Trump ultimatum and escalation risks

President Donald Trump on Tuesday issued a stark warning to Iran, saying that “an entire civilization” could perish if Tehran fails to take steps to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before a set deadline.

In a morning post on Truth Social, Trump described Tuesday evening at 8:00 p.m. as “one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the world.”

“An entire civilization will die tonight and never be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will,” he wrote.

The president also suggested the situation could change in the event of political transformation in Iran. “Now that we have complete and total regime change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, perhaps something truly revolutionary and wonderful can happen,” he added.

Trump’s remarks come amid rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz — a critical route for global oil supplies — heightening fears of further escalation.

The president had previously floated the possibility of strikes on infrastructure targets, including bridges, desalination plants and energy facilities. Analysts say such targets could include civilian infrastructure, and deliberate attacks on them could potentially constitute war crimes.

According to earlier reporting by POLITICO, Pentagon war planners are revising a list of potential energy targets, including facilities supplying fuel to both civilians and the military, in what is seen as an effort to reduce legal risks tied to violations of international humanitarian law.

Washington has not announced specific decisions, but diplomatic efforts to ease tensions are ongoing.

The United States and Iran are engaged in indirect talks aimed at preventing further escalation, though their positions remain far apart as military pressure intensifies ahead of Washington’s deadline.

Trump said negotiations are “active,” although sources indicate there are no direct contacts, with communication taking place through intermediaries including Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt.

U.S. officials say Washington is demanding that Tehran reopen the Strait of Hormuz and abandon its nuclear program. Iran, in turn, is calling for sanctions relief, compensation for damages, and guarantees to end hostilities.

Diplomatic efforts are complicated by the mutually incompatible demands, reducing the likelihood of a swift breakthrough.

Against this backdrop, a proposal for a 45-day ceasefire known as Islamabad Accord (2026) is under discussion, предусматривающий временное прекращение боевых действий с последующим переходом к полноценным переговорам. Iran has also presented its own settlement plan, which Trump described as “a significant step, but not enough.”

Meanwhile, U.S. forces continue targeted strikes on military sites, including near Kharg Island, while so far avoiding key oil infrastructure. Washington has linked any halt in strikes to the reopening of the strait and a broader agreement.

Tehran has rejected U.S. ultimatums, denied the existence of direct talks, and warned it is prepared to respond.