How will the Russian-Ukrainian war affect the Karabakh issue?

Baku/11.03.22/Turan: On the night of March 11 and on Friday morning, the positions of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces in Karabakh  were fired from different directions. Armenian military units fired at the positions of the Azerbaijani army in Fuzuli, Khojavend, Aghdam and Khojaly. In addition, units of the Armenian Armed Forces fired at the positions of the Azerbaijani army in the direction of the settlements of Ellidja, Barmagbin and Yukhari Ayrim of the Kalbajar region.

Prior  to the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war, along with intense violations of the ceasefire in Karabakh and on the border with Armenia, there are reports on social networks that some processes are taking place in Khojaly and Khojavend. At the same time, video recordings of the departure of part of the Russian peacekeepers from Karabakh through the Lachin corridor were published.

Yesterday's meetings between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Turkey, as well as the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and the Russian foreign ministers, raised the issue of some innovations.

The processes taking place in the region were commented on by political observer Oktay Gasimov to the program "Difficult Question"

According to him, the intensive violation of the ceasefire regime in Karabakh and on the border with Armenia, taking place against the backdrop of the Russian-Ukrainian war, can be considered the transition to the active phase of the next stage of the process, which started after the tripartite ceasefire declaration signed by the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, Prime Minister Minister of the Republic of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan and President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin on the night of November 9-10, 2020.

“This process will be connected with the events in Ukraine. If Russia manages to achieve its goals there, then we may become witnesses of a situation that does not meet our interests at all,” Gasimov said.

In his opinion, Armenians in Karabakh became more active after the visit of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to Ukraine (January 14, 2022).

“The head of the separatists, Arayik Harutyunyan, went to Moscow (February 10). Following this, the separatists started talking about making some changes to the so-called constitution of the illegal entity. There has also been talk of reforming and strengthening the so-called self-defense forces of the quasi-state. At about the same time,  began the attempts to dig trenches and build fortifications in front of the positions of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces,” the observer emphasized.

According to him, neither the separatists of Karabakh, nor Armenia itself would be able to carry out such actions on their own, without the support of Russia. He also stressed that after the signing on February 22 by Russian President Vladimir Putin of a decree on Russia's recognition of the independence of the separatist entities in Ukraine - the DPR and LPR, the Armenian separatists perked up, they again began to hope that this might be a precedent for Karabakh.

Therefore, Gasimov believes, “today Ukraine is deciding not only the fate of Ukraine itself, but of the whole world, and in particular the future of Azerbaijan.

"If Russia fails to defeat Ukraine, then it will not be able to realize its disastrous plans," he said.