Rauf Mirkadyrov: Resumption of Active Hostilities Possible

The well-known political columnist Rauf Mirkadyrov considers possible resumption of active hostilities in Karabakh, with the active involvement of Russia.

"I have the impression that Moscow was ready for the latest escalation (April 2-5).

The worsening situation occurred at night and early in the morning, the spokesman for the Russian President expressed his attitude, which really was of the head of state. During the next few hours the Foreign Minister held telephone conversations with Baku and Yerevan. The Defense Ministers intervened, as well as the CSTO Secretary General.

The impression was that Moscow knew in what direction everything would develop and pre-prepared response statements. That is, originally planned steps were taken," he said in an interview with the Voice of America.

On the other hand, it is necessary to see whose interests are consistent with the development of the conflict in this form.

"The ceasefire was made possible through the mediation of Russia. Moscow tried to recall the existence of a plan that is different from the proposals of the OSCE Minsk Group, and tried to run it. Of course, this plan is different, taking into account the interests of Russia.

At the same time, the sluggishness of the US diplomacy on these days was surprising.

In the midst of the events the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia were in Washington. The Americans could act quickly and organize a meeting Aliyev-Sargsyan in Washington to restore the ceasefire and reach it in the US, but not in Moscow at the level of chiefs of general staffs.

One gets the impression that the US deliberately ceded the initiative to Russia," continued Mirkadyrov.

Can we assume that after the events of April 2-5, the settlement of the conflict became closer?

On this Mirkadyrov expressed skepticism about a peace agreement. He pointed out that the statements of the mediators still mean the responsibility rests with the parties to the conflict, which have to agree themselves. These statements are at least not sincere. If Moscow and Washington really speak with one voice, they will really push or even apply pressure forcing the parties to peace.

The balance in the region is clear. Armenia is completely dependent on Russia, especially on security issues. Russia has also enough political and economic influence on Azerbaijan.

"The main problem is that the great powers still have not agreed on the division of spheres of interest in the region. This is the very thing preventing the conclusion of peace," said Mirkadyrov.

Is the resumption of hostilities in the region possible and when might this happen? In answering this question Mirkadyrov said the resumption of active hostilities on the front is possible. The problem is that there is no military or political balance in the region. The West is not present here, while Russia is.

Therefore, the approval of the plans of the West and Turkey to strike the interests of Moscow and transfer the conflict into a hot phase does not look serious.

Only Russia has enough power here to create a confrontation and try to manage it to its own advantage, if it wants to," said Mirkadyrov.   -06D--