"Sooner or later Azerbaijan will be accused of ethnic cleansing"

After the local military operations conducted by Azerbaijan in Karabakh, the statistics of the exodus of Armenians living in this region are announced daily. According to official Armenian sources, 120,000 Armenians lived in Karabakh after the 44-day war. And Azerbaijani officials at various times made statements about the residence of 25 to 40 thousand Armenians in the mountainous part of Karabakh.

The separatists urge local residents not to panic and not to create congestion on the roads. It is reported that the process of leaving Karabakh will not be limited in time, and everyone will be able to leave Karabakh. The Azerbaijani side proposes the reintegration of Karabakh Armenians. And Karabakh Armenians are migrating massively from Karabakh. But how should this problem be solved?

Political commentator Arastun Orujlu answers questions from ASTNA on this topic.

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Question: The Azerbaijani side proposes the reintegration of Karabakh Armenians. And Karabakh Armenians are migrating massively from Karabakh. Naturally, their migration will not add to Azerbaijan's authority in the international arena, on the contrary, by giving rise to talk about deportation, it will bring nothing but headaches. How do you think this issue should have been resolved? Or how should it be solved?

Answer: Naturally, the ideal solution to the conflict would be the reintegration of the Armenian community living in the Nagorno-Karabakh region to Azerbaijan. However, this conflict, which has been going on for a long time and has assumed the character of ethnic intolerance, required conditions for the creation of tolerance and trust for reintegration. And for the emergence of trust, first of all, a peaceful phase is necessary. That is, the transition of the conflict into a peaceful phase. But after the 44-day war, not only were the conditions for this not created, but permanent wars also took place. That is, frequent clashes, confrontations, losses have further deepened this ethnic intolerance and hatred. In such circumstances, there could be no question of any trust. I must say that the parties did not even try to do this. Because the conditions on both sides were directed in a very harsh direction. That is, the Armenians unequivocally stated that they in no way agree to live next to the Azerbaijanis and obey Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan was not going to offer another way out. And this has natural causes. All this current migration and the anti-terrorist operation conducted before it led to the loss of possible chances. There could be no question of reintegration without creating some kind of trust. Of course, perhaps a small part of the population will stay and agree to reintegration. But, as we can see, there is no such atmosphere yet. People migrate en masse. Although the civilian population did not suffer during the recent hostilities. But it played a negative role in another context. The distrust deepened even more.

It is already quite difficult to find a way out here. If the Armenian population had not migrated, there would have been time for the trust-building phase, it could have been implemented. On the other hand, did the forces interested in this region need to build trust? Do they want such dynamics between Azerbaijanis and Armenians? Probably not. At least, we have not seen such efforts on the part of Russia, which could directly influence the process. During these 3 years, Russia has never tried to dissolve the so-called regime, which, complicating the situation, prolonged its political existence, or withdraw illegal armed formations from there. This did not happen. On the contrary, we have seen that very serious resistance was put up during the anti-terrorist operation, and the Azerbaijani side suffered significant losses. From this it can be concluded that Azerbaijan had no other way out. That is, whether Azerbaijan will be accused or not, it remains on the conscience of the accusers. There was no other option in sight either. As I have already said, this was hindered primarily by the circumstances that arose after the 44-day war.

Attempts are being made to negotiate today. Negotiations are conducted in various forms. But it is difficult to expect that these negotiations will give a positive result or prevent the migration of the population. At least, such a process is not visible. It looks like this will continue. Most Armenians will leave the region. Sooner or later Azerbaijan will be accused of ethnic cleansing. On the other hand, the continuation of this process in this form, unfortunately, will further strengthen mutual hostility.

Question: Azerbaijan incessantly says that Karabakh Armenians are citizens of Azerbaijan. Naturally, based on the fact that many compatriots and citizens have experienced the fate of refugees and internally displaced persons, we can say that no one will wish their citizens of another nationality the fate of a refugee or an internally displaced person. We have always seen that Azerbaijanis and Armenians lived together in Karabakh and Armenia. Is coexistence impossible after that?

