Azerbaijan and the European Union resume negotiations, balancing between energy and politics

A meeting was held in Brussels between the delegations of Azerbaijan and the European Union with the aim of resuming negotiations on a new bilateral agreement and conducting the next round of discussions on the document “Partnership Priorities.” According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, the Azerbaijani delegation was headed by Deputy Foreign Minister Yalchin Rafiyev, while the European Union side was led by Deputy Managing Director of the European External Action Service Audrone Perkauskiene. Following the meeting, it was decided to hold the next round of negotiations in early June in Baku. In addition to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Azerbaijani delegation included representatives of the Ministries of Economy, Justice, Energy, Digital Development and Transport, Finance, Labour and Social Protection of the Population, as well as the State Agency for Antimonopoly and Consumer Market Control under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the State Customs Committee, the Central Bank, and the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan.

“We are interested in a balanced and mutually respectful agreement with the European Union that takes into account the national interests of Azerbaijan,” Yalchin Rafiyev said.

According to international analysts, the latest meeting in Brussels indicates that the long and complex negotiation process between Azerbaijan and the European Union is entering a new stage. The legal framework of relations between Azerbaijan and the European Union was established by the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement signed in 1996 and entering into force in 1999, which formed the initial institutional framework for interaction in the post-Soviet space. In 2009, within the framework of the Eastern Partnership programme, Azerbaijan gained additional opportunities for political and economic rapprochement with the European Union; however, unlike a number of other countries in the region, it did not join the association agreement format, preferring a more balanced model of cooperation based on the principles of sovereignty. Since 2017, the parties have been negotiating a new comprehensive agreement that is expected to cover political dialogue, economic cooperation, energy, transport, the legal sphere, and human rights. The latest high-level meeting demonstrated that negotiations are gradually moving from the technical level to political coordination.

The participation of a wide range of state institutions in the negotiations underscores their complex nature. The inclusion of areas such as energy, digital development, finance, and social policy indicates a significant expansion of the future agreement’s agenda, while the decision to continue negotiations in Baku reflects the parties’ intention to maintain institutional balance.

The policy of the European Union towards Azerbaijan is largely based on the principle of conditionality. Reports by European institutions regularly raise issues such as limitations on political pluralism, the state of media freedom, and the existence of politically motivated prosecutions. In this regard, the European Union insists on including specific commitments in the new agreement in the areas of the rule of law and fundamental freedoms. In the economic sphere, Brussels expects an acceleration of reforms, including the deepening of market mechanisms, the reduction of tariff and non-tariff barriers, and the development of a competitive environment. At the same time, Azerbaijan’s accession process to the World Trade Organization remains prolonged and requires additional efforts. An important element of integration is the Common Aviation Area agreement signed in 2022, which has not yet been fully implemented and предусматривает structural changes in the domestic aviation market. Despite the existing simplified visa regime, the transition to a visa-free regime requires further progress in security, migration management, and law enforcement cooperation. At the same time, given Azerbaijan’s role as an energy exporter, the European Union expects the country to take a more active stance on decarbonization, the transition to green energy, and the implementation of climate commitments.

Rapprochement with the European Union opens significant economic and institutional opportunities for Azerbaijan, but it is accompanied by serious political and geopolitical risks. The complex configuration of the regional balance of power, the sensitivity of neighbours such as Russia and Iran, and the new security environment formed against the backdrop of the war between Russia and Ukraine all intensify these risks. Deep integration with the European Union implies the alignment of legislation with European standards, the implementation of institutional reforms, and the fulfilment of obligations in the field of human rights, which may be perceived as an increase in external influence on the domestic political model. In the event of a sharp integration course, this could limit room for political manoeuvre and increase internal tensions.

Additional risks are linked to external political factors. Russia continues to view the post-Soviet space as its sphere of influence and reacts sensitively to the expansion of the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Experience in recent years shows that countries choosing deep integration with Western structures have faced political and economic pressure from Moscow. In this context, a deeper rapprochement between Azerbaijan and the European Union may also raise concerns in Iran, which views the strengthening of Western presence in the region as a security threat, including in relation to borders, the ethnic factor, and religious influence. In combination with the development of cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel, this increases Tehran’s concerns.

Global processes, including the war between Russia and Ukraine and rising tensions in the Middle East, are increasing pressure on countries to choose a geopolitical orientation, complicating Azerbaijan’s policy of balancing. The energy agenda is becoming increasingly politicized, while Azerbaijan’s role as an alternative supplier of energy resources to Europe is growing.

“Azerbaijan is a reliable partner of the European Union in the field of energy security and will continue to strengthen this cooperation on a mutually beneficial basis,” President Ilham Aliyev said, emphasizing the pragmatic nature of relations with the European Union.

This creates new economic opportunities but at the same time increases competition and attention from major powers, raising the risks of indirect conflicts and regional escalation.

“Azerbaijan is a key energy partner of the European Union, and we expect an expansion of gas supplies to Europe,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen noted after the signing of energy agreements in Baku.

In the context of the transformation of the international system, Azerbaijan continues to pursue a multi-vector foreign policy, combining the development of cooperation with the European Union with maintaining distance from full integration, strengthening its strategic alliance with Turkey, and preserving balanced relations with Russia and Iran. According to analysts, this model helps minimize external risks, but in the long term leaves the country facing a strategic choice between deeper integration and maintaining a sovereign but more limited development model.

Within the country, negotiations with the European Union are viewed differently. Representatives of the opposition and civil society note that the European Union, seeking to ensure energy security, may compromise on issues of democracy and human rights. At the same time, there are calls for democratic reforms to become a key element of rapprochement with Europe, including the development of political pluralism, the conduct of free elections, and the strengthening of media independence.

“Without real democratic reforms, it is impossible to speak of full integration with Europe — this is a key condition for rapprochement,” said Musavat Party leader Isa Gambar.

On the other hand, supporters of integration believe that cooperation with the European Union can accelerate institutional reforms and serve as a catalyst for long-term economic stability.

Key contradictions in the negotiations remain around the relationship between sovereignty and regulatory alignment, the balance between energy cooperation and human rights requirements, and between economic liberalization and the existing model of state regulation. These factors make the process of concluding a new agreement lengthy and complex.

According to analysts’ assessments, in the short term the parties may focus on agreeing on the Partnership Priorities document and expanding cooperation in technical areas. In the medium term, the new agreement may be completed in stages with accelerated integration in certain sectors, particularly in transport and energy. In the long term, the development of relations may include visa liberalization, progress towards membership in the World Trade Organization, and deepening economic and institutional integration.

Overall, the meeting in Brussels confirms the strategic importance of relations between Azerbaijan and the European Union and demonstrates their development on an institutional basis. At the same time, this process goes beyond technical interaction and takes on a distinctly political character. The balance between democracy and human rights requirements, on the one hand, and energy and geopolitical interests, on the other, remains the key factor that will determine the future dynamics of these relations.