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While the Turkey"s punlic opinion voiced its response 10 days ago to the fact that McKinsey & Company will be controlling the country"s economy, President Erdogan made an unexpected statement that his country would not collaborate with the American company. "They won"t serve us on ideological grounds. We are self-sufficient ". These words raised questions that may be classified as follows:
Why did Turkey apply to McKinsey & Company, not the IMF, to meet the debts or postpone them?
It was Erdogan"s son-in-law, Minister of Finance and Treasury, Berat Albayrak who declared that the control over the Turkish economy had been ceded to McKinsey & Company. It was even added that a structure had been set up to include plenipotentiary reprersentatives of 16 Ministries. As it happens that all these measures Berat Albayrak has initiated without President Erdogan"s knowledge? Did this come as a result of the last 10-day debates that made Erdogan to realize that McKinsey & Company wouldn"t resolve all the problems?
Given that the main purpose was to obtain an IMF credit , does it mean that President Erdogan realized the impossibility of accomplishing the goal through the use of McKensey and forgot about it? The fact that the Turkish public will not approve McKensey"s assistence is one thing. Another thing is a blow to prestige of President Erdogan and AKP (Erdogan"s asrdent supporters-commentasrs harshly criticized such a ciollaboration). That was an impossibility of such a step that forced Erdogan to state that "any crisis contributes to the plurality of opportunities" and channel the situation differently?
One more question: was not it easier to put cherished credits to archives of history even despite high interest rates of the Erdogan-led "Varlyg" Fund with a capital of $ 200 billion? In all probability, Erdogan realized that the best way out of crisis is to raise the economy at the expense of domestic resources?
Neither inside, nor outside the country has the handover of the economy to Berat Albayrak been welcomed by the public. Is Erdogan in position to ban his son-in-law from economy management to thus get a confidence at the international arena for credit obtaining? To grow out of the foreign debt burden, Turkey will have to mobilize all its domestic resources. Further complicating the case is that macroeconomic indices over the past few months (inflation, government expenditures, current deficit, etc.) have drifted apart government forecasts (by 3-4 times), and the process tends to grow.
On September 20, the Minister of Finance and Treasury Berat Albayrak promulgated a New Economic Program that provides the "contraction and reduction" in economy. However, all this shows no ways of achieving the macroeconomic purposes and results. It is incapability of attaining goals that is expected to intensify "inflation pressures" on the market.
It has to be kept in mind that the municipal elections are expected to take place in March 2019. Erdogan"s advent to power from a position of chairman of municipality makes it eassier for him to realize sentiments of society and the necessity of running in the elections to thus "put the fire out". It is the said context that explains a refusal from McKensey. It"d be wrong to expect that Erdogan would apply to the IMF explicitly. It may be supposed that the consolidation and upholding of the prestige can help the son-in-law out of impasse. The point is that there is not a slang in his nitty-gritty of politics but "to win victory".
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