Upcoming snap parliamentary elections will be the main test for Pashinyan

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has announced that he will resign by 15 October in order to pave the way for snap parliamentary elections around 10 December. This comes after another political confrontation in the country in which Mr Pashinyan again emerged victorious thanks to strong popular support.

Although Mr Pashinyan is prime minister, he does not have a controlling majority in parliament. The former ruling Republican Party is in the majority. Alongside the nationalist Dashnaks they tried to block Mr Pashinyan"s decision to hold snap elections in December by proposing a joint amendment in parliament. The prime minister called the move "a counter revolution in the making" and urged his supporters to put pressure on the Republican Party by taking to the streets. Within hours, hundreds of thousands of people took to the central square in Yerevan and surrounded the parliament building, demanding snap elections. The public pressure forced the former ruling party and its allies to back off and they eventually agreed to early elections.

After the spring revolution, the new prime minister and his team started to conduct reforms such as fighting corruption and collecting taxes from big business entities, in which the former ruling clan was a primary target. The arrests of former key politicians and ministers seemed to scare the old elite that it was losing both economic and political influence in the country. The old elite tried to disrupt the reforms, but eventually with the backing of the people Pashinyan neutralized all of them. In his turn, the prime minister understands that without fresh elections it will be impossible to conduct all the necessary urgent political and economic reforms. A strong mandate from the citizens would strengthen his position to conduct reform. After his party"s candidate won the elections for mayor of Yerevan in September, Pashinyan became more confident that it is time to go to the ballot box nationally.

A Major Test for Democratization

When Pashinyan resigns, Armenia will enter a sensitive period, which will be decisive for democratization, transparency, good governance and legitimacy. With Russian coordination the former ruling clan might try to derail the election process. Russia"s stance will also be a key aspect of the process. It seems that the Kremlin is deeply concerned about the recent changes in Armenia. By bolstering its ties with Azerbaijan, Moscow is trying to demonstrate its determination to remain a major force in Armenia through the Mountainous Karabakh conflict. Nikol Pashinyan has shown his desire not to be fully dependent on Russia by diversifying Armenia"s foreign policy. Armenia"s ties are deepening with the European Union and especially France.

Another important issue will be ensuring the neutrality of the electoral commission, which is essential for the holding of free and fair elections. It is uncertain how Armenia will go through this period, but one thing is clear: the people have shown their desire for change by backing Pashinyan twice at critical moments against the former system. This is going to be tested a third time through the ballot box.