In Washington, Peace Agreement Reshapes the South Caucasus and U.S. Influence

On Friday, in the richly decorated halls of the White House, surrounded by American flags and the strict formalities of a diplomatic ceremony, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a joint declaration they hope will heal one of the deepest wounds of the post-Soviet world.

The declaration, formalized in the presence of President Donald Trump, calls for advancing toward the signing and ratification of an already agreed peace treaty.

It sets the framework for a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, commits both to respecting each other’s territorial integrity, and includes a joint decision to close the long-defunct OSCE Minsk process. It also envisions the opening of transport links, including the so-called Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) — a U.S.-brokered project running through Armenia’s Syunik province to connect mainland Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave.

While Washington insists the TRIPP project is purely commercial, it strengthens America’s role in a region long influenced by Russia, Turkey and Iran. “My desire is to ensure peace and prosperity in the region,” Trump said, standing between Aliyev and Pashinyan. “If problems arise, they’ll call me, and I’ll fix them.”

A Calculated Break with the Past

The White House ceremony was both substantive and symbolic. For the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the two South Caucasus rivals publicly agreed — in the presence of a global power — to a deal rejecting revenge, renouncing territorial claims, and promising “a future free from the shackles of past conflicts.”

Pashinyan, whose political survival has often depended on weathering the domestic fallout of concessions to Azerbaijan, called the deal a turning point: “We leave the past behind and look forward. This stage would have been impossible without the personal involvement of President Trump.”

Aliyev, whose government is increasingly seeking U.S. investment and security cooperation, called the summit “historic” and the beginning of a “strategic partnership” with Washington. The countries also signed a memorandum to establish a Strategic Working Group to draft a Bilateral Partnership Charter — a move that could deepen U.S.-Azerbaijan ties in energy, trade and security.

Kremlin Chimes Remain Silent

The Kremlin has yet to issue an official response, but concern is evident. Weeks before the signing, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned against what she described as Western attempts to “pull” Armenian-Azerbaijani normalization “onto their own tracks,” moving away from the “regional self-sufficiency” model long promoted by Russia, Iran and Turkey.

Zakharova stressed Russia’s role in mediating the 2020 ceasefire and initiating talks on transport corridors and border delimitation. She accused Washington of offering “nothing new” on transit, noting that in 2023, a nearly complete package for reopening regional routes, developed under Russian guidance, was derailed by “Western interference” and Armenia’s hesitancy.

For Moscow, the U.S.-brokered TRIPP route threatens not only to bypass Russian-controlled transit systems but also to challenge the customs regime of the Eurasian Economic Union, of which Armenia is a member.

Ankara and Brussels Welcome the Move

Turkey, Azerbaijan’s closest ally, immediately endorsed the outcome of the Washington summit. Ankara’s statement praised the “political will” demonstrated in the U.S. capital and pledged continued support for the peace process.

The European Union, which has hosted several rounds of Aliyev-Pashinyan talks in Brussels, also welcomed the signing. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa called the declaration “an important event” paving the way for “sustainable peace.” They pledged EU investment in regional connectivity — a signal that Brussels views the U.S.-led initiative not as a competitor but as a complementary track.

High Stakes for the Region

If ratified and implemented, the framework peace agreement would remove one of the most enduring sources of instability in the post-Soviet space. For Azerbaijan, it means the formal end of hostilities and a secure land link to Nakhchivan. For Armenia, it opens doors to trade opportunities and potential economic cooperation with the U.S., but also carries domestic political risks that critics may frame as capitulation.

For the United States, TRIPP offers not only economic dividends but also a foothold in the connective infrastructure of the South Caucasus, potentially countering both China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Russia-controlled transit networks.

Yet the fragility of past peace efforts still looms. The now-formally concluded Minsk process was itself born of 1990s optimism but later fizzled out. Skeptics warn that entrenched mistrust, unstable domestic politics, and competing great-power interests could still derail this agreement.

For now, the images from the White House — three leaders smiling against a backdrop of American flags — will dominate the narrative. Whether they mark the start of a lasting peace or just another fleeting glimmer of hope for the South Caucasus will depend on what happens after the ink dries.