Experts on the results of the Moscow meeting

Baku/12.01.21/Turan: The Moscow meeting of the leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia and the Russian Federation, resulting in  signing agreements on the restoration of rail and road communications in the region, were ambiguously perceived by politicians and experts in Baku

MP Sabir Rustamkhanli said that the Azerbaijani society was expecting some unpleasant surprise from the Moscow meeting. However, the document signed in Moscow meets the interests of Azerbaijan. “The opening of communications, the restoration of the railway and the construction of a highway between Nakhchivan and the rest of Azerbaijan are positive.

 If Armenia thinks about the future, then it has no other choice but to live in peace with Azerbaijan and Turkey. The Armenian community of Nagorno-Karabakh can continue to live in Karabakh, but if they have other intentions, then let them not think that the peacekeepers will fight for them, Rustamkhanli said.

Economist Gubad Ibadoglu believes that the Moscow meeting demonstrated that Russia has its own interests. “Transport and infrastructure are of the greatest interest to Russia. It seeks to take control of the existing and newly created infrastructure. It is important for Russia to take a dominant position in projects on the territory of Azerbaijan and Armenia. Karabakh remains an instrument for realizing this.

However, he believes that the likelihood of war in the region remains. “If the conflict remains unresolved, then there is always the possibility of war. There is no peace treaty yet and the parties are dissatisfied with the current agreement,” the expert said.

At the same time, a war is unlikely to start in the near future, since Russia is able to control the situation. However, over time, Armenia can return to a military solution, he believes.

Russia is in a hurry, because it wants to be the only force in the South Caucasus. In addition, the United States already has a new president, and Moscow is trying to prevent a new player from entering the region, Ibadogu said.

Political scientist Shahin Jafarli believes that Baku is concerned not only with the road to Nakhchivan, but also with the restoration of control over the part of Karabakh, which remained under Armenian control. This refers to the return of Azerbaijanis to Karabakh; the fate of the armed formations in Karabakh; the question of local authorities and its leaders; the question of the composition and mandate of the Russian peacekeepers; opening of the Agdara-Kalbajar road.

These issues will likely be discussed within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group; and will become the subject of a large peace agreement, Jafarli believes.

Referring to Russia's interest in restoring transport communications, he noted that reliable land and rail links with Armenia would greatly simplify trade relations between Russia and Armenia, which now depends on the only land road through Georgia. In winter, traffic on the Georgian Military Highway is difficult or stops.

In addition, the Georgian government does not permit the transportation of military supplies to Armenia, which complicates the position of the Russian military base in Armenia.

Another problem is that Armenia has no borders with the Eurasian Economic Union. The emergence of a route through Azerbaijan will connect Armenia with Russia. In the future, this may simplify the issue of Azerbaijan's entry into the EurAsEC, and convince Baku to agree to the creation of a Russian military base in Karabakh. —06D-