Azerbaijan Foreign Trade 2024: Statistical Analysis and Devaluation Expectations
Macroeconomy
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For many years, we have been stating that the average monthly salary in the country does not reflect the real income level of the population. This is because the average monthly salary is inflated due to the high wages in the oil and gas sector and the public sector. For example, in January-November 2024, the average monthly nominal salary of employees in the national economy increased by 8.0% compared to the same period in 2023, reaching 996.8 AZN. Salaries in the oil and gas sector stood at 3,717 AZN, while in the non-oil and gas sector, it was 947 AZN.
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The paradoxical development trajectory of resource-rich states is described with various epithets. A wide array of terms is used in this context: "resource curse," "devil's excrement," "distorted development," "African fever," "Dutch disease," "paradox of plenty," and so on. Qatar, which leads the world in GDP per capita, also uses another intriguing phrase: “children of oil.”
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The State Statistics Committee (SSC) has released the macroeconomic indicators of the country's economic and social development for January-December 2024[1]. Let’s review the most significant of these indicators.
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As 2025 begins, Azerbaijan faces a convergence of economic and geopolitical challenges that threaten its stability and test its resilience. From fluctuating oil prices to shifting alliances, the country is at a critical juncture, requiring bold reforms and strategic foresight to avert economic instability.
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