Experts on Possibility of Azerbaijani-Armenian Economic Relations

Baku / 02.12.20 / Turan: The Minister of Economy of Armenia, Vahan Kerobyan, appointed after Armenia's defeat in the war, spoke about the usefulness of Azerbaijani-Armenian economic relations, and even suggested the sale of Armenian goods in Azerbaijan. Though rare, such statements can still be found in the Armenian media. So far, Armenians react to such ideas aggressively and negatively.

What do Azerbaijani experts think about economic and possibly political relations between the parties to the recent war?

Arastun Orujlu, head of the East-West analytical center, believes that any relations between the two countries can be established after a peace treaty with mutual recognition of the sovereignty, statehood and territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and Armenia.

He told Turan that the November 10 ceasefire declaration provides for the unblocking of communications (without specifying which ones) and the restoration of economic relations. The signing of this document by the heads of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia can give it the status of an agreement in the field of economic relations.

“I consider the statement of the new Minister of Economy of Armenia on relations with Azerbaijan and the use of Turkish ports premature. All this can be realized after the conclusion of a peace treaty. I believe that economic relations are impossible without this comprehensive document. Russia wants to restore Armenia and Karabakh after the collapse, is going to return the Armenian community to Azerbaijan, and this is evident in propaganda broadcasts from Moscow. Moscow needs Armenians for geopolitical tasks. One gets the impression that Russia wants to raise Armenians with Azerbaijani funds. They talk about the construction of a new road through the Lachin corridor and restoration of the railway through Meghri. But Moscow did not undertake economic obligations, and from this it is clear that Russia wants to carry out these works at the expense of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan should use its resources sparingly, knowing about the coming world crisis and the need to restore our economy after the war. Therefore, I think that without a big peace treaty, our economic relations with Armenia are erroneous,” A. Orujlu said.

Political scientist Ilgar Velizadeh does not see Azerbaijan's economic interest in Armenia. "The Minister of Economy of Armenia is "probing" the possibility of relations with Azerbaijan, but before talking about economic ties with Azerbaijan, let Armenia first raise the economy of its country. Armenia is an uninteresting market for Azerbaijan," the expert told Turan.

“For Azerbaijan, the territory of Armenia is interesting, insofar as the road that belongs to the Russian CJSC South Caucasus Railroad, with which Baku has excellent relations, passes along it. The operator in the Azerbaijani traffic through the territory of Armenia is not Yerevan, but the SCR, which will determine the cost of traffic for Azerbaijani goods. Armenia needs an Azerbaijani transit route to Russia. This project is real. Other projects discussed in Armenia are now more in the field of fantasy,” I. Velizadeh said.

Former director of the Center for Strategic Studies under the President of Azerbaijan, Farhad Mammadov, in an interview with Turan, began by saying that for some economic contacts, the establishment of diplomatic relations between Baku and Yerevan is not necessary. “The restoration of traffic on the railway section passing through the Armenian Meghri (operated in the USSR), planned in the ninth paragraph of the trilateral Statement (November 10, 2020), is possible without diplomatic relations, since the entire railway in Armenia belongs to Russia, and according to the Statement, the mentioned section will be guarded by Russian border guards. Construction materials for the restoration of houses destroyed by the war in Karabakh are imported from Russia through Azerbaijan, cargo is checked at the Azerbaijani-Russian border, that is, work in the Armenian-populated Karabakh is possible without the participation of Armenia. There are plans to build new roads in Karabakh. From Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan, Armenia and Turkey, and from there to Europe, we can send our goods and goods of other countries today. It would be correct to call these opportunities not economic cooperation, but economic contacts,” Mammadov said.

“Real Azerbaijani-Armenian economic relations can exist after the establishment of bilateral diplomatic relations. But Azerbaijan does not need such connections, so in 30 years it has built its infrastructure outside the territory of Armenia. If we recall the Memorandum of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway transport route, then Armenia's participation in it is envisaged if it recognizes the borders of the signatories of the Memorandum. However, Armenia is still encroaching on Azerbaijani territory, and the "NKR" is mentioned there. On the other hand, Turkey can end the economic blockade of Armenia, as the occupation of Kalbajar, due to which the Turks closed the border with Armenia in 1994, ended. Then Ankara changed the wording, indicating the aggression of Armenia against Azerbaijan as the reason. But from January 1, 2021, according to the Armenian law, Turkish goods will stop flowing to Armenia. Yerevan has driven itself into an economic blockade. Of course, Azerbaijan and Turkey live successfully without economic ties with Armenia. If Yerevan really hopes for the normalization of interstate relations with Azerbaijan, then they must remove the obstacles they have erected,” concluded Farhad Mammadov.

At the end, we add that in one of his speeches, President I. Aliyev stated that any of his negotiations with Armenia are possible, but not with Nikol Pashinyan. —0—