Castling in the shadow of Russia

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- Prime Minister Novruz Mammadov resigned, and Ali Asadov, Assistant to the President for Economic Affairs, was appointed in his place. What do you think are the visible and invisible reasons for this resignation and appointment?

-First, I think it is more correct to say that Novruz Mammadov has been dismissed, and I think that the urgent appointment of Ali Asadov shows that everything is ready; it remains to complete this "homework". As for the reasons, there are immeasurably fewer visible reasons than invisible ones, so more will have to rely on assumptions. Of course, the talk is about assumptions based on the realities of today's political situation. In this sense, the first notable moment is the time of the replacement of the prime minister. Today in the country's media, space there is truly a wedding joy around Azerbaijani-Russian relations. Of course, we are talking primarily about the official media and information resources close to the government. The Putin-Aliyev meeting, the statement of Ilham Aliyev on Karabakh with an exclamation mark, supposedly raising relations between the two countries to a qualitatively new level, and other similar topics and discussions, sometimes reaching the point of absurdity, reveal a number of nuances. I would like to note here that all this is not only a surprise for me personally, but also a clear demonstration of the possible dynamics, which I spoke about two and a half years ago in an interview for Azadlig and a year and a half ago to you personally. Then I said, "Russia will strengthen its influence in Azerbaijan, the country will move away from other partners and, ultimately, all this will end with the replacement of political power in Azerbaijan. Today I repeat the same thoughts, and just as I say then, that if political power in Azerbaijan changes under the influence of Russia, we should not be very jealous of this, because, firstly, there is no alternative, and secondly, it"s important any changes that sway the political swamp, and not how and under whose influence it will happen. Especially when there is no choice of the necessary forms of exposure. Yes, today we can confidently say that Azerbaijan is under the complete influence of Russia, and that all visible and invisible changes in the country are due to this influence. Here I want to go beyond and explain that the once-existing West-Russian competition can now be seen only as a story, and the reality is completely different. This raises the natural question: Is it so important - who is the prime minister? Answer: Yes, even though the post of prime minister is de jure and de facto nominal from a political point of view. However, this is an effective post, the person sitting on this post is important from the point of view of importance for political intrigue. In this sense, Ali Asadov is recommended for the post of prime minister because either he is more loyal to Russia or he is more suitable for the indicated scenario. The new Prime Minister meets all the necessary requirements of the current political situation: to put it mildly, he speaks the state language very poorly (as if he does not really respect our language, otherwise, at least for 20-25 years in senior government posts I would learn the Azerbaijani language at least at the level mastered by many foreign diplomats). In addition, he previously worked as an adviser to the president for economic issues, and then as an assistant for economic issues. They say he is also very loyal to Russia. Of course, I do not exclude other reasons, but, in my opinion, the factors shown have a lot of influence on this purpose.

- This appointment is considered the victory of one of the power clans. Whose person is Ali Asadov and with which clan does he have the best relationship? What clan member is he?

-There is no victory and defeat in the ongoing fierce struggle in power. Everyone loses - a country, fighting groups, and citizens. The reason is that this struggle is quickly undermining the remnants of the mechanism of the country's political system, which is already fragile, without the support of fundamental law and mechanisms, without any separation of powers between its branches. That is, getting a high position in the hierarchy of power of any group even in the short term is more an illusion than a victory. All these types of struggles push these groups apart from each other, further complicating their unification and exacerbating the crack that has appeared inside the government. Here we can say that against the background of the struggle for power, there is a constant aggravation of the socio-economic situation, an increase in permissiveness and chaos, and in parallel with the purposeful destruction of the remaining opposition parties in the country, we can say about the direction of the country into a dangerous emptiness and chaos.

This would ultimately mean defeat for all, or rather, disaster. Touching on what Ali Asadov is known for, I think he was always especially interested in remaining a shadow figure and therefore did not cause much attention, and, speaking in political terminology, creates an impression of a technocrat more. Even a wide business of this person was not reported in the country's press. At the same time, Ali Asadov is not known as a successful person, on the contrary, this official is known for his fiasco around the "flag square", as the most unfortunate member of the team Ilham Aliyev, as the patron of the former Minister of National Security Eldar Mahmudov. I do not exclude that any group has tried or will use this appointment, but at the same time, I think, an external factor plays a big role in this appointment.

- There are talks about family ties between Ali Asadov and Eldar Mahmudov. You called him the patron saint of Mahmudov. When Eldar Mahmudov was punished, Ali Asadov was even appointed assistant to the president. How did Ali Asadov insure himself against these processes?

