Will Turkey come to the right bank of the Euphrates?

On September 23 in New York, in his speech to the Turkish-American National Committee for Orientation (TASC), the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said regarding the situation in Syria: "We will continue our struggle until the terrorist threats directed against our country are not completely eliminated, until bandit groups encroaching on the future of Syria are not be eradicated. In-sha-Allah, in the near future we will continue to increase the number of security zones in Syria with coverage of the East Bank of the Euphrates."

Erdogan arrived in New York to attend the session of the UN General Assembly.

These words of the President of Turkey actualized the likelihood that Turkey, currently controlling a 250-kilometer-long territory. and a depth of about 60 km. along the Syrian-Turkish border and established there its power, after a while can go to the East Bank of the Euphrates River.

After military operations in August 2016 and in January-March 2018, codenamed "Olive Branch" and "Euphrates Shield", Turkey displaced PYD/YPG (structures of the PKK terrorist organization in Syria) located on its border. And at a time when possible next steps of Turkey in this direction aroused interest, President Erdogan made it known that he would expand the sphere of influence of his country.

From the very beginning of Ankara's military operations in Syria, military and political observers stressed that the main problem for Turkey would be the Kurdish cantons on the right bank of the Euphrates. After in 2011, Bashar Assad voluntarily left the Northeast regions of the country, giving them to the Kurds, in autumn of 2014 the terrorist organization ISIL tried to completely take possession of the region.

After the pressure of Western countries, Turkey allowed the detachments of the Peshmerga of Northern Iraq to pass through its territory to help to the canton Ein al-Arab, which is in a very difficult situation. In the subsequent period, despite the fact that Turkey presented the world ruling in the region PYD / YPG as a terrorist organization, many countries of the West led by the US did not heed these persistent allegations of Ankara. The US, having thoroughly armed PYD / YPG, which is holding the Northeast region of Syria under its control, moved their armed detachments to Rakku in order to liberate this capital of the ISIL terrorist organization in Syria, and Russia closed its eyes to the opening of the PYD / YPG office in Moscow.

Although by two military operations against PYD / YPG in the North-West of Syria, Turkey drove this terrorist organization out of the region, experts who knew it very well always asked the question: "Why does Turkey turn a blind eye to the processes occurring on the East bank of the Euphrates River , and treated them in cold blood? ".

At present, the end of the war in Syria is connected with the purification of Idlib from radical Islamist terrorist groups. At a meeting with V.Putin on September 17 in Sochi, Erdogan gave the floor to free the region from militants without resorting to military operations. Contrary to the allegations of military and political observers that Turkey will be difficult to cope with this, Erdogan stated in New York on September 23 that he would "create a safe zone on the East Bank of the Euphrates," but can this be considered an indicator of what he will successfully resolve the Idlib problem?

Observers point out that if, having fulfilled the word given in relation to Idlib, Turkey will go to the Eastern shore of the Euphrates, it may face PYD / YPG, which the US openly supports. In this case, it is possible that Russia can support Turkey.

And as the main condition for success in the direction of Turkey on the Eastern coast of the Euphrates, is called the need to establish Ankara's dialogue with Damascus. At the same time as an argument refer to the cooperation of Tehran, Baghdad and Ankara, united in the fight against the declaration of independence of Northern Iraq by holding a referendum in September 2017. President R. Erdogan also looks very interested in expanding Turkey's sphere of influence on the lands of Syria. Therefore, the following question arises:

What is the main reason that Erdogan does his best to avoid dialogue with Assad: "Assad's dictatorship" or the desire to establish a long-term domination of Turkey on the lands of Syria? If this desire of Turkey is conditioned by desire to create a security zone along its borders, then to what extent will Syria, Iran and Russia be able to oppose it?

The speech of R. Erdogan in New York further exacerbated the importance of these issues.