Elimination of legendary Iranian military diminishes durability of Teheran regime

The US elimination of legendary (from official Teheran’s standpoint) military of Iran, General  Kasem Suleymani and deputy head of Iraqi grouping «Hashd ash-Shaabi», Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in Iraq deals a heavy blow to the foreign policy of Iran in the region. For the Iranian regime that suffers defeats in the internal policy, successes in Syria and Iraq are the only factors to somewhat neutralize domestic revolutionary sentiments.

Note that Iran’s defeat in Iraq and Syria means relaxation of mullah regime in the country and growth of anti-clerical movement in Iran.

The Suleymani funeral demonstrated a weak involvement of society into the ceremony. You can consider this as the lack of popular support for foreign political line of mullahs, as well as strong support from Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and other militarized organizations.

Despite Iranian statements on the requital to the United States, international estimates have been formal and conservative. The authorities have not appealed to the public calling them to consolidate and decline from mass rallies. In so doing, they tried to suppress anti-governmental sentiments in society.

"Unfortunately, the United States has embarked upon the path to endanger the security of the region, so under current situation it is essential to hold consultations and coordinate actions of friendly countries," said Hassan Rouhani, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran on January 4 during his meeting with Mohammad Al Tani, Foreign Minister of Qatar.

All things considered, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the IRI held propaganda consultations with heads of Foreign Ministries of neighboring countries in an effort to avoid further escalation by the United States.

Iranian Foreign Ministry reports on telephone talks between Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and his counterparts from Azerbaijan, Qatar, Tajikistan, Turkey and Afghanistan were short-spoken: “telephone talks were held to discuss the latest developments and the most important regional and international issues”.

It should be noted that the regime is unlikely to take any retaliation measures. The point is that mullahs are concerned about actions to avoid open military confrontation. They realize that under current public sentiments the consolidation against external enemy is not possible; instead there is a risk of anti-regime and regime clashes with subsequent weakening of latter’s position.

Inability to get back own and loss of Iran’s influence in Iraq and Syria is expected to intensify popular resistance to the current regime in Iran, its subsequent weakening.