Pavel Felgenhauer on Iskander, Peacekeepers, Future of Karabakh

Baku/01.03.21/Turan: What is happening in Armenia is a military coup, but it has not ended yet. It will either end with the resignation of the prime minister and a change of power in the country, or the prime minister will win, then it will already be an attempted coup. Well-known Russian military observer Pavel Felgenhauer said this in an interview to the Armenian service of Radio Liberty.

He expressed the opinion that Moscow could not be unaware of the impending ultimatum of the military, but did not put it off.

“I doubt that Moscow did not know that such a thing was being prepared. And this was obviously prepared in advance. This is not improvisation. I believe that there is a very high probability that Moscow knew about this, since the Armenian military communicates quite closely with the Russian military and it is quite possible that some of them seem to work for Moscow to some extent too. And by the way Moscow reacts. That is, it is obvious that in Moscow no one will cry a lot if the military in this case can throw off Prime Minister Pashinyan, whom Moscow has never particularly loved, who has never been trusted, and is considered to be Soros's henchman.

As for the US reaction, Washington will not take any serious steps either. “Armenia is not of serious strategic interest for the United States, while Azerbaijan is much more. And even more so Turkey,” the analyst said.

When asked whether the Russian Iskander could not explode, Felgenhauer replied that it was possible. But it is not clear what Pashinyan's words "exploded by 10%" meant. In addition, it is not clear whether these missiles were used at all or not.

In the 44-day war, Armenia used operational ballistic missiles Scud-B and Tochka-U. In 2016, Armenia bought Iskander missiles from Russia.

“How effective they could be. I don’t know if they were used or not, but I’m sure that even if they were used, most likely they were not effective enough. This is not a miracle weapon. It has its advantages and disadvantages. It is not clear to what extent Armenia, in principle, could use it effectively. Because they need special data for high-precision shooting,” said Felgenhauer. He expressed doubt that Armenia had the technical ability to provide all precise guidance.

Russia used similar missiles in the Chechen war, but they also did not differ in accuracy. In the five-day war with Georgia, there were more than 60 launches of operational ballistic missiles at Georgia. In some cases the effect was high and in other cases there was no effect.

 “So, in a sense, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told the truth that the effect of ballistic missiles was weak,” the expert noted.

At the same time, Azerbaijan also used ballistic missiles and was very effective, much more effective than Armenia. They used Israeli Lora missiles, which have approximately the same range as the Iskander and very high accuracy, higher than that of the Iskander. Israeli missiles have GPS guidance. It is much more effective, and it is possible to direct the missile very accurately, much easier than on Iskander. In addition, the Azerbaijanis had Israeli, Turkish drones, which gave out the GPS coordinates of the necessary targets.

When asked about the role of the Russian peacekeepers, Felgenhauer said that they play a balancing role. For Moscow, Azerbaijan may be more important than Armenia for a number of reasons, he said.

As for Karabakh, which remained under Armenian control, it is impossible to keep it from a military point of view. Russian peacekeepers will not fight for Karabakh. Azerbaijan is not interested now in speeding up the disarmament of the Karabakh army. Although it is obvious that in the future Baku will do it. “Obviously, there will be, because the remnant of Karabakh surrounded on all sides cannot be held by military force,” he noted.

The analyst believes that Moscow is forced to reckon with Turkey and divide spheres of influence with it. Now the situation of Armenians in Karabakh is deplorable and, probably, in general, largely unpromising. “They are offered to obtain Azerbaijani citizenship, probably, they will be given, by the way, not to everyone, but only to those who can prove that he was born there during the Soviet regime or is a descendant of someone who was born there during the Soviet regime. The rest will be asked to leave, and they will still be disarmed. There will be no armed forces of its own,” Felgenhauer said.

Azerbaijan also does not want to quarrel with Russia, and if the Russian peacekeepers are not ready to fight there, then Azerbaijan all the more does not want to start a war with Russia. He also does not need this at all. So, they will somehow conduct some rather complicated trade in this place. It is now important for Azerbaijan to begin the process of reintegration of the territories that it has already received, the analyst said.

When asked about the military rapprochement between Armenia and Russia, he said that such cooperation is unlikely to improve Armenia's readiness for war. Armenia needs rapprochement with Russia in order not to finally lose the rest of Karabakh. At the same time, the weapons of Turkey and Israel turned out to be more effective than the weapons of Russia, the expert admitted. -02D-