Answer: The tragedies experienced by Azerbaijanis for 30 years and Armenians over the past 3 years could eventually be forgotten. But so far the wounds are so fresh that it would be too optimistic to expect that everything will soon be forgotten and that people will be able to live together again. Looking through the prism of the current circumstances, I do not see such a possibility. So far, we are seeing an escalation in any sense of the word. Including in the relations between Azerbaijanis and Armenians. Therefore, to assume coexistence today would be to a certain extent an idealization. Frankly speaking, I am a pessimist in this matter. At least, in the current circumstances, this is not possible. Maybe it will be possible in the future. Perhaps some of the population will stay, and not leave.

There are also manipulations of numbers. The Armenian side says that 120 thousand Armenians live in Karabakh, and the Azerbaijani side says that there are only 40 thousand of them. In any case, we are talking about the migration of thousands of people. In such circumstances, the first wave of migration should be prevented. But it is impossible to do this by force. It would be a different form of violence. But it is impossible to do this peacefully, because there is no trust. Due to the lack of mutual trust, coexistence is also impossible at this stage. Maybe after a certain time, as a result of negotiations, the Armenian population will gradually return. But experience shows that a population that has once left its place of residence does not return until this territory is captured by its armed forces. And Karabakh Armenians have no chance to take these mountainous territories under their armed control. Russia can play a certain role in these conditions. But Russia has never played a positive role in this issue either. Of course, Russia will try to keep a part of the population at least in Khankendi and its surroundings in order to maintain its presence there. Supposedly as a peacemaker. Under such conditions, it is possible. But even this will not mean conflict resolution, coexistence. It takes time to ensure coexistence. And he's not.

Question: Meanwhile, Armenia considers it important to deploy UN peacekeepers in Karabakh. In his speech at the UN, Ararat Mirzoyan noted the importance of deploying peacekeepers in Karabakh with a UN mandate. What does Yerevan mean by this? What does this message mean?

Answer: The call of Ararat Mirzoyan is an accusation by the Armenian government against Russia, since the Russian peacekeepers did not fulfill their mission. The Armenian side declares that Russia will absolutely not fulfill its mission there under any circumstances. It must be replaced by international forces. But the fact is that this issue will not be implemented by the appeal of Armenia alone. Azerbaijan's consent is required for the deployment of an international peacekeeping mission. Will Azerbaijan agree to this? I don't think so. Since practice shows that the deployment of such missions does not serve to resolve the conflict. On the contrary, it creates conditions for strengthening separatism. An example is Kosovo, where the peacekeeping mission has by no means played a positive role. A peacekeeping operation is only effective when the parties have the will to ensure peace and coexistence. Today it is virtually impossible.

First of all, Yerevan wants Russia to withdraw from the region. This has been openly stated several times. Today there are two places where Russia is represented by armed forces in the South Caucasus. One is Armenia, the other is the Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan. But Russia will never agree to its replacement in this region by an international mission. Russia has the right of "veto" in the UN. If such a decision is made, Russia can exercise this right.

Question: What will be Azerbaijan's reaction to the question of UN peacekeepers?

Answer: Azerbaijan's attitude to this issue will also be negative. Because it actually means replacing existing mechanisms with new ones. And this means a new stage of the process. It is not profitable for Azerbaijan in any case. Because in the current conditions, Azerbaijan already has a definite plan. But if a new international peacekeeping mission appears in the region, Azerbaijan will have to prepare for new geopolitical conditions. And this is not in the interests of Azerbaijan. So I don't think it's possible.

Question: Chairman of the Center for Analysis of International Relations Farid Shafiev said in an interview with the media that as a guarantee of the neutalization of the accusation of genocide, the city of Khankendi will be under the control of Russian peacekeepers. What changes have taken place in the current situation after these recent local hostilities? Will we be able to see the Azerbaijani flag in Khankendi in the near future?

Answer: Russia will not allow the Armenians to completely leave the territory. The complete exodus of Armenians from the territory will mean the end of Russia's mission, called peacekeeping. Therefore, Russia will try to ensure that the population stays in a certain part of the territory of Khojaly and Khankendi. Therefore, Azerbaijan's control over these territories and the hoisting of the flag to Khankendi will be difficult. If we had made any harmful deals with Russia on this issue, it would have been possible. For example, it would be possible if we agreed with Russia's desire to deploy a military base in Karabakh. Thus, today it is not yet clear that Khankendi will completely come under the control of Azerbaijan. There is some propaganda in this direction, and work is underway. This is our desire. But from the point of view of real politics, this possibility is not yet visible.