"The signing of an Association Agreement with the European Union largely depends on the intentions and political will of the Azerbaijani authorities"

There has been no talk recently about an association agreement to be concluded with the European Union (EU). Neither government representatives nor EU officials raise this issue. What is the reason? Why are Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine signing such an agreement, an agreement has been signed with Armenia, but the signing of an agreement with Azerbaijan is delayed?

Fuad Hasanov, Chairman of the Democracy Monitor organization, answered ASTNA’s questions regarding the prospects of Azerbaijan's accession to the EU.

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Question: At what stage is the signing of the agreement with the EU?

Answer: The EU itself cannot determine at what stage the signing of the agreement is. The last optimistic statement by the head of the EU Delegation to Azerbaijan, Peter Mikhalko, was made on December 16, 2022, it seemed that only a few days remained before the signing of the agreement. The anniversary of this optimistic statement will be celebrated in two months, but there is no result. From time to time we exchange opinions with EU officials on this issue, and frankly, they do not have the same optimism.

The Eastern Partnership Initiative, which provides for a special partnership between the EU and the Eastern Partnership countries (Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Armenia, Moldova and Ukraine), was established at the Prague Summit in 2009. In 2014, without much delay, an Association Agreement was signed with Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine and soon entered into force in all three countries, providing for rapprochement and deepening between partner countries and the European Union, as well as an agreement on Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas, DCFTA (Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas, DCFTA).

During this period, the political situation in Ukraine was special and it was a little late. Azerbaijan, Armenia and Belarus preferred not to rush to the adoption of the agreement in the country. Because, existing in all three countries, the economic and political system full of restrictions, the monopoly deeply rooted and institutionalized in the economy, the terrifying transparency index, the dependence of the legislative and judicial system on the executive branch, the suppression of political freedoms, the imitation of elections will not be combined with the reform requirements arising from the agreement. The authorities of all three countries were not ready for such reforms. In Armenia, the government was even weaker, financial dependence was even stronger.

Realizing the obligations arising from the agreement, Azerbaijan chose a position of greater delay, maneuvering during the negotiations on the agreement and over the past period managed to change the name of the Agreement twice. The original Agreement is called the Association Agreement, Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine have also signed an agreement under this name. And Azerbaijan initially refused the Association Agreement, then changed the Strategic Partnership Agreement proposed by itself again, delaying the process a little more, and now the Agreement being prepared for signing, if it is signed at all, is called the "New Comprehensive EU-Azerbaijan Agreement" (New Comprehensive EU-Azerbaijan Agreement). Naturally, during this time, the Azerbaijani authorities have shown considerable perseverance to change the classical content and essence of the Association Agreement. For example, the country has never hidden that it is in full partnership with the European Union in the field of economy and energy, and its behavior has clearly shown that it is not interested in democratization and ensuring human rights, especially civil and political, without discrimination. But for the reasons listed above, Azerbaijan manages to get the condition of joining the World Chamber of Commerce excluded from the negotiations on the Agreement and further stymie negotiations on some proposals on trade partnership.

Question: In what position are other post-Soviet countries equated with Azerbaijan?

Answer: As already mentioned, Moldova and Ukraine, being countries included in the EU Eastern Partnership program with the same status as Azerbaijan, signed an Association Agreement with the EU on June 27, 2014, and although the agreement entered into force in Moldova and Georgia on July 1, 2016, this happened in Ukraine September 1, 2017. The agreement, along with the three Eastern Partnership countries, covered the Agreement on Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Zones, DCFTA (Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas, DCFTA).

In August 2017, the European Parliament Committee for the first time asked the International Relations Committee to prepare, on its own initiative, 3 reports on how the Agreement is being implemented and the speakers, who are members of three parliamentary groups from Latvia, Lithuania and Germany, assessed 3 countries that have already signed the Agreement - Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia. Then, in order to solve the problems identified during the evaluation of the implementation of the Agreement, the European Parliament presented important recommendations and resolutions to all three countries. In order to ensure the effective implementation of the AA/DCFTA, the requirements arising from the recommendations and resolutions were put forward, and they confidently approved reforms in many areas, declared work on ensuring access to the customs, energy and digital union and the Schengen area.

Moldova, having signed this agreement before Ukraine and Georgia, already from April 28, 2014, acquired for its citizens the opportunity to freely visit the Schengen territory without a visa using a biometric passport and stay in this geography for 90 days. This was the first massive opportunity to strengthen the institutionalization of the mobility of Moldovan citizens to the European Union. Naturally, this opportunity also increased the number of migrants seeking asylum in the Schengen area and created new additional problems for the EU. Since Georgia and Ukraine signed the Agreement relatively late, they were able to get access to visa-free travel only in 2017.

