The fight against coronavirus requires efficiency, consistency, and complexity

According to Johns Hopkins University, on December 31, 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) was informed of an outbreak of “pneumonia of unknown origin” found in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, the seventh largest city in China with 11 million inhabitants. On January 23, more than 800 cases of 2019 nKoV have been confirmed in the world, including cases in at least 20 regions of China and in nine countries/territories. The first registered infected individuals, some of whom showed symptoms on December 8, were found among traders from the Wuhan South Chinese seafood market. Subsequently, the wet market was closed on January 1. The outbreak-causing virus was quickly identified as a new coronavirus, and on January 10, a new coronavirus was identified in Wuhan because of gene sequencing, namely 2019-nCoV, a beta-coronavirus associated with the Middle East respiratory syndrome virus (MERS-CoV) and severe acute virus respiratory syndrome (SARSCoV). However, mortality and the possibility of transmission of 2019 nKoV are still unknown and are likely to differ from those for the previously mentioned coronaviruses.

On January 23, 2020, Wuhan suspended all public transport and air transportation (to and from the city), quarantining all 11 million residents of the city. Then quarantine spread to all of China. Operational, comprehensive measures, including face-to-face wearing of masks, isolation and treatment of patients, closed quarantine and treatment of virus carriers, testing, disinfection measures, the use of immuno-reinforcing therapy, etc. within a three-month period made it possible to isolate coronavirus and minimize its environmental impact. I want to note that comprehensive and operational measures have been taken. Almost every Chinese citizen became a participant in this struggle, which was led by the country's authorities. As they say in China, the Communist Party was able to mobilize 1.4 billion people.

The spread of the virus and the ineffectiveness of measures in countries affected by the pandemic are associated precisely with the lack of such mobilization of the population, operational and systemic actions of governments.

In Azerbaijan, authorities reacted too late to coronavirus calls. Measures are inconsistent, unsystematic, half-hearted. Further about this.

The first cases of the spread of coronavirus were officially recognized by neighboring Iran on February 19. The first two cases were reported. By February 29, when their number reached 593 cases, the Azerbaijani authorities decided to close the border with this country. During these ten days, tens of thousands of people crossed the border in both directions. By March 1, the first three coronavirus infected were confirmed in Azerbaijan. These are only those who have asked for help. It is difficult to say how many carriers of the virus are there, since in 80% of cases the virus does not manifest itself externally. Georgia closed the border with Azerbaijan on March 13. Azerbaijan and Russia agree to close the border on March 18. That is, the borders, flights of aircraft are gradually being closed.

Only on February 27, an operational headquarters created under the Cabinet of Ministers to combat coronavirus and its consequences. Only 3 weeks later, on March 19, 2020, the country’s official website about COVID-19 began to function, informing about the current state of the fight against the virus in Azerbaijan, infection statistics, as well as recommendations for the population and a chat with the operator for additional information.

Phased measures are being taken since the creation of the headquarters:  isolation of the Absheron Peninsula from the whole country; the creation of specialized medical institutions for the treatment of coronavirus and quarantine for potential patients; the termination of studies at educational institutions; the termination of work in state institutions; the limitation of business activity, with the exception of food trading facilities and essentials, pharmacies. Movement of public transport and walking in parks is prohibited. Citizens over 65 years old must stay home, and do not go out. Propaganda on protection against coronavirus is underway.

As we see, all actions were phased and inoperative, which exacerbated the situation. One of the important conditions for the fight against coronavirus is the massive wearing of masks without exception, mass disinfection, providing the population with the necessary hygiene items - alcohol and the like, by March 31 were not resolved, which makes the fight not so effective and the growth of diseases is evidence of this.

Socio-psychological factor

The protracted nature of measures, uncertainty and inconsistency spread panic, increased emotional stress, and uncertainty about tomorrow. Society is demoralized and disoriented by the indecisive and non-operational actions of the government. In the case of the protracted nature of the fight against a pandemic in the face of limited economic activity, we can expect increased aggression among many participants in the labor market, and especially among people with low incomes. There are millions of them. A survey of small shopkeepers, producers of goods and services shows the depressing state of this layer, which therefore lives from paycheck to paycheck and cannot afford to be left without a livelihood.

Economic factor

According to the State Statistics Committee, as of July 1, 2019, the employed population in Azerbaijan totals  4915.2 thousand people as of January 1, 2014. 86.5% of the total employed population is in the public sector. At the same time, 33.4% or 1590.7 thousand people of the employed population carry out economically useful activities in the country. The remaining 66.6% of citizens are employed in sectors that do not form value added (GDP): the armed forces, law enforcement and judicial authorities, state and municipal services. It should also be noted that the level of social protection and remuneration in these sectors that do not form a real economy and tax budget revenues is significantly higher.

The public sector provides employment for 898 thousand people, and the private sector - 692,7 thousand people. There is also an illegal labor market. It numbers several hundred thousand - these are individuals engaged in self-employed activities without registration, as well as unregistered employees.

In the case of the public sector, the ban on access to work is not so terrible, as workers in this sector are paid salaries and most likely, the issuance of salaries will continue in case of prolongation of quarantine. Although there is information about the transfer of salaries in some institutions to the coronavirus fund.

In the case of prolongation of quarantine until universal vaccination or the disappearance of the virus, the subjects of forming the real economy will face the problem of obtaining livelihoods. About 1 million people and their families. If this problem is not resolved, the state may face high social tension in society. It is also necessary to take into account the aggravation of the situation in connection with the fall in oil prices.

That is, we are dealing with a symbiosis of medical and socio-economic nature. Naturally, the root cause is a medical problem, which must be resolved in the first place and quite quickly. That is, the government is obliged to stand on the rails of operational and systemic decisions.

In the medical field: mandatory universal wearing of masks, allocation of funds to strengthen the immunity of the population, strengthening propaganda of protection against coronavirus, strengthening quarantine and disinfection measures.

In the economic sphere: To oblige both legal and illegal, semi-legal, profitable economic entities to pay salaries to their non-working employees. Allocate from the state budget to everyone who is left without work, including illegal workers, within the average wage in the country. It is illegal for workers to allocate funds only if they apply to the Ministry of Labor and legalize their activities - registration as a taxpayer. This step will lead to a significant legalization of the gray economy. To support 1 million workers, it will require 500 million manats per month. It should be noted that these funds would not go to offshore or to a mattress. They will become a stimulating factor in demand, trade, production of goods and services.

After relative stabilization while maintaining all medical conditions, perhaps by the end of April it will be possible to resume the work of all economic entities on the example of China.

We are on the eve of spring agricultural work, and therefore, priority support should be provided to agriculture and especially small producers. It will be necessary to apply a system of state orders under state guarantees in order to stimulate local production in conditions of closed borders, this is important. In the future, this will become an important factor in enhancing the country's food security.

Finally, we need to attract Chinese specialists and experts, use their experience to solve problems of a medical and socio-economic nature.