The nature of the response is determined by force

As you know, on August 13, the armed forces of the Russian Federation in the Black Sea stopped the Turkish cargo ship Sukru Okan going to Izmail with a warning fire and, landing on it from a helicopter, inspected the cargo, and only after that the ship was able to continue its journey. One can wonder if this could be followed by more drastic steps by Russia or was it a warning noise bomb? In our opinion, what happened can be interpreted as Moscow's willingness to take even tougher measures, and as a demonstration of muscles on the eve of the next meeting of R.T. Erdogan and V.V. Putin in order to discuss pressing issues.

Of course, what happened cannot be compared with the operation carried out by Israel on the ship "Mavi Marmara" on May 30, 2010 off the coast of Gaza, because there was no lethal outcome.  The latter, along with other factors, can also explain Ankara's restrained attitude to what happened on August 13. However, it would be wrong to expect a sharp reaction from Turkey to this operation of the Russian Federation. In particular, because Turkey covers more than half of its energy needs at the expense of Russia and therefore constantly experiences a current deficit of $40-$50 billion, and a sharp protest against Moscow's actions can cost it dearly. If the friendship between the owner of the Kremlin and the owner of the Beshtepe Palace is still preserved, then a rather restrained attitude to the operation on the bulk carrier allows us to hope for an equalization of the situation.

 However, against the background of the search for the ground for a meeting between the presidents of Turkey and Russia (according to Deutsche Welle, before the upcoming G-20 summit of heads of state and government in Delhi on September 9-10, Erdogan will meet with Putin in Moscow, which is being prepared for), all Ankara's efforts to establish relations with other countries are so far in vain.

Meanwhile, Turkey's intentions in this regard are very serious: the May return of Syria to the Arab League and the meetings of Iranian Foreign Minister H.  Abdollahiana in Saudi Arabia, including with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (August 18, Jeddah), consolidating the rapprochement between the two countries that began in March, talk about possible changes in the balance of power in the region.

Moreover, while continuing to maintain a contingent of its troops in Libya, Syria, Iraq and Qatar in the conditions of the economic crisis it is experiencing (which could not be done in Azerbaijan), Ankara also takes care of about 60 thousand jihadists in Idlib and finances the Syrian Liberation Army, which can finally paralyze Turkey.   And there is such a possibility, because despite all efforts, the government has not yet achieved attracting real foreign investment to the country, and by "updating" the figures of the program activated in December 2021 by the then Minister of Finance and Treasury N. Nebati on the instructions of President Erdogan, it again took unpopular measures: raising gasoline prices from 10 Turkish lira per the authorities, having received a certain profit, emptied the treasury during the presidential elections on May 14/28, and now, having increased these prices from 20 t.l. to 40 t.l. over the past 60 days. they threaten to ruin the treasury again, which they will undoubtedly achieve.

It is clear that the finances received by the treasury as a result of at least a 100% (maybe 150%, 200%) increase in fuel prices and tax increases will again be fully used to hold municipal elections in 2024 and to cover expenses if the ruling party wins these elections.

And this will continue until the authorities carry out radical reforms, especially in agriculture, and will not be able to stimulate with serious privileges the relocation of at least half of the population of large cities to villages.

The exclusion of the country's industrialists loyal to the principles of the republic (for example, the 100-year-old Koch Holding) from participating in large tenders, coupled with the fact that even manufacturers paying unprecedented taxes (for example, the Ülker group of companies) prefer to invest in projects abroad, spontaneously increases the burden of other manufacturers. And inflationary and devaluation pressures, which make banks richer, continue to threaten the existence of the system.

So what kind of political progress can we talk about in such conditions? Since the stagnation in the economy (although this is not yet the Brezhnev stagnation of the 1970s) directly affects politics, the political picture of the country can easily be imagined: stagnation and pessimism reigned at the press conference of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on May 15.

And then there is the empty journalism of Turkey, which is becoming more and more selfish and therefore more and more cynical. It was as if the press conference was held not by Imamoglu, but by journalists asking him questions...