100th anniversary of APR: Hopes for Dialogue Failed

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- Before signing the pardon order, certain expectations were formed, in particular regarding political prisoners. So, in some forecasts it was stressed that this time there will be more political prisoners in the list of pardoned people than before. However, in reality it turned out differently. What do you think the authorities want to say?

- Indeed, during the discussions that arose around the holding of early presidential elections, such assumptions were made. There were even such predictions that after the elections, political and legal reforms will be held, early parliamentary elections will be held, all political prisoners will be released and relations between the government and the opposition will be settled in a new plane. All this was due to the vague reaction of authoritative international structures and leading states of the world, the inability of the authorized representatives of the authorities to explain by any reasonable socio-political and legal arguments the election's precedence, as well as hopes for the possibility of the country's withdrawal from the crisis through reforms. In my speeches of that time, I kept trying to convey to the active part of society that it is impossible to make correct forecasts on political issues in the countries that are not free, in accordance with the index of freedom. In these countries, political decision-making mechanisms are unknown. They can do what meets the private interests of the authorities, some external factors and the mood of the subject of political will. And any assumptions can neither be confirmed nor refuted. And henceforth it will be so. As for the "pardon" of political prisoners, there are two main factors. The first of them is based on the desire of the authorities to sow fear in the society. They want to show people that, without fearing anyone, they can arrest at any time and by court order, keep innocent people in prison for 5-10 years. That international pressure on the country, internal public opinion does not matter to them. The second factor is that such "pardon" does not "correct" convicted persons. Observations show that the "pardon" decrees of recent years do not bring political dividends to the government, do not reduce criticism from the opposition, do not increase obedience to the authorities and do not receive loud international approval. The majority of political prisoners, who are subject to the "pardon" order, as well as independent and opposition-minded people, do not consider such orders an example of humanism. "Pardon" is then considered an example of humanism, when people convicted by a court of justice, having served a part of their punishment established by law, are recognized by the court as not presenting a threat to the society that do not need to serve a full term of punishment and receive a pardon. Such decisions have a positive impact on the system of relations in society and are of a corrective nature. But the practice of "pardoning" people who are innocent, convicted for various reasons, is for them the greatest moral torture. So, recently, when signing the decree on "pardon" the government began to take this trend into account.

- A wave of arrests has started again. A criminal case against PFPA members was opened. Participants of the march dedicated to the 100th anniversary of the ADR are arrested. How can we all understand this: do the authorities want to instill fear of society with these actions or let them know that there will be no changes in politics during the next 7 years?

- It would be wrong to consider the last arrests in isolation from the previous ones. Such arrests have already become regular. When considering domestic policy, it becomes clear that this is a manifestation of the highest political will and is used as a form of government. The opening of criminal cases against PPFA members in recent days is also designed to preserve the atmosphere of fear. However, the action organized by the youth of the PPFA "Arrest me!", Even temporarily, but dealt a psychological blow to a number of government plans to promote fear. The persecution gave the opposite effect, which is confirmed by the fact that the events held in connection with the celebration of the 100th anniversary of the ADR, had a much greater resonance. The festive events held near the Independence Monument and on Nizami Street, as well as in the village of Novkhani, were significantly different in their mass character and enthusiasm. And the administrative arrests of the member of the Mejlis of the REAL Party Azer Gasimli and other activists are connected with these successful actions. The authorities are seriously concerned about the dismantling of the atmosphere of fear in the society and the beginning of democratic processes. They feel that their social base is becoming weaker. Because of the decline in living standards, discontent is growing among the population. For illegal actions, they are regularly discussed in international structures. Democratic political processes in the region are deepening. Especially the authorities and society of Azerbaijan are psychologically influenced by the peaceful democratic changes taking place in Armenia. The instinct of self-preservation of authority worked. And the growth of persecutions against the opposition, in which the most active part of the society has concentrated, is connected with this. The authorities believe that by arrests of active persons it will be possible to maintain an atmosphere of fear in society and thereby save themselves for another 7 years.

- There is an opinion that the authorities take such measures for the reason that they themselves are afraid. That is, fearing the dissatisfied crowd, even to the smallest shares, show intolerance, try to suppress even the quietest voice of discontent. Do you agree with this opinion?

