Putin as a moderator of the Aliyev-Pashinyan dialogue

A separate issue on the agenda of the meeting, as experts believed, were the agreements on the Russian military supplies to Azerbaijan, which was spurred by the ADEX-2018 Defense Exhibition in Baku, where the Russian stand was one of the leading. In the past, Russia supplied Azerbaijan armaments for 5 billion dollars, and there are talks about next transaction on the amount close to it.

It is noteworthy that during the visit, Putin did not say a word about the aspects of military cooperation, demonstratively focusing on the civil aspect of expanding trade and economic ties. He even stressed this by arriving to the opening of the exhibition, which many expected, but to the Azerbaijani-Russian business forum, where he outlined the main priorities for cooperation. These priorities, as follows from the speech of the Russian leader, were a consecutive repetition of the Sochi agenda Putin-Aliyev, which was voiced on September 1 during the working visit of the Azerbaijani president to Russia. In Sochi, the parties predetermined the contours of cooperation between the two countries until 2024.

The agreements were partially consolidated by the Program of Cooperation between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Government of the Republic of Azerbaijan for the period until 2024 and the Action Plan for the Development of Key Areas for Russian-Azerbaijani Cooperation (5 Road Maps). They include building up trade and counter investments, creating transport routes and expanding cooperation in various fields, including cultural and tourism exchanges, as well as the oil sector.

The actual presence of Putin and Aliyev at the business forum can be considered as an act of approval and blessing of all concessions. It is necessary to note Aliyev"s high spirit both in Sochi and Baku, which allows to conclude that Moscow's current position is towards Azerbaijan and its administration is perceived as constructive and friendly.

This constructivism can be based on two factors:

1. Implementation of the above Sochi agreements.

2. Regulation of the Karabakh conflict in the system of coordinates that meet the interests of Azerbaijan.

Although Putin also said nothing about the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, it should be noted that this issue remains the most problematic for Azerbaijan. In this case, Putin's visit to Baku can be used to make the difference in the relations between the two countries, using their weighty influence in the region. It is confirmed by the fact that on September 28 in Dushanbe, at the summit of the Heads of States and Government, Aliyev and Pashinyan, exchanged staff maneuvers and mutual threats, and suddenly agreed to raise the level of security in the conflict zone. Aliyev-Pashinyan's agreement. Aliyev-Pashinyan's agreement. The fact that these were not empty assurances showed the operational establishment of a ceasefire regime on the line of contact of the opposing armies after Aliyev-Pashinyan's agreement. How long it will last, now depends on Russia, which, apparently, undertook additional efforts to resolve the conflict within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group, pushing the United States and France to the background. The current Russian mediation will also become a test for the new dynamics of the Russian-Azerbaijani relations - both depth and duration.