Expert: Sanctions to Weaken Iran and Change Geopolitical Structure of Region

Baku / 07.11.18 / Turan: The political analyst Arastun Orujlu, head of the East-West Research Center, in an interview with the Chetin Sual (Difficult Question) program of the Turan agency, commented on the impact of US sanctions on Iran and their impact on Azerbaijan.

The situation in the Middle East, of which the South Caucasus is broadly understood, remains difficult. Here is the struggle for regional leadership between Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia. The United States seeks to support its partner, Saudi Arabia, which is considered the leader of the Arab world.

The application of sanctions means isolation, weakening of Iran. Iran"s position in the region will weaken, leading to a regrouping of forces and a new geopolitical structure, Orujlu said.

Why should Azerbaijan be ready in this case? Responding to this question, Orujlu said there are quite a large number of supporters of reforms in Iran and these are mostly young people. These people will be activated and the situation in Iran will change. Social and economic problems will also help soften the political regime. If the authorities do not do that, a confrontation will arise and not only a political one. The confrontation can begin on a national-ethnic basis.

Iran is a multinational state where national rights are not respected, including Azerbaijanis. In this situation, separatist tendencies can become inevitable. "If a critical situation arises there, then we do not have a partner who would defend Azerbaijanis in Iran. Only the Republic of Azerbaijan can do this," Orujlu said.

What will Azerbaijani-Iranian relations be in terms of sanctions? Orujlu said that during the previous sanctions Iran used the banks of Azerbaijan to launder money, and the country's economy to bring its goods to world markets.

"I believe the National Security Adviser to the US President, John Bolton, discussed these issues during his visit to Baku. Of course, there are two sides to the issue. On the one hand, it is necessary to take into account that the social, economic and socio-political upheavals inside Iran will definitely affect Azerbaijan. On the other hand, Azerbaijan, not supporting the sanctions, may anger the United States.

Elementary sanctions may be imposed on our oil. Recently, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that sanctions would be imposed against all companies cooperating with Iran. He meant Western companies. However, similar steps can also be applied against Azerbaijan. Therefore, it is important to take a balanced position.

It is necessary to strengthen control over the banking and financial system of the country so as not to encounter the above-mentioned phenomena. Otherwise, we ourselves will face sanctions," said Orujlu.

He agrees with the opinion that the sanctions will cause migration of the population from Iran. For Iranian Azerbaijanis, migration to the Republic of Azerbaijan is the most natural solution.

"And are we ready for this? Will Azerbaijan be able to prevent this? I believe it is not worth particularly countering it, as those living in South Azerbaijan are our compatriots. If they face a crisis, and see the path to salvation in Azerbaijan, we must open the doors for them. As a state, we must act like this," Orujlu said. -03C06--