Will Devlet Bahcheli be able to cause a collapse of power this time?

Everyone already knows that the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (NMP), Devlet Bahcheli, who unconditionally supported the leadership of the Justice and Development Party (JDP-AKP) since October 2016 and even played a major role in changing the political regime of the country, does not agree with President Erdogan on "General Amnesty".

Due to the insistence and persistence of Bahçeli, President Erdogan erected a very large wall in height and width in front of the "amnesty issue", which has not left the agenda in Turkey for 6 months. In addition, he identified the insistent demands of the NMP for clemency with the "narco-member".

Naturally, as soon as the question was mixed with "drugs," the "dose" of the dispute between both Bahceli and Erdogan and the NMP and AKP increased even more. And this, of course, also brought with it a multitude of issues, the consideration of which may prove useful to the future fate of Turkish politics:

1) Why Erdogan, responding to the NMP, in the last 2 years in all cases without exception, protecting Erdogan and JDP, mentioned only about "more than 50000 accused for drugs"; u avoid trouble. convicted of drugs" in the question on "total amnesty" which has become the case of honor and even, existence?

2) Can the phrase of the NMP leader, "wrong and untrustworthy words," said in response to Erdogan"s hint on "over 50 thousand convicts for drugs", cause a violation of the union between Bahceli and Erdogan?

In the entire history of this union, which is such by 90% between Erdogan and Bahcheli, and 10% between JDP and NMP, until now, it was not the "win-win" formula that Erdogan likes to repeat often, but the formula "let Erdogan and the AKP win." And the gaining of the NMP over these 2 years was that thank to changes to the electoral it defended its place in the Mejlis.

In the course of all the more and more heated controversy over the "Drug Challenges" it turned out that Erdogan did not offer the NMP places even at the lowest levels of state structures. Although this situation reminded the line from a gazelle of one Azerbaijani poet "Your job is to shoot arrows, and mine - to put my chest as a shield", the statement about "more than 50 thousand convicts for drugs" showed that Erdogan no longer needs Bahcheli.

Despite the NMP's statement that in the municipal elections that took place in March 2019, it would once again support the AKP, even at the cost of complete disintegration, Erdogan clearly understood that the support, which again and again promises the price of the NMP in the municipal elections, this time will not be in his favor.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who knows best all the codes of Turkish politics, needed the support of the NMP only up to the present moment; Mr. Erdogan realized it with the help of simple actions: thus, the "universal amnesty", which Bahcheli claims, will receive no more than 160 thousand people.

Therefore, the JDP chairman and President Erdogan, who figured out that the "universal amnesty", which is being implemented on the eve of the upcoming municipal elections in March, would do him more harm than good, decided to accept such a heavy blow to his partner for the last two years - NMP. If Mr. Erdogan, who, having changed the system after the elections on June 24, has complete control over everything - from parliament to court, would need the NMP, would this "experienced wolf" of the last 16 years of the Turkish politics so harshly hint to his 2-year partner? What will the NMP leader Bahcheli do in response to Erdogan"s heavy blow? However, it would be more correct to say: "What can he do?".

Since 2002, Turkish politics has twice witnessed the storm caused by the NMP leader. So, despite the absence of a decision, the coalition government, of which he was a participant, Devlet Bahcheli, without authorization, made a decision on the "early elections" on July 31, 2002 and caused the AKP to come to power in the elections of November 3, and Coalition members - DSP, MHP and ANAP parties did not go to parliament.

At the parliamentary elections on June 7, 2015, despite the fact that the AKP lost an absolute majority, the NMP did not want to join the coalition government and on November 1, at the cost of losing the high rating of the party whose leader he is, Bahcheli achieved the continuation of the AKP sole power.

Can the hint of President Erdogan about "more than 50 thousand convicts for drugs" lead to Bahcheli"s refusal from further support of the authorities? However, this does not matter anymore for Mr. Erdogan, for the JDP, and for Turkish policy. For the JDP will ignore this refusal, and the NMP will finally lose the remnants of its potential.

Bahcheli has always been indifferent to the fate of the party, the leader of which he is, and to the masses. And this is the very political phenomenon that should be investigated.