Post - Karabakh era

It seems that the last page of the Karabakh conflict will be turned over in the coming days. However, a new stage is coming in the history of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. With the withdrawal of Armenians from Karabakh, the problem turns into the plane of Baku-Yerevan relations.

International consolidation of the results and recognition of the results of the war is important for Azerbaijan. In this sense, the conclusion of a peace treaty with Armenia is crucial. There is no doubt that today's situation puts an end to the trilateral statement of November 2020 and does not guarantee the prospect of peace. The delimitation of borders and the road through Zangezur are still unresolved issues.

The loss of Karabakh is a blow that the Pashinyan government will have to endure. If there is a coup or a change of power in Armenia, the results of the war will be rejected. Paradoxically, Baku should be interested in continuing the current political course of Yerevan. And it lies not only in Yerevan's readiness to conclude a peace treaty with Baku.

Leaving Russia

The current leadership of Armenia is psychologically ready to revise strategic relations with Russia. Apparently, this will not happen in the form of denunciation of bilateral military-political agreements.

At the same time, Yerevan is striving to develop military cooperation with the United States, France, India, Greece and possibly with other NATO countries. Arms supplies from these countries will increasingly displace Russian weapons, and periodic military exercises of the Armenian Armed Forces with NATO countries will occur more often. In the future, we may also talk about a permanent foreign military presence in Armenia.

This prospect will certainly weaken Russian influence and lead to its partial withdrawal from Armenia. For example, the border troops of the FSB of the Russian Federation, which still guard the borders of the country, including the airport of the capital Zvartnots.

Withdrawal from the CSTO is not far off, given that Armenia did not receive the support of the organization during the Second Karabakh War. The only factor that keeps Yerevan from taking these steps. This is a threat of military-political and economic sanctions from Russia.

However, Yerevan also has trump cards. The end of the confrontation in Karabakh will allow Yerevan and Ankara to restore diplomatic relations. This means the opening of borders and the beginning of direct trade between the two countries. In many ways, this will remove economic dependence on Russia. Moscow's attempt to blackmail Armenia by raising gas prices will push Yerevan to increase purchases of Iranian gas.

Thus, the only lever of pressure on Yerevan will remain the Armenian Diaspora of Russia. However, the deportation of migrant workers will only strengthen anti-Russian sentiments in Armenia and will not give Moscow the desired result.

Help Pashinyan

The opposition, which seeks to overthrow Pashinyan, does not recognize defeat in Karabakh and promises to return the lost territories by military means. The coup in Armenia will inevitably bring to power those who are somehow oriented towards Russia. In this case, Moscow's interests will require increased pressure already on Baku.

The new government in Armenia will not open the borders with Turkey and give consent to the opening of the road through Zangezur. The state concept of "Reclaiming Karabakh" will become a program for the next 20-30 years.

All this does not bode well for Baku. Therefore, unrestrained criticism and schadenfreude against Pashinyan, which are pouring from TV channels, look, at least, irrational.

The strategic task is to open the Zangezur road, which is implemented as part of the normalization of relations in the Ankara-Yerevan-Baku triangle. It is not in the interests of Azerbaijan to "help" Pashinyan's opponents to overthrow him.

The power path

What can the forceful opening of the Zangezur corridor lead to? The seizure of the territory of a foreign state will inevitably lead to sanctions. The Security Council resolution alone will not do. It will be hard to believe that Moscow will veto.

But that is not the worst part. The United States and the European Union can simply impose sanctions against the Zangezur road, which will turn it into a road from Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan.

The sanctions will prohibit the transportation of goods to Europe and back by this road. Such a ban will be introduced for all companies and organizations engaged in transportation. Sanctions may also be imposed against the Azerbaijani Railway. All this will minimize the benefits of this route and make it unprofitable.

In addition, personal sanctions against individual leaders of the country are also possible. Already, a large group of US congressmen has put forward a bill on the imposition of sanctions against Azerbaijan.

Baku's New Strategy

Post-war realities require Baku to rethink the situation considering the new reality. The refusal of most or even all Armenians to stay in Karabakh makes the option of living together between the two communities unviable. Therefore, in the future we will have an ideological war against accusations of "genocide" and "ethnic cleansing", proceedings in European courts, etc. The history of Armenian-Turkish relations shows that these claims are unlikely to be dropped ever.

Strange as it may sound, but today the Pashinyan government is the most acceptable way to end the confrontation and start the process of establishing relations. It is clear that this process will go on in parallel with the fading conflict, and the main task is to prevent the normalization of relations from receding into the background again.