What was expected and what happened at the Moscow meeting?

Baku/12.01.21/Turan: The trilateral meeting between Putin, Aliyev and Pashinyan on January 11 in Moscow was held in calm atmosphere, although the results showed Nikol Pashinyan's obvious disappointment. The tension in the negotiations is evidenced by the time, four hours, spent on the agreement of a four-point statement.

At the beginning of the meeting the Russian president outlined issues and theses (demarcation, peacekeepers, humanitarian and cultural values, transport and infrastructure), but only the last item mentioned by Putin was included in the joint statement.

In turn, Aliyev, in his last speech at a meeting on January 6, criticized the excessive powers of the peacekeepers, the presence of armed militants in Karabakh and the free visit of foreigners and Armenian officials to the region.

Before leaving for Moscow, Pashinyan outlined two issues - the release of prisoners of war and the opening of road communications for Armenia.

However, at the final briefing, the Armenian prime minister did not hide his displeasure. He did not agree with Aliyev that the Karabakh conflict was left in the past, saying that there are still many issues to be resolved. The main problem he called the unresolved status of Karabakh and Baku's refusal to extradite Armenian prisoners of war.

The President of Russia in every possible way avoided all these topics and focused on the fruitfulness of the meeting and its great importance for the future of the region. There was no criticism in the speech of Aliyev, who, contrary to what was said earlier, positively assessed the activities of the Russian peacekeepers. This may mean that Moscow has satisfied Baku's demands for a tougher passport regime and supported the call for disarmament in Karabakh.

As for unblocking the road infrastructure, Baku also includes roads inside Karabakh. Therefore, the opening of the railway for Armenia through Nakhchivan and Gazakh does not mean that Baku will not use the roads that are under the control of Armenians inside Karabakh.

The refusal to extradite Armenian prisoners of war is also associated with the presence of prisoners of war and missing from the Azerbaijani side. It is no coincidence that on the day of the Moscow meeting, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry published a list of 64 missing military.  Baku believes that some of them are in captivity, which the Armenians are trying to deny.

This list includes two lieutenant colonels, majors, captains, lieutenants, sergeants and privates of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces. Without getting them back, Baku is unlikely to agree to hand over 62 Armenian soldiers.

Summing up the results of the Moscow meeting, we can say that Yerevan's attempts to change the status quo that emerged after the November 10 announcement were unsuccessful. Now Baku is striving to maintain the status quo, as the Armenian side has been doing for 28 years.

With a high degree of probability, it can be argued that other agreements were reached behind closed doors, which the parties did not report. However, their results will surely become known in the near future. Judging by the fact that Putin and Aliyev were satisfied with the results of the meeting, while Pashinyan was not, then one can guess what kind of agreements these are. -02B-