Ibadoglu: the rate of dollar can rise to 2.8 manat

"According to official statistics, last year, the economy of Azerbaijan decreased by 4 times. Food inflation crossed 15 per cent, more than 50,000 jobs closed. Azerbaijan's economy, along with Belarus and Russia, affected by the decline among the CIS, also topped the Black List, wrote on his Facebook page known economist Gubad Ibadoglu.  The  forecasts for 2017 year are not optimistic.

"The first half of the year will be more severe. During this period, the economic crisis will lead to a budget crisis, for decreasing imports, weak economic activity would give rise to problems in the execution of projections of budget revenues. This, in turn, will create serious difficulties in the timely payment of pensions and salaries in organizations funded from the state budget," notes Ibadoglu. In his view, the biggest challenges will be unemployment and inflation.

"The job cuts will continue in 2017. During the year, there will be new decisions by  the Tariff Council on increase of prices for energy, utilities, payment for travel on public transport. These and other factors may resulted in double-digit inflation. In 2017 will continue the difficulties in the financial and banking sector. Banks and non-bank credit organizations will be forced to suspend activities and to unite," emphasizes Ibadoglu. According to the expert, the rate of manat against the US dollar may develop  during a year according to three scenarios for the year. With a favorable scenario, the average rate of $ 1 will be 2 manat 20 kopecks.

In the case of medium scenario the dollar will cost 2 AZN 50 kopecks. If there is a worst scenario, the dollar will rise to 2 manat 80 kopecks. Ibadoglu believes that if in 2017  it is not  possible to form a real exchange rate of manat  it will be  impossible to attract capital into the country and stabilize the economy. Expected changes may be implemented only with the support of an independent civil society and a free press. Economic reforms must be carried out together with political, says Ibadoglu.—05В06—