What will be and what can be in 2019

On January 1, an event of universal significance took place - the "New Horizons" spacecraft converged with the "2014 MU" trans-Neptunian asteroid.

Now let"s first speak about the "predetermined" events of world significance. For a long time, politically and economically, the year begins with the World Economic Forum in Davos, which summarizes and determines the strategies for future development. It will take place very soon (22-25.01), then giving way to the significance of the Munich Conference on Security Policy (55th in a row, 15-17.02), at which V. Putin"s speech in 2007 launched the new "cold war" now against the unipolar world.

The Second International Forum "One Belt, One Way" (26-27.04) will continue to build a new world center for economic (and political) development, hoping to connect the countries of the Asia-Pacific Region to it. Thus, the formation of a multipolar world and the growing challenges of the global hegemony of the United States will continue.

Brexit, , the final withdrawal of Great Britain from the EU, is scheduled to end on March 29, which is a turning point in the development of the most ambitious political and economic project of the 20th century. This event will have an impact on the upcoming (23-26.05) elections to the European Parliament, which will take place in conditions of a noticeable strengthening of the positions of right-wing populists, the success of the ultra-right on the wave of confrontation of large-scale migration to Europe, which strongly raises the issue of mass exit from the EU. In short, this year, the year of the 25th anniversary of the creation of the EU (the Maastricht Treaty came into force on November 1, 1993), will determine the future architecture of European integration. In the EU following the results of the elections, the entire leadership of the European Union should be replaced, including the head of the European Commission, the head of the EU diplomatic department and the president of the European Council.

The summer, which, according to weather forecasters, promises to be very hot, is preparing two events: (28-29.06) - the G20 summit in Japan, where it is also planned to hold an informal BRICS summit, and (25-27.08) - the G ("seven") summit in France against last year"s lack of a traditional final declaration. In general, the world this year may witness the strengthening of the US confrontation with both the leading EU countries and countries such as Japan and China. However, an alternative variant of conflict prevention is not excluded, as it happened in relations between the USA and China at the end of last year.

Almost every year, presidential and parliamentary elections are held, which somehow attract the attention of analysts. In the 2019, we can consider such parliamentary elections in Moldova (February 24), Turkey (March 3), Israel (April 9), in Ukraine (October 27), Greece (10) and presidential: in Ukraine (March 31). In all these countries, election results can drastically change or correct domestic and foreign policy, but even against this background, Ukraine is decisively different, the crucial vital issue of foreign policy orientation and the restoration of territorial integrity. In the meantime, the current president P. Poroshenko set the goal to prepare Ukraine for membership in the EU and NATO for five years.

Some astrologers predict that 2019 will be unsuccessful for Ukraine, Georgia, Iran, Pakistan and Turkey.

The intrigue of the year will be the declared withdrawal of the US troops from Syria, seemingly resigned to the growing role of Russia (Turkey and Iran) in the Middle East. Since Western countries, in particular France, do not agree with this decision, which is evidence of Washington"s softening of its position towards Iran, we can expect it to be canceled due to real or contrived circumstances. In general, the sanctions against Iran and Russia will remain the brand throughout the year, promising, according to analysts of RT, "increased geopolitical turbulence that could lead to new conflicts." This will be facilitated by the final withdrawal of the United States from the Treaty on the Elimination of Medium and Short Range Missiles and a possible decision not to extend Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty-III, which will lead to a new arms race in the world.

Significant changes can take place. The inhabitants of Japan will begin the countdown of the new era - Emperor Akihito of Japan will abdicate the throne (April 30) and the next day his eldest son, Crown Prince Naruhito, will come to power. In Brazil, the new president, J. Bolsonar (whom journalists call "Tropic Trump"), inspired by the example of his northern colleague, is trying to duplicate his policies in his country, a member, by the way, BRICS. In particular, the new Brazilian president intends to strengthen ties not only with the United States, but also with Israel, preparing to transfer the Brazilian embassy in this country to Jerusalem.

An equally important event was the celebration in Kiev (January 7) of the Nativity in Hagia Sophia in autocephaly (a document called Tomos, signed two days before by the Patriarch of Constantinople Bartholomew, arrived from Istanbul to Kiev) of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine. "The split of the Orthodox world, which for a long time was under the spiritual influence of the Moscow Patriarchate, has now been ratified," stated P. Avril, a journalist with the French edition of Le Figaro.

2019 is a very important year for the states of the South Caucasus, which are undergoing a shift of political elites and a transformation of the political system.

For Armenia, the political routine of forming a cabinet begins, the solution of the difficult problems of the economy and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict begins against the background of Russia's cautious attention, EU restraint and the waiting policy of the diaspora. Under these conditions, the promulgation of the program of political and economic priorities of the new government is of utmost importance. In 2019, Armenia will chair the EAEU, and this will be a good help for shaping the image of the renewed country. Decisions on criminal cases initiated against ex-President R. Kocharyan and General Y. Khachaturov, and, possibly, ex-Defense Minister S. Ohanyan, on the charges of the "first March" case will play an undoubted role in the internal political situation and foreign policy relations.

For Georgia, the whole year should be a preparation for the main political event - elections to the country's parliament to be held in 2020. The shaken monopolistic political influence of the "Georgian Dream" during the last presidential election can now be restored only through visible economic success in the shortest possible time, as stated by B. Ivanishvili, who returned to big politics. And in this matter one cannot limit oneself to 500 million euros allegedly spent by the Georgian oligarch for S. Zourabishvili"s election victory. According to a 2017 United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) study, the number of poor in Georgia for 2015-2017 has doubled. Today, every fifth resident of Georgia is poor. And this seems to be the main reason for the sharp decline in the political influence of the Georgian Dream. Regardless of political realities, Georgia will continue its journey "to the West", striving to become a full member of the EU and NATO. And in this matter much will depend on the success of the development of relations between Tbilisi and Washington.

In Azerbaijan, 2019 will be the time to test the launched large-scale reforms that may face many risks. Their success or failure will be the prologue to future political change. According to statistics, positive demographic indicators have emerged for the success of reforms in Azerbaijan: 71% of the population consists of people aged 15-64, and this year the number of employed should reach 5 million people.

Among the main events of 2019, declared the Year of Nasimi: Azerbaijan"s chairmanship in the Non-Aligned Movement from 2019 to 2022, a meeting in OPEC + format aimed at stabilizing the oil market, launching the first high-speed passenger train on the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway.

As always, significant sporting events will be held: the World Cup in trampoline (16-17.02), the World Cup in Artistic Gymnastics (March 14 - 17), the World Cup (April 26-28) and the European Rhythmic Gymnastics Championship (May 17 - 19). European League Final of the season 2018/19 (29.05), European Youth Olympic Festival (20-28.07), Rhythmic Gymnastics World Championship (16-22.09) and, of course, which has become a traditional rally.

But it seems that not these sporting events can become the main events of the year - decisive for the future geopolitical orientation of Azerbaijan, relations with Russia, which began to shift in the policy of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, with the EU, on the threshold of signing a comprehensive agreement with Baku, with the United States urging Azerbaijan to join the sanctions against Iran ...

2019 is the year of building new relations with Georgia and, especially, with Armenia, the protracted conflict with which is the main obstacle to the integration of the South Caucasus, opening up new political and economic horizons for all three states.