Local and Moscow Versions of Arrest of Nakhchivan Ex-ministers

In a short time, the General Prosecutor's Office arrested the former Minister of Education of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic (NAR) Mammad Garibov and the former Minister of Internal Affairs of the NAR Ahmed Ahmedov. The reasons for the arrests have not been officially announced.

Among ordinary Nakhchivans working at Baku construction sites, two versions are in use: there is a lack of money in the budget, and those arrested will be shaken to take the loot from them. Second: the ex-ministers are associated with the Turkish terrorist organization FETÖ, and a tip on them came from Turkey.

The Azeri press is discussing more about Ahmedov's story. His brother was convicted of deceiving two citizens in the amount of 140 thousand manats, and Ahmedov himself, using his official opportunities, put pressure on the deceived people. They say about Ahmedov that, being the most obstinate subordinate of Talibov, he was looking in Baku for ways to return to the post of Minister of Internal Affairs in the autonomy, setting the authorities against the head of the NAR.

Other analysts claim a deliberate attack from Baku on the head of the NAR Vasif Talibov, who emphasized his disrespect for the central government by appearing at the Yeni Azerbaijan congress without a mask on his face.

 According to its resources, the NAR could be a self-sufficient Azerbaijani region. However, in 2019, I. Aliyev told Vasif Talibov: only 22% of the budget of Nakhchivan is formed at the expense of local revenues. This means that only 83 million out of 383 million manat is formed at the expense of local revenues, the remaining 300 million manat are subsidized from Baku.

Since 2019, Talibov, with all his desire, could not change the economy of "his region" in order to end subsidies. Perhaps, by order of the president, experts checked the Nakhchivan economy and found it in the holes deliberately created by the Talibov ministers. By removing the Nakhchivan khans, is Baku undermining Talibov?

“I thought that Vasif Talibov was swaying, but considering that he was included in the political council of the New Azerbaijan Party, it turns out that he wasn’t. But apparently, he doesn't have much time left, said Alexander Karavaev, a researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, an Azerbaijani scientist. He answered the questions of Turan agency.

- There is a popular version in Azerbaijan of replacing the Nakhchivan clan with people from the circle of the country's first lady...

- At first glance, it turns out that these decisions are most of all aimed at the community of "Nakhchivans". Hence, Azerbaijani observers, for several years now, have concluded that the Nakhchivan team has been reformatted in favor of the loyal nominees of the first vice president.

It seems to me that these solutions have a different plan. There are few key posts in Azerbaijan, so it is objectively natural that one compatriot group has become the most powerful and influential around the president. Naturally, she also takes the strikes of the sweeps more than the others, previously weakened. But why are ministers arrested there more often than, for example, in Russia? The point is the scale of influence on the economy of the oligopolies, directly, without intermediate economic agents tied to the chair of the head of the department. In Russia, this also exists, especially in the 2010s around the Ministry of Agriculture. But it’s a phenomenon in Azerbaijan.

Therefore, by changing the personnel structure, the former informal structures of economic management are destroyed, local (sectoral) groups of influence around ministers are liquidated, which may mean abandoning the previous model of direct merging of business (private interest of the upper echelon) with a part of the public sector.

It is not yet clear what they will get at the exit.

It is another matter that no large independent economic players in decisions will appear in Azerbaijan. There is no need or prerequisite for this. The question is how effectively the new functionaries will manage state funds.

- The Azerbaijani press is discussing the corruption reason for Ahmedov's arrest.

- We need to differentiate different aspects of such situations. Nakhchivans held leadership positions in various spheres of life in Azerbaijan. However, this is not an indulgence from the fact that nothing will change in the management structure. Most likely, quite serious problems arose if the audit of the central Ministry of Taxes did not lead to structural changes in the autonomy's power system. If you remember, the problem with the former head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs arose after 17 years of his service in this post - in 2017.

There are things that are permissible within the framework of the mutual influence of government agencies and business, for example, the mutually conditioned flow of funds from the shadow zone to the legal one and back from the budget, a certain level of corruption and kickbacks. They don't talk about it publicly, but these are objective realities, they exist. And there are things that are unacceptable - extortion, embezzlement of state funds, sabotaging presidential orders, the consumption of luxury, which arouses the hatred of citizens. We cannot know exactly where exactly such a red line was violated, but obviously it happened systematically. Apparently, a similar situation exists with the former Minister of Education of Nakhchivan Garibov, who was recently arrested.

In addition, such resignations are influenced by the problem of the declining efficiency of the government apparatus during the "long sitting" in office, when the drop in the effectiveness of the execution of orders from above is exacerbated by the growing risks of low-quality decisions in the field of new projects: this applies to both joint actions with business and in relation to their own local initiatives.

- Can this process of cleansing the Nakhchivan elite affect the leadership of the autonomy?

- It's hard to say yet. Perhaps not right away. Vasif Talibov, at one time, was the youngest regional leader in the CIS - he was elected head of the Milli Mejlis of the autonomy at the age of 33. During his reign, there were many really necessary actions in the development of local education, the development of historical memory. We managed to establish long-distance foreign and regional ties with neighbors, preserve the transport network. Now he is again appointed to the political council of the New Azerbaijan Party. Therefore, it is too early to say that he is on the eve of his retirement. Another thing is that it will make you think about his future, make some decisions.

- There is a steady talk that the Turkish partners of Baku do not like the figure of Talibov. Could there be any meaning behind this?

- On the one hand, autonomy is indeed becoming an object of closer scrutiny. On the eve of investments in the development of the railway transport network, the expansion of the throughput of roads, the intensity of economic activity will increase, and officials of the autonomy government will become participants in multilateral negotiations both within the framework of the working group of the vice-premiers of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia, and on issues of interaction between Baku and Ankara in the region. ... Probably, it makes sense to revise the personal composition of the local government to match the increased intensity and complexity of decisions. Perhaps it makes sense to reconsider the conditions of public-private partnership that has developed in recent years. But at the same time, it is hardly necessary to succumb to pressure from the outside - again, if we assume that it is there. I believe Ilham Aliyev will find an optimal solution here.