Azerbaijan Takes Steps to Limit Ties with Russia Over Downed Passenger Plane

Azerbaijan is deliberately scaling back its relations with Russia, using the crash of AZAL’s passenger plane over Grozny on December 25, 2024, as a catalyst to distance itself from Moscow. In a clear signal of deteriorating relations, Baku has officially notified the Russian government of its decision to terminate the operations of “Rossotrudnichestvo,” Russia’s cultural and humanitarian agency, within Azerbaijan.

According to sources cited by Report, the Azerbaijani leadership is reinforcing its commitment to protecting national interests and demonstrating an unwillingness to tolerate external interference, regardless of its origin. This strategic stance follows a similar decision made years ago to limit USAID’s presence in the country—an action taken even before the administration of then-U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to dissolve the agency.

Growing Tensions Over the AZAL Tragedy

The Azerbaijani government remains dissatisfied with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response to the December 25 tragedy. Although Putin issued an apology, subsequent statements by Russian authorities have failed to meet Baku’s demands for accountability. Azerbaijani investigators have gathered increasing evidence, including fragments of a Soviet-era “Pantsir” air defense missile found among the wreckage of the downed aircraft, supporting claims of Russian involvement in the disaster.

Azerbaijani officials are now preparing a case for an international legal proceeding, seeking to hold Moscow accountable for the destruction of the aircraft and the deaths of 38 passengers near Aktau Airport in Kazakhstan. The official stance remains firm: Russia must acknowledge its role, compensate the victims, and prosecute those responsible. Failure to comply, Azerbaijani officials warn, will lead to further diplomatic escalation.

“Dialogue remains an option, but Moscow must take responsibility,” stated a declaration published by the pro-government APA news agency. “If Russia refuses, Baku is ready for further measures.”

Russia’s Muted Response and International Precedent

The Russian government has largely avoided revisiting the AZAL plane crash, fueling speculation that the Kremlin is unwilling to meet Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s demands for an official apology and compensation. An investigative report from Kazakhstan’s commission confirmed that an external force impacted the aircraft while it was in Russian airspace. However, Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency issued a statement that contained no direct acknowledgment of Russian culpability.

The unfolding crisis echoes previous legal battles over downed civilian airliners, including the case of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, which was shot down over Ukraine in 2014. In a landmark ruling in November 2022, a Dutch court determined that a Russian-made Buk missile, launched from separatist-controlled Ukrainian territory, had destroyed the aircraft, killing 298 people. The court found that pro-Russian military proxies were under Moscow’s direct control and sentenced key figures to life imprisonment in absentia while awarding €16 million in compensation to victims' families.

Escalation of Bilateral Tensions and Potential Consequences

Azerbaijan’s efforts to internationalize the dispute threaten to bring the case before the International Court of Justice in The Hague, setting the stage for a high-profile legal battle that could force Russia to acknowledge responsibility. With diplomatic channels narrowing, the key question remains: how will Moscow respond?

For the Kremlin, the stakes are high. A prolonged legal dispute could further strain ties between Baku and Moscow, potentially disrupting economic and defense cooperation. As Azerbaijan continues to assert its sovereignty and resist foreign influence, the growing rift with Russia signals a shift in the balance of power in the South Caucasus—one that Moscow may struggle to control.

For now, Azerbaijan remains resolute in its demands. If Moscow does not intervene, the fallout from the December 25 crash could mark a significant turning point in Russian-Azerbaijani relations, setting a precedent for how smaller post-Soviet nations push back against Kremlin influence.