The US policy on Azerbaijan failed

- What do the political processes in Azerbaijan look like from your distant past?

- If we consider them separately in terms of domestic and foreign policy, we can see that in Azerbaijan the same line in the domestic policy has been conducted over the past 15 years. Limitations and the neutralization of all institutions, that can and will be opponents of the authorities, as well as the non-governmental sector, political parties and the media, still continue. True, now they have already passed to individuals who criticize the authorities in social media and on the Internet; and disassembly inside the government continues and even deepens.

After the imitation elections on April 11, the relationship between the internal power groups has largely cleared up. Today it is quite obvious that Ramiz Mehdiyev's grouping is clearly dominating. A person belonging to this group has been appointed to the post of prime minister. In other words, the Cabinet is under its control. A few new appointments of R. Mehdiyev"s team's position have further strengthened. And the grouping of Pashayevs became even weaker politically. The position of Beylar Eyyubov grouping, which Ilham Aliyev himself arbitrarily includes, has significantly shaken. Taking into account that Ramiz Mehdiyev and his team have always been quite loyal to Russia, we can say that in the foreign policy aspect of Russia's influence on Azerbaijan has intensified, which is openly manifested in several issues.

- Probably, in Washington you held meetings, discussions in connection with Azerbaijan. What do public or official persons you met with think about our country?

- Now in Washington, we can say, there is no specific policy, or its contours concerning Azerbaijan is traced. Azerbaijan is interesting for the United States in several aspects: as a transit country, for the delivery of military cargo to Afghanistan; from the point of view of energy policy and in this context, in terms of concerns of certain US circles in connection with the status of the Caspian. It can be said that Russia began to gain an advantage.

Russia insists on signing in the near future an agreement on the Caspian, and it can be said that the issue of dividing the Caspian into sectors can is absent. In short, we mean the common use of the sea. And, of course, this causes serious concern in Washington, in particular energy companies, and political circles close to them. If Russia can achieve the signing of this agreement, it will significantly reduce the importance of Azerbaijan, as well as Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

Consequently, this will also cause certain problems in the issue of laying the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline. In such aspects as human rights, democracy, Western and democratic values, in general, Azerbaijan is not of interest. Not only Azerbaijan, not one country. In today"s policy of Washington, these issues, one might say, are not considered to be priorities. The State Department's Human Rights Report was recently published. There are enough critical remarks related to Azerbaijan, including with public and political activists, with the media of the country, with the arrest and subsequent murder in custody of servicemen accused of working for Armenian intelligence.

This is a serious signal. As I said, today these issues do not play any role in Washington's foreign policy. And, finally, one of their traces to date is that the US foreign policy is more oriented towards the Middle East and leads to the strengthening of anti-Iranian moments. And here, Israel and the US are taking synchronous measures. In this process, Saudi Arabia is also included. And in this context, Azerbaijan is significant for Washington, both geographically and politically. But this is regarded as not a very promising issue. Because the fact that Azerbaijan is already sufficiently influenced by Russia is taken into account and accepted as a reality. In general, the situation is as follows. Washington does not feel any serious interest in Azerbaijan at all.

- As you noted, stagnation is observed in the relations between Azerbaijan and the United States. Earlier, when there were some negative processes in Azerbaijan related to human rights, with democracy, the US expressed concern, at least, even in the form of a statement.

But recently we do not even see this. So, America did not react and did not express its position even in connection with the extraordinary presidential elections in Azerbaijan. Therefore, some considered that these steps have been, probably, coordinated with the United States. What do you think about it? What is the reason for this stagnation?

- I think that America's policy towards Azerbaijan has failed completely many years ago. Because this policy began since the time when the US administration, their foreign policy, came under the control of very serious lobbyists.

As a result of their activities, during the period of Barack Obama's administration, Washington ignored the illegal actions of Baku against Radio Liberty. What was the reason for this? There was a certain group of lobbyists, which included both Democrats and Republicans. Some of them are traditionally considered the pro-Israel lobby in Washington. They gave certain guarantees, so that the authorities of Azerbaijan were not criticized. That is, they say, "Our influence on the Azerbaijani authorities is quite strong, and we guarantee the conduct of official Baku policies that are in line with Washington's interests." And in this sense, unfortunately, Azerbaijan is perceived by some circles of Washington as a vassal of Israel. And this is not only negative, but also degrading for the state, statehood of Azerbaijan factor, including in the aspect of its political interests. It's a pity, but it's true.

By the way, a few days ago an Israeli newspaper Haaretz, published a detailed article about how the Azerbaijani authorities widely use the services of the pro-Israel lobby in Washington. The article is quite informative and interesting in terms of disclosing how these lobbyists influence US policy towards Azerbaijan.

- "The vassal of Israel?" But, usually, the factor of Russia was most noted ...

- Before and after the last elections, Russia has become the dominant one. It will gradually push out Israel from Azerbaijan, reduce its influence. This is already obvious. So, for example, you probably already know about an article published 2-3 days ago in foreign media, which says that allegedly, Israeli intelligence has taken out Iran's nuclear archive through Azerbaijan. I think that the appearance of this information is a very serious message. Of course, this should be carefully analyzed, but even now one can say that the specific goals are clear. As you know, after the election, Netanyahu invited Ilham Aliyev to visit Israel.

