Gazprom is unlikely to go agree to modernize the gas pipeline through Armenia," the Georgian political scientist

Baku/10.08.17/Turan: "Cooperation in the field of energy between Georgia and Azerbaijan has a long history. What is especially important is the history of positive relations and it is based on the simple fact that we need each other," Turan responded to a recent statement about the gasification of Georgia by the new energy minister, Ilya Eloshvili, a political analyst at the Institute for Strategic Studies of that country Gela Vasadze.

In an interview with the local newspaper Eloshvili noted that the process of gasification of Georgia by the Georgian "daughter" of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) is going according to the schedule, and by the end of the year the obligations of SOCAR Georgia on gas supply to 250,000 Georgian subscribers will be fully met, and even exceed this figure. According to him, the gasification works cover most areas outside of Tbilisi, and at the moment most of the gas imported by Georgia comes from Azerbaijan (90%), which, since 2007, has gradually replaced Russian gas after the pipeline explosions. In addition, a number of SOCAR subsidiaries are successfully operating in Georgia.

"For Georgia Azerbaijan is a source of gas, and for Azerbaijan our country has become a road for energy exports to the world. Is there an alternative to this cooperation? Theoretically yes. Georgia could buy gas from Russia, and Azerbaijan could also export its energy resources through Russia. But in either case, this means childish dependence on the northern neighbor, and what this threatens is well known in Tbilisi and Baku. So everything here is natural and mutually beneficial. Of course, Georgia has an alternative opinion that it would be good to share gas supplies and distribution in the regions. But arguments in the way of the fact that everything should not be given in one hand, seem do not seem very convincing," Vasadze said.

Regarding the cost of Azerbaijani "blue fuel" for Georgian consumers, he noted that "... firstly, Georgia has a commission for regulating energy prices, and without it no one can raise the price. Secondly, with this level of interdependence, both sides have powerful arguments for protecting their interests. So I do not see any threat that SOCAR gasifies the regions, he said. As for raising the price of gas, taking into account the inflation rate, and the fact that the price did not rise for more than ten years, the price hike could be more serious. But here the general fall in prices for energy carriers in world markets affected."

Turning to the issue of the strategic relationship between the two countries in the field of politics and economy, which is one of the key aspects of the energy security of the neighboring country, as the new Georgian energy minister said, it is noteworthy that Russia receives 10% of Russian gas supplies to Armenia in Russia As payment for its transit. "Without this cooperation, Georgia will remain without gas, and Azerbaijan will not be able to sell its oil and gas. Naturally, this is a key aspect of the security of both countries. For the transit of Russian gas to Armenia, Georgia is now receiving a cash payment. This year, Georgia buys Azerbaijani gas for this money. No one knows what will be the next year, perhaps the scheme will be the same," Vasadze is sure.

Touching on the resonant desire of official Yerevan to participate in the transit of Iranian gas to Europe via Georgia, the political scientist noted that this proposal remains at the level of speculation: "It is unclear how realistic it is. The attitude to it among experts in the field of energy is, of course, positive, because the more gas pipelines, the better. Another issue is that most experts are skeptical about the prospects of the project, primarily because the gas transportation system of Armenia is in the hands of Gazprom, and they are unlikely to go for the modernization of the gas pipeline through Armenia. Why let such a competitor as Iran? In addition, the regime of sanctions operates against Iran, as well as against Russia. "

One should not exclude the possibility that Georgia faced a difficult choice, on the one hand, being behind the scenes the energy and military-political ally of Azerbaijan in the conditions of the created geopolitical axis Baku-Tbilisi-Ankara, on the other, this neighboring country maintains friendly relations with Armenia. At the same time, Baku does not comment on the media reports on the agreement between Moscow and Tbilisi to restore direct communication between Armenia and Russia through the territory of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Apparently, the leadership of Azerbaijan is waiting for explanations from official Tbilisi on this issue, believe in local expert circles. The position of our interlocutor on this issue is as follows: "There is no such agreement, and it is unlikely to be," Vasadze said.

In general, as Eloshvili recently said, the strategic relationship between the two countries in the field of politics and economy is one of the key aspects of the country's energy security. At present, Azerbaijan is the main supplier of natural gas to Georgia. The supply of fuel is provided by SOCAR from the volumes of gas extracted from its own fields. In addition, Georgia receives gas through the South Caucasus gas pipeline from the Shah Deniz field.--0--