US analyst about Ramil Safarov`s case

"The pardoning of Ramil Safarov by Azerbaijan after the granting of release by Hungary, combined with the celebratory nature of Safarov's return appears to be a dangerous mix with the potential for opening wounds from 1994", Tomas Fiutak, New York based "Mediators beyond borders" organization's analyst said in an interview with TURAN's Washington DC correspondent.

Heading off violence demands the willingness to boldly state by those who helped broker peace that current conditions hold the kernel of future violence.   Both Baku and Yerevan should accept this statement as both a warning against any precipitous acceleration towards past animosities, as well as an invitation to consider those in the International arena as partners in finding a path away from the violence of the past.

"Both cities should take to heart that peace is seldom the absence of conflict, but the management of the deep rooted historical and contemporary disputes that define the complex conflict culture that binds these countries. The question is, how can this current dispute trigger a more authentic dialogue as to the future of peace between them?", Fiutak, who is also a Senior Fellow at the University of Minnesota, where he researches conflict management theory; negotiation and conflict cultures, added.

The first step, he says, is to establish an ongoing authentic arena in which the interests of all sides can be aired, where options can be displayed, discovered, assessed, created and exchanged in a non-threatening manner.

Citizens have the power to dialogue as do politicians.  All hatred stems from fear.  In order to dig to the core of the hate, there has to be a process that allows for the facing of the fears.

"True peace comes when people accept that they must work at managing the echoes of their mutual conflicts.  False peace accelerates conflict by allowing the fantasy that the real time dangers of this world will be managed by someone else", he emphasized.

False conflict destroys the hope for a well managed peace by focusing current disputes on past hatreds rather than as manageable rocky roads to a peaceful life. True conflict does not mean violence, but the creation of an authentic arena, a physical and psychological space where all parties, citizens, and leaders agree that current and future conflicts will be managed according to a common set of principles that safeguard the livelihood of all.   The result of such noble work is true peace.

For the analyst, the dynamics surrounding the Safarov pardoning will force people to confront their fears.  This is a positive step of reflection. "Who can shape this introspection gains power.  If this power is based on fear, violence will follow.   If the leaders and radical citizens who embrace peace over violence focus this introspection on a better future, change will happen for the good".

Positive negotiations are earmarked by allowing all parties to discover what effect changing one's attitudes and perceptions of the other will have on the behavior of the others. "A deliberate assessment of the current negotiation arena would be in order.  What models exist from successes and failures of past trans-boundary conflicts that may signal a different if not difficult path? How could Yerevan and Baku make use of impartial mediators who could help build the arena as well as facilitate the interactions? 

Many such individuals and groups exist and are competent in the support of such complex conflicts.    It is a question then, of will towards peace, rather than a lack of readily available resources", he concluded. -25В-