What does Obama"s reelection mean for South Caucasus?

TURAN’s interview with US analysts

Foreign policy wasn't the issue that got the President Obama reelected last Tuesday, but with upheaval in the Middle East dictatorships, a war to end in Afghanistan and strained relations with post-Soviet Russia and others, it's sure to play an outsized role in shaping his legacy as he enters a hard-won second term.

What does Obama's reelection mean for the US foreign policy? Will the election results change the US-Azerbaijani relationship and how? TURAN’s Washington DC correspondent has addressed these questions to several US analysts.

“No, I don't think so… Foreign policy will be a case of reaction rather than action” said Dale Herspring, a veteran American diplomat, who spent more than 23 years in the Foreign Service and 33 years in the US Navy.

“With the country's severe economic problems, I don't think Obama is even aware what US policy toward Baku is”, Herspring, currently a University Distinguished Professor in the Political Science Department at Kansas State University, told TURAN.

“I would advise the administration in Baku to initiate policy options now. To quote an old American saying, "The early bird gets the worm".

For Herspring, the latest problems with Israel and Syria “are an example of how uncertain the future is: Obama, he can do nothing about that situation, but if it gets out of hand, we could all find ourselves in a war”.

Speaking about the Caucasus conflicts, he said, “Unless the situation gets much worse, these are not a matter of primary concern for the US”

In the meantime, Washington is “well aware of Putin's effort to gain more central control”

“You will hear the normal hortatory statements about concern, but not anything of substance”, he emphasized.

In terms of democracy, the analyst believes that “the US will stay in the background making hortatory statements, but little beyond that”.

Another analyst, Michael Bishku, History Professor at Augusta State University, who specializes in South Caucasus issues, also believes that the South Caucasus is “a lower priority” in Obama’s foreign policy agenda, “but one that will be given much attention due in part to its proximity to Russia and the importance of those relations”.

“The region's geographic proximity to Iran also factors in to US policy”, Bishku told TURAN’s

Washington DC correspondent.

As for the US-Azerbaijan relations, “it will probably not change as whoever succeeds Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State will likely continue the same policies, i.e. those of President Barack Obama”.

In the meantime, he added US relations with Turkey are close and, despite Obama's discomfort with Netanyahu, the same could be said of those with Israel. Both of those Middle Eastern countries have good relations with Azerbaijan and that has to have an effect on US-Azerbaijani relations”.

“With civil war raging in Syria, the US is more comfortable with relative stability in the rest of the Middle East and in neighboring regions such as the South Caucasus. Furthermore, with the threat of Iran developing nuclear weapons, Azerbaijan is a very important country with which the US can cooperate”, he said.

One of Obama’s first and most crucial tasks will be naming a successor to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who’s vowed to step down after this year... What should we expect from the Secretary-replacement?

“My preference would be Colin Powell, but I don't think he is interested”, said Herspring. “Beyond that, I have no idea who will step up and take on a very frustrating and difficult job”.

Bishku in his turn believes that Obama will appoint “someone with great experience in foreign affairs, but also someone who will be confirmed easily by the US Senate”. “Whether that person will travel quite as much as Clinton remains to be seen”.

When speaking about Washington's regional priorities, many see that the Obama administration has been downgrading the status of human rights issues, especially with countries like Azerbaijan. Where is the place of democracy and human rights in Washington's regional priorities?

Answering this question, Bishku said, “It is indeed unfortunate that human rights concerns, unless violations are so outrageous, usually are not given as much weight in foreign relations as are other political issues or economic matters”.

“If there is a strong and successful popular campaign against Aliyev in Azerbaijan then the US and the West will most likely react in support. Otherwise, human rights concerns will be voiced in private”.

As for the regional conflicts, Bishku said, the US will probably not act alone in those matters.

“Other NATO countries and Russia would be involved. If Armenia and Azerbaijan become more aggressive in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the West and Russia will become more proactive”.

Regarding Turkish-Armenia's rapprochement, he added “it is obviously dependent in part upon attitudes in the Armenian Diaspora and Azerbaijan”.

For Bishku, while Western countries seem to accept the idea that the South Caucasus is in "Russia's backyard," they will react strongly, short of war obviously, to Russian "bullying" or "intrigue."

“The US and Russia have to cooperate on many issues around the world, including matters that affect Europe directly, but there will always be a degree of suspicion”, he said At the same time, none of the South Caucasus states will become NATO members anytime soon -- even though Georgia has sought to join in the past -- nor will they become Russian 'satellites."

Alakbar Raufoglu

Washington, DC

11.12.2012