- In recent years, political changes taking place in non-free and partially free countries have given serious lessons. The moderate reaction of the authorities to mass protests leads to a peaceful, democratic, velvet, and tough reaction to a bloody and destructive revolution. Suppressing the smallest initiatives, from time to time flaring out protests, the government is trying to prevent this process. Professional observations show that in our country, discontent among the population is very high. But it was not yet fully formed to turn into a protest. But when it develops into a protest, no power can stop it. An analysis of all the actions of the authorities shows that they are aware of the scale of discontent in the country, take preventive measures against the likelihood of a protest movement that may flare up at any moment. The authorities conduct preemptive measures not with political means, not with reforms, but only with the help of the state's law enforcement agencies. So far, she manages to manage public opinion, to represent herself as strong and monolithic, and also to retain control over society and the opposition. But, at the same time, it is only natural that she is afraid of protests. Because in the country as a whole the system of relations is broken, and in this situation stable stability is impossible.

- However, some expect reforms from the authorities. But, apparently, until she sees it necessary. And how are you? Do you expect reform?

- Power, governing the state in this form, actually believes in the continuation of its safe existence. And there are almost no special protests in the society. And the people do not join the protest actions organized by the opposition from time to time. Any monitoring shows that the society is not inclined to collective protests. People can still individually solve their social problems. In addition, for ordinary citizens this way is safer and not risky. So the power comes in accordance with the actual real state of society. Any economic and political reform can lead to unexpected social and political unrest in the society. Although I do not believe that the authorities will go to any serious reforms, but I believe in the need for reform. Without them, any positive hopes for the political and economic future of this country are impossible.

- When can reforms be carried out? When can the authorities start the reforms?

- No sociological and political laws allow us to predict when the Azerbaijani authorities decide to proceed with reforms. Since the existing management regime in the country cannot be identified with any of the classical forms of government. In our country there is a very peculiar and mixed regime. From the scientific point of view, the dictatorship absorbed certain elements of authoritarianism, totalitarianism, monarchy and democracy. And the steps taken by such regimes cannot be predicted. And in a flash you can witness unexpected changes. If you remember when oil prices began to fall on world markets, the government spoke every day of economic and structural reforms. But as soon as oil prices went up, the government again forgot about the reforms. Apparently, the government does not have any package of reforms. A seasonal approach applies to oil prices. Despite the fact that most experts talk about the need for reforms in the country, no one can say exactly when it should be done. For the personal political interests of the authorities are much higher than the interests of the state and citizens. And the constant continuous provision of these interests as a whole excludes reforms.

- Where can the country go without reforms with the current course of events? What do you think, what is the way out for the government, for the people, and for the country?

- In the country with growing unemployment, poverty, lawlessness, social tension is growing in parallel. The number of citizens wishing to emigrate from the country has already grown. Today, the authorities have become more aggressive towards citizens who are striving for active struggle. But the worst thing is that among the mature citizens there are no people who trust the state. The majority of the population of the country psychologically prepared themselves for the fact that the present socio-political situation will become even worse. On the one hand, republican television channels played a part in this "preparation," and on the other hand, unfortunately, independent, influential and opposition figures of the society. Sometimes careless expressions used by someone in an objective analysis of the real situation are postponed in the subconscious of people. The majority, having heard that in the future the general situation will deteriorate even more, instead of joining the active struggle, on the contrary, resigns to the existing situation. Meanwhile, the great communicative potential of social networks, contributed to the transition to a new stage in the activation of society. Despite the obvious lack of professionalism, the rapid growth of alternative sources of information led to new political discussions. The development of political activity in the country is on an ascending path. The ranks grow and those who understand that this cannot continue. Despite increased pressure from the government, in the current circumstances it will be impossible to neutralize the opposition, to condemn society to a long-term routine. The socio-political situation in the country is complex and contradictory. To defend its position, the authorities expect to use the administrative resources at its disposal. And the success of the opposition depends on the attitude of the people to its protest actions. However, something is not yet visible, so that the opposition offers a conceptual solution to the way out of the present state of apathy. If we ignore the likely role of internal and external force majeure events in a drastic change in the situation, it should be noted that so far society is not a leading factor in political processes. Finally, if politically-legal and economic reforms are not conducted in the country, the state's security system will be under threat of destruction. The government's refusal to unjustified persistence and the release of all political prisoners could be an ideal stabilizing option. In addition, the implementation of fundamental economic reforms, fundamental changes in electoral legislation and holding fair parliamentary elections are very significant for the future of the country issues.