Restraint on the verge of tectonic breaks

The attack of Hamas on October 7 prompted the traditional-classical Islamist wing of Turkish society to take to the streets, this time under the leadership of Temel Karamollaoğlu-Ahmet Davutoğlu and Jr. Erbakan, and familiar slogans were resounded in the streets and squares.

It seems that the words of Ahmet Davutoğlu, who was one of the inspirers of Hamas - "I would call an emergency meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation" - in the early 2000s did not reach the center of the organization in Jeddah. Those who follow these things did not expect that power - the AKP government would be so sluggish in an issue that constitutes one of the foundations of the philosophy of the creation and existence of the political Islamist government.

Turkey sends emergency aid to Gaza in non-emergency situations as well, no surprise here. The fact that President Erdoğan, who has become a kind of expert on Palestine with his speeches and statements made over the years, this time questioned "the approach of the world's largest aircraft carrier to the shores of Israel" pointed to a number of serious points. Also because the nuclear-powered ship "Gerald Ford" approached the coast of Turkey a short time ago, and Selçuk Bayraktar, the country's most powerful arms industrialist, took a picture with the US ambassador in Ankara on that ship.

This was characterized as an unfreezing in cooperation between Turkey and the United States, especially in the field of the arms industry. We still do not see the supporters of the ruling party "thumping" in the streets and squares. From the first day, President Erdoğan warned that "the loss of life on both sides should be as little as possible", and as Israel's military operations intensified, the Turkish president's warnings became relatively sharper. However, in spite of everything, until the Organization of Islamic Cooperation is able to demonstrate any influence, Turkey cannot find an international maneuver space to express its opinion.

On the other hand, the Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdullahi's visit to Beirut as soon as the pressure in the region increased, and his attempts to create an alliance along the lines of Syria-Lebanon-Egypt-Qatar, i.e., Tehran's initiation of the "proactive" policy followed by Ahmet Davutoğlu, who was the adviser to the prime minister and the foreign minister and then the foreign minister, was watched carefully, even with envy, by many circles in Turkey. However, unlike Iran's sectarian policy, Ankara knows that Turkey's "sectarian" policy will not be of much benefit.

At a time when the wealthy countries of the Gulf intend to sign the "Abraham Agreement" with Israel, what can be the profit of the radical Sunni policy that Turkey will follow? Ankara is well aware that Hamas, like other radical organizations of the Islamic world, does not trust Turkey much precisely because of its secular system. Yes, although President Erdoğan is the leader of the political Islamists of Turkey and the patron and spiritual inspirer of the political Islamists of the world to a certain extent, under the current conditions, Tehran's practical assistance to Hamas, which is waiting for an Israeli attack, is more useful.

At a time when it is expected that the response to the ground operations to be carried out by Israel will be given from the streets, tunnels, and underground passages of Gaza, Turkey's proposal to "mediate for a ceasefire" is not on the agenda. Therefore, insisting on convening an emergency meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and not interrupting humanitarian aid to Gaza remain the most realistic options.

The fact that Ankara follows a restrained policy in relations with Israel while Baku follows a policy of "good friendship and cooperation" with Israel will not cause dissatisfaction in the relations between "one nation, two states". Since the voices of discontent rising from the Islamist and Islamist-nationalist sections of Turkish society are not at a level that will affect official relations, the situation described in Mirza Alakbar Sabir’s famous poem - “Çax çax başın ağrıtdı, kefin çəkdi dəyirman.” (the meaning of the verse is “the dogs bark but the caravan goes on”) - will remain in force for Baku.

And... perhaps after the Second World War, the Middle East and the Caucasus regions became the scene of such serious tensions one after the other.

We can talk about a very serious tectonic break in both of them.

Maybe we are inside that break.

"Who knows? Maybe tomorrow, maybe sooner than tomorrow..."

I commemorate Mehmet Akif Ersoy, the author of the Turkish national anthem, also because he and his son-in-law Ömer Rıza Doğrul (he studied at Al-Azhar University and was a CHP Konya deputy) gave the most accurate comments about the Middle East.