WHAT WILL RUSSIA STRIVE FOR

    Russias aggression against Georgia will become a turning point in modern history, and will seriously affect the geopolitical situation in the world. This is a conclusion made by most analysts and experts. While the situation remains unstable it is possible to forecast that the Russians will try to bring the case to a logic end: to clean South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgians, deploy Russian troops to these regions on a long-term basis, and then wrangle about the terms of their withdrawal.
     The other point is the question on Saakashvilis resignation.
     The goals of the international community are quite different: to keep Moscow from the occupation of Georgian territories, and to restore peaceful settlement. However, judging by all, it is not possible to convince Moscow only by diplomatic measures. Moscows actions created a dangerous precedent and direct threat to the interests of the USA, West Europe and Turkey in the region.
    The talk is about the energy and transport corridors which are being bombed by Russia. Now the USA, Turkey and Azerbaijan have legal grounds to provide military assistance to Tbilisi (in conformity with the triple security agreements signed in different periods). Providing immediate military assistance will aggravate the situation, because the delivery of the Patriot anti-missile system and other arms to Georgia will require time. Deployment of troops with other military equipment will also take some time. During that time Moscow will manage to realize its minimum program.
    
     However, Russia could face negative political consequences if economic sanctions are applied against Moscow by the developed countries of the Great Eight (G8), up to expelling Russia from G8. The western countries could speed up Georgias joining NATO and the European Union and provide it with additional financial support. Such development of events will not make Moscow withdraw its troops immediately, but can cause deployment of NATO bases and technical intelligence infrastructure in Georgia, though Moscow is decisively against this. The main thing is that it will exclude the probability of Russias repeated aggression against Georgia, and will make irreversible the integration of this country into the Euro-Atlantic institutions. From the geopolitical viewpoint it would be a very important result able to provide long-term military and political presence of the West in the Caucasus, guarantee the realization of economic and transport projects and provide the pro-western orientation of Georgia and Azerbaijan.
     Another question is Moscows relations with the CIS partners during the post-war period. Thus, it became clear again that Russia has always been and remains an empire and the Russian Bear in 2008 does not differ from the bear in 1956, 1968 and 1990. The events will strengthen the will of the CIS countries to hide under the western `umbrella`. First of all, the rapprochement between Ukraine and NATO will develop, forcing out the Russian navy from the Crimea peninsula and blocking the Pridnestrovye region.
     Destabilization and activation of a guerrilla against the Russian army is possible in Ingushetia, Dagestan and Chechnya.
     Then comparative analysis of the latest events with the previous conflicts makes it clear that the explosion of the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline in Turkey was not occasional, and Moscows hand can be seen in that act of terrorism. This is also confirmed by the stoppage of the Caspian oil transportation in all the four directions (Baku-Ceyhan, Baku-Supsa and Baku-Novorossiysk by pipeline and Baku-Batumi by railways). Doing this, Moscow tries to solve its energy problems and block the energy delivery from the Caspian Sea to the west.
     It was not coincidence that the U.S. Vice-president, Dick Cheney made a very tough statement on Monday that Russias actions should not go unpunished. The blocking of the oil pipelines will worsen the Russian-Turkish relations and will make Ankara support Georgia in this conflict.
     Besides that, a split can occur in the Russian society, because the democratic intelligentsia will condemn the Kremlins policy and will demand to respect Georgias sovereignty.
     Great changes will occur in Russias relations with Western Europe. For the first time after the deployment of troops in Czechoslovakia in 1968 Europe will realize the strong probability of the same threats and will unite. In fact, it will strengthen NATO and will speed up the placing of anti-missile defense and other military objects in Poland and Czech Republic. In such a situation Russia will only have one means oil and gas. Time will show how long Moscow will be able to use them, but too much is at stake, and the West will hardly turn back under the Kremlins truncheon.

Neanderthal