Reset of the reset: What should the Caucasus people expect from US-Russia relationship?

- TURAN's interview with former US ambassador to Russia:

Managing the relationship with Kremlin in the region will likely be more difficult for President Obama after his reelection; as he now has to deal directly with directly Vladimir Putin - Russia's old/new president.

Some in Washington DC argue that during Dmitry Medvedev presidency, who has initiated the series of dialogs over the regional disputes, US-Russia reset has also achieved little progress on issues such as missile defense, and that the events of the Arab spring have caused further disagreements between the two countries.

In the meantime, for many analysts, the outcome of last week's US presidential election could have an impact on the relationship as Russia wasn't a foreign policy priority for either of the presidential candidates.

Yet while improvements in relations are unlikely, cooperation on some issues, Caucasus in particular, remains in the interest of both states.

TURAN's correspondent has discussed this and the possible future trajectories of the regional developments with John R. Beyrle, the former US Ambassador to Russian from 2008 to 2012, who has shown up in Washington DC this week, joining the Sarah Carey Forum focusing on US-Russia relationship, organized by the Eurasia Foundation.

Over three decades, Ambassador Beyrle logged thousands of miles before and during his tenure as ambassador to Russia. He was instrumental in the "reset" of the Russian-American relationship and the signing of the START-2 arms control treaty. He also took part in the formation of new agreements on the peaceful use of nuclear energy and reduced visa restrictions for American and Russian travelers.

Question: Some analysts in the region believe that Washington hasn't been recently paying attention to Putin's re-Sovietization efforts in the region, (I'm not a Cold War sentimentalist, but many local analysts believe that "Maskirovka" still exists, there's a whole Kremlin aspect in the region that's being overlooked, not reported..)

Do you believe in the idea of "reset of the rest" between US and Russia?

What should the Caucasus countries expect from Moscow-Washington relations in the coming years?

Answer: The reset policy was really nothing more than an effort to make the US-Russia relationship more constructive and more productive. In summer 2008 the relationship had deteriorated for a number of reasons. Both the quality and the quantity of the interactions between the two governments were at a pretty low level to my experience. Then we had the invasion of Georgia - war between Georgia and Russia - which, of course, made things much more difficult.

When president Obama came in, it really aloud both sides to turn to new page, and very quickly presidents Medvedev and Obama made clear that they wanted a fresh start in the relationship and it will be based on common interest that we had and we needed to work together on to advance.

Nuclear disarmament probably being the first and most well known, the START treaty, but also the WTO membership for Russia, which was a key priority for the president; and Russia's willingness to help America in the fight against terrorism in Afghanistan -- all of those things constituted making the relationship more constructive and more productive.

That said, it wasn't really a policy, it was an operation that took place and aloud the relationship to live up to its potential. I would say that rather than resetting the reset what we need to do is maintain the momentum that was started with the reset, in which we identify common interests and work together to advance them, resolve them in ways that we can only accomplish if we work together.

Question: Just recently, Zbignev Brzezinsky raised his concern about the possible Russia-Georgia tension in the region, in case of the Iranian war. More than four years after the occupation of Georgian lands and Russia's recognition of two separatist regions, how does the region look like today? Where do both sides stand today; what factors impede a settlement between the two?

Answer: Obviously the situation in which Georgia and Russia don't have diplomatic relations is very unusual. These are two countries, two peoples that have been linked together for centuries - culturally, religiously, historically... And I think that Russians and Georgians on both sides are interested in finding a way: make that relationship go back to where it was.

Obviously, there is a lot of history that needs to get over, but my sense is that both on Russian side and Georgian side, there are stake-holding groups that are interesting in making that relationship work.

Right now it is not working very well. I certainly don't fear the outbreak of a new hostility between Russia and Georgia. I think that both sides realized the very high price that last outbreak of hostility cost.

Question: How would you highlight differences between Russia and the Western policy - their expectations and concerns - in South Caucasus? For example, what would be the position of the US and Russia, in case of war in the Nagorno-Karabakh? Will they support oil-reach Azerbaijan, or lobby-backed Armenia?

Answer: When I was ambassador in Moscow between 2008 and 2012, I met very frequently with my Russian counterpart Georgi Karasin, who was the deputy foreign minister. We talked a lot about Nagorno-Karabakh, and in almost all cases our strategic goals there were identical: We wanted end to the violence and we wanted to negotiate the settlement, so that people of Azerbaijan and people of Armenia have clarity on that disputed region and can get on with their lives. We were very concerned about the outbreaks of some hostilities, there was firing on the border, there were deaths:

I think both the US and Russia having good channels of communication into Baku and Yerevan can help lower the tensions and get both sides to agree that only a negotiated settlement is the way to resolve this conflict.

Question: You were the first American Ambassador to Russia that was known to have your own blog, in Russian, who spoke directly to the Russian language internet audience. How would you describe the perspectives of the "online" movements in the Caucasus? There are some concerns that the governments in Russia, Azerbaijan are blocking the web-pages, arresting the bloggers. But will these repressive measures stop development of modern journalism in this particular part of the world?

Answer: On the reset policy, or on Russia's relations with the outside world in general, it makes it much easier for the average Russian to have access to a broad range of information and to understand that what he wants for his family is not much different from what for example Azeris want for their families, or what Americans want for their families, or Chinese want for their families. 

It is a window to the world that didn't exist ten years ago, and I think that by its very nature it makes it  easier for people to understand that there is a lot more that unites peoples and countries than there is what divides them.

If you focus only on what's reported in the media -- obviously that's usually bad news, -- that's what news is for better, for worse.

But through the internet, through smart phones people have access to incredible channels of information that help them broaden their understanding and it probably helps breakdown some of the mythologies and stereotypes that are unfortunately still with us from the Cold War:

Alakbar Raufoglu

Washington, DC

11/15/2012