-I cannot say about kinship, but I do not think that Eldar Mahmudov was appointed to this post on the recommendation of Ali Asadov. The appointment of Mahmudov to the post of head of the power structure was an initiative of Ilham Aliyev"s father during his reign. At that time, there was a greater desire to appoint him the Minister of Internal Affairs, and Eldar Mahmudov was appointed to lead the Drug Enforcement Administration of the Ministry of Internal Affairs for this purpose, but, as far as I know, he was removed from this post by the efforts of Ramil Usubov and Ramiz Mehdiyev. At that time, Ilham Aliyev was preparing to come to power after Heydar Aliyev, and needed serious support from law enforcement agencies. He had known Eldar Mahmudov since his time in Moscow, and planned to appoint Mahmudov as the head of the power structure to protect his power in the future. Fortunately, Mahmudov was not allowed to advance in the Ministry of Internal Affairs, more precisely, he was soon removed from the ministry, otherwise he was even afraid to imagine what he could do by running a strong and effective police organization. When this plan did not work, Mahmudov was appointed head of the Ministry of National Security. There is no need to recall how the most intellectual organization of the state was criminalized. Azerbaijan still suffers from this appointment, and will suffer a lot. Therefore, I do not think that Ali Asadov plays any special role in this appointment, because if that were so, it would be much more difficult for him to save himself.

- What is the reason for the dismissal of Novruz Mammadov? One of the versions is that the resignation was caused by one of the latest interviews with Novruz Mammadov. That is, in reality, there was no resignation. They say that he was instructed from the top to write a letter of resignation. You voiced this version. Do you think that the government so easily abandons such devoted personnel, such as Novruz Mammadov?

- The reasons can be very different, but I still think that the main reason was that Ali Asadov had to be brought to this position. Apparently, this was an inevitable condition. Answering your first question, I said that this is not a resignation. As for the last interview with Novruz Mammadov, I am familiar with this interview, but there are no serious reasons for his removal from the post of prime minister. In this interview, Novruz Mammadov expressed the opinion that every Azerbaijani can say about his country and his people. Perhaps I think so because I am guided by my own criteria or the main annoying factor was that he gave an interview to Space, which is not loved by his family, but in any case, it does not seem convincing to me that the dismissal was caused by this interview. As is clearly understood, the authorities prepared in the kitchen and distributed in the media article said that Novruz Mammadov could not cope with his duties. Yes, during his work as prime minister, N. Mammadov remained in the memory of unpopular decisions and their cancellations, but the powers of the Prime Minister of Azerbaijan do not give him the opportunity to make some successful decisions, to achieve something. As I mentioned above, this is a nominal post because the president, who is the head of the executive branch, directly or directly runs the activities of all executive bodies, including ministries, committees and state-owned companies. Alternatively, he directs through assistants or security guards. In addition, issues related to the economic development of the country are also within its competence. In this situation, the post of prime minister actually turns into a formal one. An ironic situation arises: the presidential aide, and especially his chief of security, are becoming more influential figures than the country's top political leaders. In this case, the prime minister actually becomes the "wedding general." Perhaps you remember that the people even forgot the predecessor of Novruzov, the former prime minister, Arthur Rasizade. As for whether the government abandoned it or not, I think this is not so important. Maybe for Novruz Mammadov himself too. In any case, he repeatedly stated in his interview mentioned above that, he did not seek positions. In addition, how convincing is it that a person holding a formal, but high post of prime minister of a country can take a low or, possibly, lower position? I do not know, perhaps, only Novruz Mammadov himself can give the most accurate answer to this question.

- What will change the appointment of Ali Asadov? What changes, news will be in power politics?

-This appointment will not change anything in the socio-economic development of the country. Azerbaijan has neither a normal market economy, nor legal conditions for its functioning, nor state and government institutions that can provide such conditions. We do not have an independent judicial system that protects the functioning of legal mechanisms for the functioning of a market economy and ensures the inviolability of property, an environment of free competition; so, what changes or innovations can we talk about? If no one in the country's supreme legislative body not only opposes the appointment of a new prime minister, even if there are no neutral ones, this is a real picture of how much the principle of separation of powers in the country remains in a bitter situation. On the other hand, if a person, who worked for many years as an economic adviser to the president, and then an economic assistant, did not achieve any economic changes or development in this area, what can be expected from him, who holds the post of a prime minister with no real power? Of course, this conversation does not make sense, it is not about personalities, but about the system, such is its nature, such are the principles and mechanisms of activity that do not serve innovation and development. If the system does not change, the country will not have fundamental legal, political and economic reforms, the institutional separation of powers is not ensured, the status of ownership is not defined, and then all steps taken will protect only the hierarchy that has lost effectiveness. A visible systemic crisis with all its signs will move to its logical end. In this case, it will be much easier for foreign powers that want to keep the region under control, pushing Azerbaijan in a direction favorable to them. Especially when loyal persons are placed in all government agencies from top to bottom. This is exactly what Russia is currently doing in most post-Soviet countries, including Azerbaijan. When this plan is implemented, it is likely that a rich, bloated and clandestine oligarchy will not be needed, because it is easier to manage governments that have weak political and economic foundations.

When this plan is implemented, it is likely that a rich, bloated and clandestine oligarchy will not be needed, because it is easier to manage governments that have weak political and economic foundations.