, and is not demanding or proactive, it does not matter where and by whom the protests are organized. The ideological-political and moral-psychological preparation and organization of the society and force majeure situations are important factors in the protests.

The unification of bloggers who criticize the government from abroad around a common strategy is a positive development in itself. The impact of individual broadcasting from social media on public opinion is weakening. In an environment where there is no freedom of speech and press in the country, the role of migrant bloggers in the formation and direction of public opinion can be positive. It can have an effective impact on the socio-political and psychological environment in the country.

The legal legislation stipulates the organization of peaceful protests individually and collectively by each person and organization. However, the exercise of this right in the country remains a serious problem. The government has limited the right to freedom of assembly to such an extent that it is difficult to talk about its existence.

At different times in the country, the behavior of the government in the protests of the opposition, either permitted or unpermitted with the government, did not differ much. It tried to prevent people from expressing themselves by all means. It took the harshest measures against the organizations and individuals, who organized the protests, under various pretexts.

It has sometimes been argued that the presence of protest organizers abroad could be the best deterrent factor against the government's traditional repressive policy. It is not easy for the government to neutralize the organizers abroad. However, it should not be forgotten that it is not convincing for dissatisfied people to trust and rely on the organizers abroad, to respond positively to their calls, and to make a protest.

We have rarely seen more than 10,000 to 15,000 protesters join the protests organized by the country's most influential opposition leader, the chairman of the APFP, Ali Karimli. Even the most successful protests could not be resumed after strong government pressure. Dissatisfied members of society are reluctant or afraid to join even the permitted rallies.

Even superficial monitoring of social networks shows that the scale of dissatisfaction in the country is growing. However, it is too early to say whether the conditions are right for these dissatisfactions to turn into protests.

In the post-war period, there were certain hopes and expectations that urgent social, economic, and political reforms would be carried out in the country, and fundamental human rights and freedoms would be ensured. There were many objective grounds for such hopes. At the stage of the political and diplomatic settlement of the Karabakh conflict, one of the most important factors is the positive change in the international image of the state.

Although more than four months have passed since the war, no positive steps have been taken towards reforms. On the contrary, the government is taking a tougher line on rights and freedoms. It is noteworthy that the socio-political discontent in the country is gradually increasing in line with the government's behavior.

The government, which has so far managed to prevent dissatisfactions from turning into protests through legal mechanisms, does not seem to be concerned about tensions in society. The right to freedom of assembly is fully restricted by law and the police have the power to prevent any protests.

Although the military victories in Karabakh have increased the government's political prestige and strengthened its position, there is no intention to pursue democratic reforms. The Azerbaijani opposition and the active part of the society are facing a dilemma in this regard. The political will of the government is not prone to democratic change. The radical solution to legal, political, and economic problems in the country goes through the mobilization of all the potential of society. The government itself does not want to do this, and society does not have the mechanisms to force it.

Protests are one of the important tools to achieve effective results of democratic political processes in the country. Mass protests can have a greater impact if they are organized and tested by opposition organizations. The purpose of the actions must be clear to the public, and the public must trust the individuals and institutions that take responsibility.

Although the intentions and initiatives of young bloggers are positive, it is not yet realistic that they will receive serious support from society. If bloggers abroad have a unified propaganda strategy, it can have a greater social impact on society in the near future.

Nasimi Mammadli