Stratfor predicts aggravation in Karabakh

In 2015, Azerbaijan will attempt to change the status quo in Karabakh, showing much more activity  on the front lines. However, it is unlikely that cross-border tensions escalate into large-scale military action, forecasts Stratfor, experts of the American Research Center.

Russia will be busy with its internal problems, and is unlikely to intervene in the conflict. However, the contradictions between Russia and the West will continue to apply to the post-Soviet countries.

Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan will undoubtedly feel the Russian economic crisis, and social unrest is quite possible.

The decline in the Russian economy will continue this year, but did not reach the level of the 1998 crisis. Russia could better stand "economic pain", but a sharp decline in revenue generated from energy, plus penalties - is too much even for President Putin," experts   of the Center believe.

Russia will avoid large-scale military action against Ukraine,  Moldova and Georgia. But the pressure does not stop.

The extension of European sanctions, which would require the approval of the 28 EU member states, Stratfor believes it unlikely.

In order to get around the issue of transit through Ukraine, and Russian, and the Europeans will look for alternative energy projects. According to analysts Stratfor, Russia will further strengthen energy relations with Turkey, and Europe will flirt with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to become a member of the Southern Corridor projects. -02D-