Arch Puddington: Countries with oil and gas tend to be judged by different standards than countries that are energy poor

Washington/26.01.12/Turan: Freedom House’s vice-president for research Arch Puddington analyzed the current human rights situation in Azerbaijan in an interview with TURAN”s Washington DC correspondent

Question: The latest "Freedom in the World" report also indicates that Azerbaijan’s human rights record had deteriorated in 2011. Where do you think the government drives the country with these results and why does the international watchdogs' as well as western governments' criticism not change the situation towards the right direction in Azerbaijan?

Answer: There are some countries, such as Iraq and Mexico, in which human rights problems are driven as much by forces outside the government—criminal gangs or religious extremists, for example—as by the government. In Azerbaijan, however, it is the government of President Aliyev that is almost solely responsible for its poor performance.

 A decade ago, Azerbaijan was ranked as Partly Free by Freedom House. Since then, conditions have steadily worsened, and the deterioration has actually accelerated since Ilham Aliyev succeeded his father. 

While Azerbaijan’s violations of democratic norms have been condemned almost universally

by democracy and human rights monitoring organizations, they have drawn little attention from

governments, including the United States. This is due to the country’s good fortune in possessing ample energy reserves. Countries with oil and gas—Russia, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan—tend to be judged by different standards than countries that are energy poor. Azerbaijan is one of those lucky countries with oil and gas, and its violations are either ignored or minimized by democratic governments.

Question: It turns out that while 2011 was the year of democratic awakening for most of the

region, it wasn't the case of Azerbaijan. What are your predictions for 2012?

Answer: President Aliyev devotes considerable resources to ensuring that his critics are censored and that alternate perspectives are denied access to the media. Aliyev has proved adept at keeping the opposition weak, disunited, and unable to mount a serious challenge to regime policies. Had the sorts of repressive tactics that were used to quash protests in Baku last spring been used in Egypt, there would have been a worldwide outcry. But because Azerbaijan has energy, no one noticed.

I am not inclined to make predictions about developments in 2012. But I would say that the lesson of the Arab Spring is that even under the most repressive conditions, people eventually rise up and demand change. It will happen Azerbaijan, we just don’t know when.

Question: While speaking about the country's human rights records, the Azeri officials usually

deny all of the accusations, reasoning it, by its international success, e.g. being a 10-years member of CE, OSCE ODIHR, and UN bodies. Despite the human rights violation accusations, the country was elected to the UN Security Council this year, and will host the Eurovision Song Contest How would you explain this contrast? How would you describe Azerbaijan's real image in the world?

Answer: To repeat an earlier point, Azerbaijan has succeeded in creating a positive global image largely because of its energy wealth. In addition, the government makes it a point to encourage positive relations with the United States and other democratic countries. And the regime is prudent in its use of repression. It does not commit the sorts of high profile abuse that have marked the Lukashenka leadership in Belarus. Aliev does not snarl and try to provoke other countries, as does Putin in Russia. Wherever possible, Azerbaijan avoids controversy outside its borders. This is even the case in Nagorno-Karabakh. While Aliev makes clear that Azerbaijan intends to regain control, he has thus far avoided a violent clash with Armenia.

Question: As the Arab uprisings turned out to be human revolutions facilitated by the Internet

and social networks last year, how would you describe the perspectives of the “online” movements in Azerbaijan? There are some concerns that the government is blocking the web-pages, arresting the bloggers. But is seems like while releasing a handful of bloggers the government managed to decrease the level of criticism against it. What is the real situation in general?

Answer: The Aliyev regime has intensified its efforts to control internet content. Nevertheless, web sites, blogs, and social media remain an important instrument for the circulation of alternative views. The Alivev government has already spoken of adopting new controls through the criminal justice system. But the experience of other countries suggests that efforts to control the internet are generally not successful except in cases, like china, where the regime is willing to spend vast resources to police and censor new media.

 The release of the Donkey Bloggers did result in the relaxation of international human rights pressure on the government. But if there is a renewal of repression against bloggers and those involved in social media, international pressure will no doubt be revived.