In the following years, after the first country assessment report, a differentiated individual approach begins to manifest itself more and more in neighboring Georgia, which is more interesting for us, the European Parliamentary Research Service again assesses the situation with the fulfillment of the relevant obligations of the Association Agreement concluded between the EU and Georgia in 2020. This time, the assessment has already given more space to political development. Democratic processes, the rule of law, human rights and fundamental freedoms, media freedom, civil society, gender equality, discrimination, children's rights, abuse, workers' rights, corruption, trade liberalization, customs services, technical product standards and regulation, financial services, cybersecurity and a number of other, not mentioned, very important areas, were included in the list of evaluation of the implementation of the Agreement.

But the most deplorable thing is that Armenia, with which we always compare ourselves, also, since 2015, inspired by the behavior of neighboring Azerbaijan, ignored the European Neighborhood Policy, made a claim to demonstrate a more differentiated and adaptable approach to the member states and in 2021 signed the Comprehensive and Expanded Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the EU.)

Question: Why is Azerbaijan lagging behind them? What is the reason?

Answer: Let us imagine that Azerbaijan has signed the agreement, and the process of its evaluation will take place according to the above parameters and in more detail. Every two years, a rapporteur appointed by the European Parliament should monitor and evaluate the implementation of the agreement within a legal framework based on more specific and principled commitments, and then, if necessary, these reports can be discussed in the EP, which is not liked by the government. But the matter is not limited to this, in bilateral and multilateral contacts these recommendations and resolutions are purposefully discussed, the results obtained are considered, deadlines for changes and reforms are set. Isn't it difficult to do all this in the current, to put it mildly, political conditions?

Although the country is not a member of the World Trade Organization, it is not easy to sign alternative documents(s) containing trade liberalization and other similar provisions defined as an obligation, because it is undesirable for the government. The fact that in this case the position of the authorities will be difficult is indisputable.

Question: Why haven't people been thinking about this question at all lately? Why do neither the EU nor Baku say anything about this?

Answer: Although this issue has not been voluntarily forgotten, the current sensitive global and regional conditions and challenges have led to the fact that against the background of more important problems and concerns, this problem has become less visible.

The EU has been conducting a dialogue with Azerbaijan on human rights since 2017. The round of negotiations is followed by rotation, one year in Baku, the next in Brussels. In 2017-2019 When organizing international partner organizations, we also tried to make a useful contribution to this process. Since human rights should occupy one of the important places in the prospective agreement to be signed between the EU and Azerbaijan, the EU strives, as far as possible, to achieve positive progress in this area through this mechanism and platform of dialogue. Although I am not entirely sure that the dialogue process is going well, it is an important tool in terms of addressing pressing human rights issues that need to be addressed.

Russia's war against Ukraine and the terrible situation it has created in the region, the possibility that the war may last and end no earlier than the end of 2024 or the first half of 2025, and that this will further burden the agenda of the Euro-Atlantic space, which is the main pillar of Ukraine, including the European Union, appears before us as an immutable reality. In such a sensitive period, Azerbaijan's role in the process of ensuring the EU's energy security and in ensuring the North-South transport corridor indicates that it will not be easy for it to get a signature. The war that ended despite Russia's obstruction, Azerbaijan's victory and the complete liberation of most of our occupied territories, Azerbaijan's active contacts with international actors in the process of peace talks in Washington and Brussels to achieve bilateral peace, which Russia could not prevent, as well as the fact that faith in a successful prospect and Azerbaijan's unwavering participation in this has not been lost The process forces the soft power to exercise caution when reaching a comprehensive agreement that Azerbaijan will have to sign. with the European Union. In these circumstances, the already belated Agreement with the EU creates many undesirable obligations for the Azerbaijani authorities, depriving it of its already low attractiveness.

Question: Which side most depends on the signing of this agreement?

Answer: Rapid progress in signing the agreement by the European Union is not possible, since the European Union is a softer force, has no enforcement mechanisms, and Azerbaijan's financial dependence is not serious. Therefore, the signing of the agreement largely depends on the intentions and political will of Azerbaijan and the political authorities in the country.

Question: What steps should be taken to sign this agreement?

Answer: First, both parties must declare the provisions of the Agreement that could not be agreed, indicate the reasons and factors that are an obstacle. Intensive negotiations on the agreement come at a time of destruction of civil society. The inability of an independent civil society to closely monitor this process and question it has done its job.