Maidan nerves: What do authoritarian leaders in the Caucasus learn from Ukrainian crisis?

No matter whether conditions in Azerbaijan and Armenia are similar to those in Ukraine that a repetition of Maidan here remains unclear, the authoritarian rulers in region are sufficiently nervous about the popular unrest, western analysts believe.

Speaking to TURAN's Washington correspondent Jeff Sahadeo, a director of the Institute of European, Russian and Eurasian Studies at Carleton University, commented on the latest situation around Ukrainian crisis and its possible impact on the wider region, including in particular the three countries of the South Caucasus.

Just as with the Colored Revolutions, he said, "the Maydan would make a lot of authoritarian leaders in the region nervous."

In Azerbaijan, there have been several scattered protests against the regime. It's "hard to see the opposition there becoming unified enough to mount mass demonstrations and it is highly unlikely that the police would allow it to get that far, and would quickly resort to arrests and other forceful means to disperse the demonstrators," he said.
In Armenia, of course, where you have the same pattern of a government suddenly disavowing the EU agreement and turning to Russia, the potential consequences are less clear." What is lacking there is "the national divide and demonstrators with the same organizational skills and weapons that that we saw in Maydan."
The resistance in Kiev began as a protest against Yanukovych's sudden turn away from the EU association agreement and towards signing a deal with Putin.  It then grew into a larger one against a corrupt, ineffective government and state.  "It is clear, however, that among those crowds were militant Ukrainian nationalists that played a role in turning the demonstrations towards violence, and, in the end, succeeding in repelling government forces from the Maydan," the analyst said.

Speaking about Russia's regional ambitions, he ruled out a possibility that Putin wants to recreate the USSR.  "The Baltics are lost, Azerbaijan is lost, Central Asia seems to be slipping at least as much into China's orbit: Russia lacks the power and wealth to bring them back on board," he said.

What Putin wants in region however is that Russia "to play a role in any major political occurrences in his neighborhood and have stable governments that he feels he can do business with."

In the meantime, he added, the frozen conflicts "certainly serve as bargaining chips and make it more difficult," for example, for Georgia and Moldova to consider EU/ NATO membership and helps keep Armenia dependent on Russia, and even Azerbaijan, which buys Russian arms for a conflict that had ended up playing a significant role in nationalist sentiment.  

In Ukraine, quite possibly the Russian military "saw the chance to use Crimea in the same way as Abkhazia and South Ossetia." "I think Putin and his leadership underestimated the western reaction or potential internal complications of this however," he said.

Overall the situation in Ukraine remains tense, with armed forces from Russia and Ukraine in close proximity with each other and the pro-Russian leadership in Crimea likely to seek secession. World leaders, including Putin, recognize that there is nothing to be gained by open conflict, but are fairly entrenched in their positions.

When asked why is Russia so interested in the events in Ukraine,Sahadeo said, Moscow "is acting defensively." It feels that its sphere of influence has been violated and continues to be angry at western support for the overthrow of legitimate, and in this case democratic, governments.

"Russians feel that Ukraine should lie within its sphere of influence.If it feels (as it does, justifiably or not) that Kiev has fallen to pro-Western or pro-nationalist Ukrainian forces, it will do what it feels necessary to disrupt/ destabilize in order to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO above all. Ukraine and the west will certainly argue that any move to take Ukraine out of Russia is illegal, but it is unclear what they can or will do about it."

Ukraine also is "a key piece in the plan for Putin's Eurasian Union; without it, not only does the Union lose a significant piece, but so also does Russian prestige, especially given that Ukraine is considered the birthplace of the Russian state."
The strategy to send troops into Ukraine poses significant risks to Putin however, the analyst believes. "If he supports breakaway movements in Ukraine, might that not be a point of departure for potential movements in Russia?  This is also likely to cool relations with China, as the bedrock of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is territorial integrity," he added.

When asked whether Russia's military intervention could mean a start of another Cold War, the analyst said, the rhetoric we are hearing is "certainly Cold War like", though the situation is quite different.

"Russia does not, like the USSR, have global ambitions nor does it seek to recreate the Soviet state. It does want to have its reduced neighborhood recognized, and have a role in global affairs (e.g. Syria, Iran) that befits its status as a major Eurasian power.  The strident tone on both sides does make me worry however that Russia will be isolated and considered somewhat of a pariah state, which will not serve anyone well in having a stable Eurasia."

Would there be an international backlash to Russian intervention? Answering to this question Sahadeo said, it's hard to imagine that the west will intervene with force here, right on Russia's borders:  "That would provoke all-out regional war. Also it is hard to see Ukraine's military putting up resistance.  But what happens if Crimea declares independence?  Will the Ukrainian troops leave?  What if there is an unscripted conflict that ends up in casualties?  What if Ukrainian nationalists decide to conduct guerilla warfare?"

Speaking about the West's options he emphasized it is "less concerned in this region about democratic transition, more about, as in the Russian case, having stable governments who will do business with them."  

"I hope that in this case the US and Russia (hopefully with EU as mediator) come to the negotiating table and hammer out an economic plan for Ukraine that can stabilize and discuss common cooperation with some kind of unity government," he concluded adding that for the west the largest tool is "the possibility of EU membership, beginning with Georgia and Moldova."

AlakbarRaufoglu
Washington, DC