Turkey on the ay leading from Mosul to Idlib

The results of the September 7 Tehran summit, which focused on Idlib, the key point for the territorial integrity of Syria, seemed to be known in advance. Andrei Kolesnikov, special correspondent for the Kommersant newspaper, who briefed President V. Putin, said laconically from Tehran: "Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke of a truce, and Vladimir Putin, on the contrary, spoke about a powerful military operation. In the final statement, there was no mention of a truce. It seems that President Erdogan hurriedly admitted to becoming excited, especially since it was much easier to say this at dinner. "(https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3736729).

In fact, when reading foreign journalists" fragments about the course of the Tehran summit, the parties clearly did not change their positions after the "Astana process" starting in January 2017. Turkey wanted a state structure of Sunni groups in at least one quarter of Syria and up until the end continued to insist on dispelling jihadist groups from Idlib. But seeing Russia's determination to conduct military operations in the region, Turkey began to talk in unison with Western countries and preferred to use the notions of "chemical weapons," "civilian victims" and "refugees."

Even if the intention of President R. Erdogan"s arrival in Tehran with the password "ceasefire" can be seen in this, his inability get this condition accepted made Ankara's task much more difficult. In fact, on the Syrian issue, Ankara has always trod a complicated path. So, if until March of this year, "Syrian" policy was conducted in the "soft diplomacy" framework of then President Abdullah Gul, after which the duo Erdogan-Davutoglu (then foreign minister), for reasons unknown even to Gul, seized the initiative. Davutoglu first tried to force Assad, the Syrian head of state, to resign. When Assad rejected the demand, Ankara tried to create a union of 100 countries against Damascus called "Friends of Syria" and even held an Istanbul meeting with the same name in April 2012.

Washington realized before Ankara that Assad would not leave willingly, so in August 2012 in Istanbul, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced that America would "no longer provide assistance to Syrian refugees." The United States then distanced itself from the Syrian question for a while, until the attacks of LIH on the northern Syrian Kurdish canton of Koban. Approximately three weeks after H. Clinton"s speech, Prime Minister R. Erdogan stated that "Inshallah, one of these days we will make a prayer in the Alawite Mosque in Damascus", as if he took responsibility for Assad"s removal from power.

ISIL announces "State and Caliphate" in the Turkish consulate

After Assad retreated from Kurdish ruled north-eastern regions of Syria, in the summer of 2013, ultra-radical Islamic groups backed by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar, concentrated in the region under the aegis of ISIL (Islamic State Iraq and the Levant).

Significantly strengthened materially, this bloody terrorist organization, including countless fighters in its ranks from China to Europe, from Russia to Afghanistan, entered the Iraqi city of Mosul on June 11, 2014, and on June 29 declared the "Islamic State" and the Caliphate at the Consulate General of Turkey in Mosul. ISIL then moved to Baghdad, but when it failed to capture the Iraqi capital, ISIL attacked the Kurdish cantons in Syria. Then Turkey, with US knowledge and support, allowed the Peshmerg detachments from Northern Iraq safe passage through the Shanlıurfa region to help the Kurds of Kobane (October 29, 2014).

On September 30, 2015, Russia introduced its armed forces into Syria and sent the ship "Admiral Kuznetsov" to the Mediterranean following the UN Security Council's approval and Bashar Assad"s appeal that his country was 78% occupied and his army no longer had strength to fight. A December 2016 report by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to President Vladimir Putin reported that in the last 15 months 35,000 terrorists, 488 tanks, 28,000 conventional weapons, and 1,500 missiles were destroyed.

At that time, the Russian media daily published personal information about the transfer of most militants to Syria through Turkish territory. It is interesting that the most violent reaction to the cleansing of Aleppo from terrorist groups was shown by some supporting organizations in Turkey. As the militants were being squeezed towards Idlib, Turkey would vigorously defend the "the necessity of separating the radicals from the moderates," each time behind closed doors, and Russia would place before Ankara maps of the "moderates"" weapons store and lists of their actions. And the question of why ISIL declared itself a state not in the Mosul viceroyalty or municipality, but rather in the Mosul Consulate General of Turkey remains unanswered.

The picture formed on the eve of the Idlib operation, from Turkey"s point of view

1. From the point of view of religion: despite unlimited financial support, it was again not possible to create a "Sunni-Wahhabi state" in one corner of Syria.

2. From the ethnic point of view: The Kurds, to whom Hafiz and Bashar Assad did not even issue identity cards, having established their autonomous regions in Syria, became the closest allies of the United States.

3. From an economic point of view: another goal of the forces aimed at overthrowing Assad and creating the Sunni-Wahhabi state was to ensure Qatar's liquefied gas transport to European markets through Syria, and thereby inflict a heavy economic blow on Russia. But this plan was not implemented.

4. From a geopolitical point of view: Russia once again has confirmed its main paradigm of never giving up secular Syria and not allowing the creation of a Sunni-Wahhabi state in this region. The Middle East and the Persian Gulf regions were once again divided into spheres of influence: the Gulf countries are completely under the hegemony of the United States; Iran became the main leader of the Shiite presence in the region; and Russia guaranteed the impossibility of building a Sunni-Wahhabi state in the region, by increasing its bases on the Mediterranean from 1 to 2.

5. Now Turkey, sheltering 3.2 million refugees, is concerned about the possible influx of refugees from Idlib.