Steinmeier Formula is signed, what is next?

The Ukrainian blogosphere has sparked a call to boycott the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) after Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin in Baku, followed by an agreement between SOCAR and Gazprom on cooperation in the gas business. This reaction reflects a complex web of emotions and political calculations in Ukraine, a country deeply scarred by Russia's ongoing aggression. Ukrainian authorities remain silent on the matter, and there seems to be a general sense of indifference in society, although the prevailing sentiments are far from straightforward.

In Azerbaijan, there are 1,270 enterprises operating with Russian capital. Among these, "Lukoil" leads in terms of investment volume. "Lukoil" is the main company representing Russia's energy interests in Azerbaijan's oil sector. "Lukoil" is involved not only in exploration, production, and transportation within Azerbaijan's oil sector but also in marketing and sales activities. Since 1993, the "Lukoil" Group[1] has been represented in Azerbaijan's retail fuel market with 63 gas stations and one oil depot with a storage capacity of approximately 6,400 cubic meters[2]. "Lukoil" is also the dealer of LLK-International LLC, the first supplier of lubricants and technical fluids in Azerbaijan.

Immediately following the agreement to expand the strategic partnership between Gazprom and SOCAR, Azerbaijan's government-affiliated[1] and pro-Russian[2] media[3] published articles against official Kyiv in response to a campaign[4] by Ukrainian consumers boycotting SOCAR's fuel stations. On May 31, 2024, Palestinian activists in Turkey organized an attack on SOCAR's Istanbul office[5] due to its fuel sales to Israel. Besides Ukraine and Turkey, SOCAR operates fuel stations under the "SOCAR" brand in Georgia, Romania, Switzerland, and Austria, and under the "A1" brand in Austria[6].

For the first time since launching a full-scale war against Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made an official state visit to the South Caucasus, specifically to Baku. The timing of Putin’s visit to the South Caucasus is no coincidence, as it occurs amid growing tendencies to distance from Russia in the region, with the Armenian government and the Georgian people increasingly advocating for accelerated integration with the West. Additionally, talks are ongoing regarding the opening of the Armenia-Turkey border.