The situation in Armenia is swinging

The regime of Nikol Pashinyan entered a difficult stage when it becomes necessary to implement the promises given to the Armenian people; and it is not possible to fulfill the promise because Pashinyan arrested all protégés of Russia, and was forced to release them, without the retired Karabakh general who was unnecessary to Moscow, the thievish leader of the Yerkrapah public organization. Corruption in Armenia has not been destroyed, as Pashinyan did not arrest any leader of the mafia groups. With Pashinyan's coming to power, the standard of living of Armenians worsened as the price of bread rose, and Georgia banned the transportation of Armenian grains by road through its territory.

Armenia's foreign policy is very bad: the EU and the US have not given the country so much financial assistance as before. Relations with Russia have not improved, but rather worsened, as can be seen from the shooting that started the 102nd Russian base in Gyumri and the demonstrative support of Putin by former President R.Kocharyan arranged in the Armenian village, and Pashinyan did not dare to arrest him. The negative attitude of Putin to the new Armenian leadership is so open that it was noticed by the correspondent of the Russian newspaper Kommersant, who accused Pashinyan of lying when he spoke in Moscow about the excellent Russian-Armenian relations.

The political scientist Ilgar Velizade summarized the events in Armenia as follows: the new authorities use the courts, the entire repressive apparatus with the aim of realizing their interests. Pashinyan's predecessors acted in the same way. Former authorities, putting him in his time in prison, acted in the same way, having in their hands tools in the form of courts and law enforcement agencies. And today Pashinyan, in spite of promises and assurances, does the same thing, uses the same tool. That is, power has been changed in Armenia, but methods have not changed.

On September 11, a scandalous recording of a telephone conversation between the head of the National Security Service of Armenia, Arthur Vanetsyan, and the head of the Special Investigation Service of Armenia, Sasun Khachatryan, was spread in the Armenian press. It is characteristic that the full text of this conversation was posted on the website of the Yerevan branch of the Russian news agency Novosti. The interlocutors express their reluctance to comply with Pashinyan's orders to arrest his opponents in law enforcement bodies, showing more respect for Sargsyan and Kocharyan than a willingness to serve the new prime minister. According to experts, it was necessary for Moscow to bring the telephone conversation to the attention of the Armenian public for the swaying of Pashinyan's power. If so, Moscow achieved its goal, as the prime minister lost his temper and, speaking at the rally, ordered the arrest of all his opponents in power, "put their guards on the asphalt for two hours." Two hours have elapsed on September 11, Pashinyan's order has not been fulfilled.

Studying political processes in Armenia, Elkhan Aleskerov draws readers' attention to his page in the FB on the fact that one of the "heroes" of the telephone scandal during the conversation was in Russia. Is the new head of the secret service of Armenia so ignorant that he did not know the elementary basics about the probability of wiretapping his phone in Moscow? In this case, they could talk a good deal every other day in Yerevan. Hence the version of Aleskerov: one of the interlocutors initiated the conversation specifically. Perhaps, the details of the case were urgently needed to be brought to the Russian side. It is obvious that the personnel policy is the weakest link in the Pashinyan system, and if we add that the armed members of the criminal group Sasna Tsrer created a political party, then it is not difficult to predict the subsequent events there.

It should be noted that Pashinyan released Sasna Tsrer, arrested and convicted under Sargsyan for terrorism in Yerevan, which caused the death of a policeman.

Former officer of the Ministry of National Security of Azerbaijan, Akif Hasanov, notes that the revolutionary frenzy in Armenia is passing and Pashinyan is not at all up to Karabakh at all. "We thought that the problems would begin at the end of the year, but it seems that everything will be much earlier. I do not agree that everything went smoothly at his meeting with Putin. The leakage of secret telephone conversations between the two heads of special services causes vague doubts that these are the actions of the Armenians themselves. And then there was the hysterics that Pashinyan rolled at the rally, demonstrated his real fear of the future. The tone of the Armenian media has changed, which began to criticize the "people's prime minister," Hasanov said.

The Azerbaijani expert community is watching Pashinyan's aggressively insulting rhetoric , which brought down to Azerbaijan a series of non-diplomatic statements. Politician Tofig Yagublu and military expert Uzeir Jafarov are surprised that receiving such statements of Yerevan, Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov speaks of regret over the negotiation process blocked by Pashinyan.

The fact that Pashinyan really does not intend to continue the negotiation process within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group has been noticed by many. Surprisingly, but before Pashinyan's victory official Baku regularly expressed its dissatisfaction with the Minsk group, and pro-government public figures in Baku made calls to transfer negotiations with Armenia to another format. Now, when Pashinyan has stopped imitating the negotiation process, the Foreign Ministry of Azerbaijan has blazed with the desire to resume negotiations precisely under the auspices of the hated OSCE MG.

In reality, Pashinyan does not really want to talk with Baku. It is hard to imagine, but this is so: within the command-staff exercises "Shant-2018" on September 12 in the National Assembly of Armenia a decision was made to declare war. "Taking as a basis the proposal of the Armenian government on September 12"On endorsement of the proposal to declare war", guided by the first paragraph of Article 118 of the Armenian Constitution and the fifth paragraph of Article 105 of the Constitutional Law "The Charter of the National Assembly of Armenia", the National Assembly of Armenia decides to declare war on the Republic of Azerbaijan" , reads the decision of the National Assembly of Armenia.

In order to understand the absence of Nikola's desire to tackle Karabakh, one can analyze his statements, Elkhan Aleskerov suggests:

1. "The belligerent atmosphere, which is formed due to non-constructive, aggressive activities and rhetoric of the Azerbaijani government, is the most troublesome for the negotiating process";

2. Pashinyan reaffirmed that he does not consider himself authorized to negotiate on behalf of Karabakh, because he is neither the president nor the prime minister of this country;

3. Pashinyan noted that without the participation of Karabakh conflict resolution is impossible;

4. Pashinyan ruled out compromises from Armenia in the negotiations on Karabakh.

Apparently, N.Pashinyan lost control over Karabakh, where B.Sahakian ruled, the protégés of S.Sargsyan and R.Kocharyan. With his contradictory and far-fetched statements, Pashinyan loses the legitimate possibility of preserving his power, which could make sense in the case of negotiations with Azerbaijan on Karabakh. The statehood in Armenia is dying and the last nail on the coffin lid under this name, it seems, will have to be scored by Azerbaijan.

President Aliyev said the unacceptability of the thesis that "Azerbaijan should negotiate with the" Nagorno Karabakh Republic. "Baku categorically rejects statements that the occupied Azerbaijani territories are allegedly part of the" Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. "It seems that Pashinyan is trying to break the negotiation process and all responsibility for the consequences lies on him," Alasgarov summed up.