A fundamentally different situation

In the 100 days since the election, it is impossible not to notice the change in foreign policy. While the "return" process, which began with the words of the head of state Erdoğan, "It is Ukraine's right to join NATO," was enriched with shades in favor of Turkey at the Sochi meeting on September 4, the attempts to approach Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan directly through Mr. Erdoğan should be analyzed in that context.

Yes, the conductor of the new process that started with the arrival and departure of Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Turkey was the United States and Western countries, and Turkey took an active role in that process. No, no one should hurry and compare this process with the Zurich Protocols, which effectively affected relationships between Turkey and Azerbaijan in October 2009. There is a difference like a difference between Earth and Heaven. The most important difference is that the processes at that time were initiated by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ahmet Davutoğlu, most of which consisted of fantasies, and the current processes were launched in November 2021 with bilateral initiatives and at the same time.

Yes, the press secretary of the head of state of Turkey at that time, today's head of national intelligence, Ibrahim Kalin, stated that the main obstacle to the normalization of relations between the two countries has been removed, that Azerbaijan won the 44-day war, and therefore there are no significant obstacles to the normalization of relations with Armenia.

Mr. Kalin also mentioned that they consulted with Baku to start a new "normalization process". However, the information we received from an anonymous source about the new "normalization process" indicated that things are not progressing as intended. In the intervening 19-month period (November 2021 - July 2023), the "normalization process" is remembered by the arrival of Armenian Foreign Minister Mirzoyan to Turkey after the February 6 earthquake and Prime Minister Pashinyan's participation in the swearing-in ceremony of Mr. Erdoğan, who was re-elected as president, but the significant progress of Volodymyr Zelenskyy "triggered" the trip.

The words of the head of state of Turkey, who showed Russia that Turkey is still where it has been for 70 years with the words "NATO membership is Ukraine's right", became a "signal firecracker" for the new stage of developments in the South Caucasus. Nikol Pashinyan, who is trying to reduce the influence of Russia on the existence of his country, and who seems to have received open support from the West for this when carefully watching the processes, turned to Turkey, taking into account the current situation of the country he governs, as well as the recommendations of the powers from which he receives support.

At one time, Saakashvili's Georgia did it and benefited a lot. Russia, which is bent under sanctions after attacking Ukraine, has no breathing room except Turkey. This is the nature of international relations - there is neither eternal friendship nor eternal enmity. President Erdoğan, who skilfully used the situation created by the war in his relations with Russia, carefully read the conditions brought by the international situation and turned his face to the West again.

As someone who has been following the processes since the secret meetings of the delegation headed by Levon Ter-Petrosyan in Ankara in February 1993, I can say that the most serious and decisive period of the process of "normalization" of relations between the two countries has been experienced since July. They may ask that the Zurich Protocols were signed in October 2009 under the mediation of Switzerland, under the auspices of the United States, and under the supervision of Russia, so why did the process not move forward? Those who follow developments closely know very well that there are several concrete answers to this question. One of those answers is that nobody would have dreamed that an Armenia ruled by Kocharyan, who occupied Karabakh, and then Sargsyan, would recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijan's land and take away Russia's most important card. However, in September 2023, Nikol Pashinyan, whose voter support never fell below 60%, not only announced this but also did not hesitate to send the Rome Agreement to the parliament for ratification. If ratified by the parliament, the visit of the head of state of the Russian Federation to Armenia, against whom an arrest warrant was issued by the Hague Court, may lead to his arrest.

The fact that Nikol Pashinyan recognizes Karabakh as the land of Azerbaijan is added to the words such as "There is no longer a problem of occupied lands", "The status of Nagorno-Karabakh has gone to hell" and so on, and the fact that Ankara recognizes Karabakh as the land of Azerbaijan is also strengthened. Yes, Turkey, which closed its border with Armenia on April 8, 1993 "due to occupying Azerbaijan's land", is now facing a different situation, and instead of taking a step forward, remaining in the pre-war static for 44 days will show that foreign policy remains under Baku's mortgage more than before.

Did you say internal politics?

Both the key and the lock remain in the hands of Tayyip Erdoğan, the most powerful personality in Turkish politics and state administration. We will analyze the possibility of "evolution" to Sharia dictatorship in another article.