While matters become more definite

As the scope of the sanctions expands, Washington’s interests and aspirations are also beginning to become obvious. Budget Act of 2020 adopted in Congress envisages sanctions not only on F-35 and S-400, but also on the “TurkStream” project. President Trump earlier said that “he would approve the defense budget”. What is interesting is that it is planned to impose sanctions to Turkey on the “TurkStream” project and to Russia on the “Nord Stream” project. The imposition of sanctions to two countries at the same time in relation to natural gas pipelines is not so common example of international economic relations. Why?

On December 3-4, everyone saw that the main goal of the NATO summit in London was “to prevent both Russian natural gas from being pumped with the “Nord Stream” line to Europe and Russia’s maritime transport in the Arctic”. In the decision of sanction in Congress, Washington wants to block Russia in the Black Sea too by raising the "TurkStream". We have written that the “TurkStream”, of which first phase was opened on November 19, 2018, is a deep breath for Russia, and Ankara has been very kind to Moscow in this issue. Washington, of course, has seen this “goodness” of Ankara too and made the necessary notes. Specific steps will be taken in the 2020 budget and the list of sanctions will be included in the “TurkStream” too. In case of the President’s approval, the sanctions will come into force. But what will happen next? Will Russia not be able to transport gas to Europe via the “TurkStream” pipeline under the Black Sea? What will happen if it tries to transport? How far will the scope and impact of the sanctions be?

Apparently, these questions have possessed the brain of Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs too, which has shown one of the toughest reactions to the former ally: “Despite all obligations were fulfilled within the framework of this law, unfair obstruction of our country’s participation in the F-35 program, the repetition of the sanction for the purchase of the S-400; likewise, proposing the “TurkStream” project for the agenda demonstrate that Congress disrespects the decisions we have made as an independent country and that its unreasoning position continues.”

Yes, at the opening ceremony of the “TurkStream”, President Erdogan said that “despite the protests and pressures from the international forces, they have completed the first phase of the project. If the statement of Ministry of Foreign Affairs points to the same point, what does it mean? Is this Turkey’s adherence to its alliance, or “its attempts to strengthen its independence” in areas that are in conflict with Western interests?

Although it is clear to all that Turkey’s attempts to strengthen its independence are justified steps, at some points of the framework of international interests and relations, being opposite of the interests of the allies creates problems for Ankara. Although President Erdogan skillfully uses these problems in domestic politics, sanctions on the purchase of weapons and energy area can cause headaches in the medium and long term.

 The sanctions against the “TurkStream” are a huge blow to Russia’s interests not only in the Black Sea, but in the Mediterranean. If the sanctions come into force, it will be impossible for Russia to talk about the continuation of the “South Stream” project. The essence of the sanctions of the great powers is not only to thwart the implemented plans, but also to prevent any future plans to be implemented.

I do not doubt that Ankara is well aware of this specifically regarding the sanctions on the “TurkStream”.