Results of war in Ukraine will consolidate new geopolitical reality - Czech expert

Baku/22.10.22/Turan: Putin started aggression against Ukraine, although the international community did not fully believe that he would take such a step. It was also uncertain what the scale of the invasion would be if it did take place. Pavel Havlicek, an expert at the Czech Association of International Relations (AIR), said this in an interview with Turan news agency.

"I was also among those who did not allow such developments. However, after the famous meeting of the Russian Security Council on the eve of the war, it became clear that the invasion of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions will take place. I think it was in these days that Putin and his entourage were deciding how far they would go," - he said.

- Is Western aid to Ukraine sufficient against the backdrop of a large-scale war on the part of Russia?

Answering this question, Havlicek said that the question now is not only about Western military and financial aid to Ukraine, but also about its post-war reconstruction.

At the beginning of the war, Western countries blocked $350 billion worth of Russian financial and other funds. Most likely, these funds will be used for the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. Besides, it will be necessary to solve the issues of replacing Russian energy carriers - oil and gas.

The position of the Czech government in this matter is clearly on the side of Ukraine. It is evident both within the framework of the European Union and on a bilateral basis between Prague and Kiev.

   - How will the policy of the West change after Russia's aggression against Ukraine?

On the whole, after the outbreak of the war on February 24, the European Union started revising the whole security concept. In fact, the West provides military support to Ukraine as a member of NATO, although it is not. This includes direct arms supplies, including heavy weapons, as well as the training of Ukrainian soldiers, the number of which is currently about 50,000.   All this support tends to increase, Havliček stressed, adding that the outcome of the war will cement a new geopolitical reality in the world.

- The Czech presidency of the EU has given a new impetus to the settlement of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Prague meeting between Aliyev and Pashinyan, mediated by European leaders, led to sign a peacefull statement. However, France and the U.S. claimed Russia's destructive role, accusing it of hindering the peace process.

According to the Czech expert, the quadripartite meeting in Prague on October 6 showed that the European Union does not intend to "give up" this region to Russia.  "Europe does not want to have only Russian peacekeepers and only Russian military presence here," the expert said.

As for the EU Mission on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan, the move is a continuation of the presence of civilian observers already present in Georgia. "Although the term of this mission is only two months, I think the EU leadership will seek to maintain the trend of presence in the region," Havlicek stressed.

- President Aliyev has proposed forming an alliance of the three South Caucasus countries for the purpose of regional integration and security.  Can the initiative be viable this time?

  The idea itself is not new and such attempts were already made at the beginning of the 20th century. The main factors for its realization are the political will of the leaders and the population of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia. Without their will, such a union is simply impossible.

Europe also has experience of such unions, such as the Visegrad Process, Benelux and Baltic cooperation. All these models may be attractive for the South Caucasian countries as well.

The implementation of such projects is possible after the end of hostilities. This concerns not only the conflicts in the region but also the results of the war in Ukraine.  It is clear that global geopolitical changes are taking place and this will greatly influence the situation.

- What are the prospects for cooperation between the South Caucasus countries and the European Union?

According to the Czech expert, this is the choice of the countries of the region. However, it is already clear that these countries want to strengthen and deepen such relations. Georgia has already stated this openly. Azerbaijan remains an important energy partner of Europe and this partnership will only strengthen.  This trend also applies to Ukraine and Moldova, which have become candidates for EU membership.

"The authorities and the people of Azerbaijan have to decide how they see their future and with whom," concluded Pavel Havlicek. -02B-