The appearance of this information after the so-called elections on April 11 may be aimed at disrupting this visit. On the other hand, you know that during the very elections in the country there were a sufficient number of Israeli observers. These were persons, mainly related to the security and defense spheres of Israel. They actively spoke in the press and expressed support for Ilham Aliyev. And one of them went even further and said that the election of Ilham Aliyev is very important for Israel. All these events testify to the fact that Azerbaijan was also in the center of geopolitical litigation. One side is trying to take advantage of our country's actions against Iran, and the other is to prevent it. In the current situation, Russia seeks to fully implement the pressure on Azerbaijan, and is likely to achieve this. And since US policy toward Azerbaijan is actually given to the lobbyists, Washington has lost mechanisms of influence on official Baku.

- "Logically, instead of agreeing with this situation, that is, reconciling with Russia's domination, the US should have been more interested in belonging the decisive word to one of its allies, Israel. However, along with the factors noted by you, we see that US President Trump, though belatedly, nevertheless congratulated President Ilham Aliya on his reelection. And how it can be regarded? On the one hand, the domination of Russia, mentioned by you, and on the other hand - congratulations at the level of the President.

- I would like to note that it was not a greeting, but a usual letter, and was organized with the help of the same lobbyists again. I have exact information about this and I speak with full responsibility! Trump distances himself from Azerbaijan, as he is now being accused because of connection with Agalarov and others. We even had information that on the eve of Ilham Aliyev's arrival at the UN General Assembly session it was planned to hold his meeting with Trump. It's not about taking pictures, but about meeting. At the last moment this meeting was canceled. Because the reputation of the Azerbaijani authorities is so tainted, they are so often mentioned in criminal, corruption scandals that everyone tries to distance themselves from them. And then the letter was an ordinary business letter dedicated to cooperation issues. Barack Obama also wrote such letters. This was another similar letter.

At the same time, of course, Washington, tries in no case not to lose touch. In any case, the United States seeks to maintain ties with any country, state, even with those who are against them, in the opposite camp. This is a specific manifestation of the pragmatic foreign policy of Washington. As for the impact on Azerbaijan through Israel, here Israel cannot compete with Russia. That is, Israel's influence on official Baku is incomparable with the influence of Russia. Moscow will not allow Israel to represent Washington's interests in Azerbaijan. Do not forget that Iran's immediate neighbors are Iran, Russia and Turkey, and they have rather aggravated relations with the United States. Only in Turkey they are a bit softer. Therefore, being in such an environment, Baku can never directly or indirectly pursue a joint policy with either Israel or the US, and cannot build partnership relations with them. Cooperate with them on certain issues in areas such as energy, etc. is possible, but this is temporary. When the time comes, Russia will stop that too.

- Today, in connection with the expiration of the term of office, the US ambassador to Baku left the country, and now the appointment of a new ambassador is expected. Could it be that a more principled diplomat be appointed ambassador to Azerbaijan? Well, at least, one that can intervene in the ongoing events, the question of the factor of Russia. Can Washington send a diplomat who can establish relations between the two countries - Azerbaijan and the US?

- For several reasons, I treat this with pessimism. First, because the Trump administration does not yet have an orderly foreign policy. All decisions are impulsive, all politics are impulsive. Today it is so, and tomorrow is different. One day they say that they are withdrawing troops from Syria, and three days later, they subject the objects in Syria to rocket fire. In addition, in the US relationship with partners in Europe there are quite deep contradictions.

Despite the fact that during the visit of French President Macron to Washington it was not so obvious, some things were read between the lines, especially in the statements of Macron. The meeting with Merkel also went quite tense. At a briefing in the White House, Merkel even openly said that Europe itself must and will decide its fate. That is, one can say that the United States has alienated itself or lost its important ally - the European Union.

If relations with Europe are at this level, then, in this case, Azerbaijan does not have any serious significance for the United States at all. Regardless of who will be appointed ambassador, in Azerbaijan, all the favorable chances have been lost. But in the country there were pro-Western media, institutions of civil society. In fact, an end was put to all of them. Washington"s reaction to this was absolutely calm, and thanks to all the same lobbyists noted above, sacrificed to the authorities of Azerbaijan. After that, no matter who is the US ambassador to Azerbaijan, at least the Secretary of State himself is in his place, it is useless: there are no mechanisms of influence. Other mechanisms of influence such as sanctions, etc. are possible. However, what will it give? Will this bring us closer? I do not think so.

- You are ardent pessimist!

- I would say: realist.

- Do you think there is no chance to normalize relations? And what can motivate the Azerbaijani authorities to make efforts to establish relations?

- The exit from the situation may appear in the event is, for one reason or another, Russia's international position is weakened. But as long as there is tension around Iran (pressure in connection with Tehran's nuclear program, the US threat to withdraw from the nuclear agreement, Israel's policy on Iran, regular finding of pretexts, reasons and emphasis on the need for military operations against Iran), Russia must be active in the south, and will never leave Azerbaijan beyond its control.

Because geographically Azerbaijan is the main overland territory linking Russia and Iran. But, recently the North-South corridor has been tested, etc. Azerbaijan cannot ignore these realities. Baku, in that case, can get closer to Washington if the US imposes an arrest on millions, billions of funds stolen by Azerbaijani officials; that is, if they will apply classical sanctions. But in this case, too, Russia will not allow the current leadership of Azerbaijan, Aliyev's government to improve relations with the West, with the US. As I said at the beginning, as a result of a change in the balance of forces within the Azerbaijani authorities, it can be said, this is impossible.