Moscow isbecoming cautious with Erdogan ...

After killing several Turkish soldiers in Idlib in one week, controlled by radical believers, President Erdogan showed determination and the counter-operation of the Turkish army changed the balance in the region in favor of Turkey.

When, on February 5, President Erdogan in a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin said over the phone that he “gives Bashar Assad time until the end of the month to withdraw his troops from the Idlib region,” this was, at the same time, an ultimatum to Russia or to take on fly Assad was  easier? Of course, to do this is as easy as picking up on the Azerbaijani opposition represented in the ranks of the National Council. Mr. Erdogan also knows this, besides, Washington’s Special Representative for Syria, who arrived in Ankara on February 12, the former US Ambassador to Turkey, James Jeffrey, also stressed that Damascus could not stand on the battlefield and week without Russia.

Well, amid this ferocity of Erdogan, does Moscow have any concerns? Well, if Erdogan continues to rage, what “centers” will collapse, and if this happens, will it be possible to create new ones, and if not, will Ankara turn away from Moscow and again, but get closer to Washington and NATO?

Further,  in order to discuss Syrian and especially Idlib issues on Saturday February 8, a delegation from Russia, consisting of diplomats, military and intelligence officers, began in Ankara a dialogue with their Turkish colleagues.

According to a Reuters source in diplomatic circles, the Russian delegation left Turkey, and, apparently, the parties could not reach an agreement on how to stop the fighting in Idlib, which killed the Turkish military, the agency suggests. (Details: https://eadaily.com/en/news/2020/02/11/rossiyskaya-delegaciya-pokinula-ankaru-konsultacii-ne-dali-rezultata)

Although Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that despite the absence of an agreement, the dialogue will continue, and that Erdogan and Putin can meet again, Moscow is not very optimistic about the fate of this issue.

The main problem is that the Turkish troops came into direct conflict with the Syrian army in the region and the Astana Process, more or less effective from January 2017, is becoming a thing of the past. In this case, negotiations between Turkey and Russia can be very problematic.

Sounding in Ankara at the highest level of appeals to NATO for help and calls for a revitalization of relations with the United States reinforces Moscow's concern in this context. A strange situation arose: Turkey, proceeding before the end of January in resolving the Idlib problem from the thesis of "new waves of refugees" and counting on it, after losing 13 of its military men in the region on February 3 and 10, seized the initiative and resorted to a "policy of reprisal" in the counterattack.

So be sure: even if Erdogan meets with Putin, this time his position will be stronger. If the Turkish president does not give up thoughts of large-scale military operations before meeting in Moscow or Sochi, who can convince him? No one!

Then the mechanisms that until now have been very difficult to actuate will outlive themselves. And since the Astana process is the main one, if it is impossible to prevent Erdogan’s Idlib campaign, this process will be completed and Iran will remain outside of it.

The situation with Iran is a separate issue, now it is very important to clarify whether Ankara and Moscow will try to find a new format for negotiations on the Syrian issue? In fact, will it be possible, as Mr. Erdogan said (we wrote about this 4-5 months ago), “The Astana process” will be replaced by another if it is exhausted ”?

Russian military experts, along with drawing attention to the Syrian army taking control of the Aleppo highway after a recent decisive victory, do not rule out that in this case, Turkey may consider new options. The likelihood of such a course of events is further enhanced by the fact that on February 11, in the parliamentary group of his party, Erdogan again demonstrated the sharp position he took in this matter. In that case, what could be Erdogan’s demands if he met with Putin?

So that Russia does not intervene when the army of Damascus is “taught a lesson” or give it more guarantees for consolidation in Idlib? And he can demand both of them ...