Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Yerevan

The results of the  visit of  Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Yerevan  is in the center of attention of political observers, however, little information does not allow to draw clear conclusions. Nevertheless, it is clear that in Yerevan  Lavrov repeated the same  what he said in Baku – the return of  territories around Karabakh in exchange for the status of Karabakh. This opinion was confirmed by the "Kommersant" newspaper, citing a source in the delegation Lavrov.

In particular, Moscow is willing to return to the Kazan project of  settlement, which  Azerbaijan  refused in 2011. Thus, a source in the Russian delegation told the newspaper that "the Azerbaijani leadership is responsible for the fact that in the same 2011 the agreement on the settlement of the Karabakh conflict agreed due to the diplomatic efforts of the then President Dmitry Medvedev , was not signed: the leader Serzh Sargsyan generally agreed with the document, but the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev unexpectedly put forward a dozen amendments  unacceptable to the Armenian side. "

According to the sources close to the OSCE Minsk Group, a compromise version  proposed now by the international mediators looks like this: Armenia returns  under  the control of Azerbaijan five (out of seven) regions  around Nagorno-Karabakh, which  Armenia currently controls in whole or in part. Azerbaijan also takes off the economic blockade of Armenia. Nagorno-Karabakh is given a temporary status that guarantees its safety and self-government, and the question of holding a referendum on its final status and the status of the two remaining regions  will be postponed.

This scenario also provides  deployment of peacekeepers in the conflict zone and international assistance in mine clearance. In addition, internally displaced persons and refugees will be able to return to the  region. According to "Kommersant" interviewees, these proposals are largely based on the "Madrid principles" proposed by the OSCE Minsk Group in 2007 (and updated later.)

In Baku Lavrov also said that a proposal  are lying on the table for a long time, but there is disagreement over the sequence of certain items. Analysts  of Turan agency believe that the stumbling block is the question of a referendum on Karabakh's status. Baku will never agree to separating this region from Azerbaijan, that is why it is impossible to speak of "harmonization" in this case. Also unlikely scenario is that the Armenians will agree to autonomy within Azerbaijan. Therefore, under the current situation, we can predict the further aggravation of the front, which will inevitably impact the internal political situation in Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Taking into account the increased power of the Azerbaijani army, it is possible to predict the further liberation of the occupied territories. This process, and the casualties of the Armenian side, will inevitably deepen the current crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. Growth of discontent could bring  to the political scene radical forces in the face of the former commander of the forces of Karabakh Samvel Babayan and his supporters-militants. Aggravation of the situation can be completed by a military coup or a voluntary resignation of the current leadership of Karabakh separatists. In this case, the processes  on the front will  be no longer dependent on the will of Yerevan. The logical continuation of this will be the transition of crisis from Karabakh to Armenia, and the change of power is there.

It is possible that under such a situation would be important the return  of  such figures as  Robert Kocharyan, Arkady Ghukasian and a number of ex-military to politics. However, the Armenian society can resist the temptation to be again under the leadership of Karabakh Armenians, and will try to find a new leader among the "friends". An indirect confirmation of  the reality  of  such scenario are the protests in Yerevan on Friday. Their distinctive point  was the anti-Russian rhetoric and demanding  the resignation of the military and political leadership in Yerevan and Karabakh.-02В-