Will Pashinyan be able to remain in power?

At the same time, one and a half to two kilometers from the rally of Pashinyan's supporters, on Baghramyan Avenue, on which the parliament buildings and the presidential residence are located, a counter-revolutionary opposition rally was held, which was attended by no more than 5-6 thousand people. In fact, it was a fiasco of the counter-revolutionary forces. They never succeeded in gaining the support of the people, even despite the defeat of Armenia in the war with Azerbaijan.

People are well aware that the “former” ex-presidents Serzh Sargsyan and Robert Kocharian are the puppeteers of these protest actions, so the opposition’s attempts to “shift arrows” to Pashinyan for the defeat of the army cannot be crowned with success.

A public opinion poll on the topic “Do we need early parliamentary elections today?” conducted by the Armenian office of the Gallup International Association on February 19 showed that if the elections were held now, 33.1% of respondents would vote for the ruling bloc “My step".

- “Prosperous Armenia” - 4.4%;

- "Enlightened Armenia" - 2.6%;

- Republican Party - 2.2%;

- ARFD - 2.2%;

- "Fatherland" - 0.9%;

- Party "Republic" - 0.7%;

- "Sasna Tsrer" - 0.4%;

- "Citizen's Choice" - 0.2%.

- "Orinats Yerkir" - 0.1%;

- “Christian Democratic Revival” - 0.1%;

- “Armenian Eagles” - 0.1%.

The respondents also named certain politicians, including Robert Kocharian - 5.6% and Vazgen Manukyan - 0.9%.

- “For no one” will vote 27.2%.

- 15.7% found it difficult to answer.

Thus, about 40% of the respondents do not see a candidate for whom they could vote.

When asked to rate politicians on a scale from 1 to 5 (where 5 is the highest rating), citizens responded as follows:

- Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan - 2.8 points;

- President Armen Sarkissian - 2.3 points;

- The first president Levon Ter-Petrosyan - 1.7 points

- Second President Robert Kocharian - 2 points;

- The third President Serzh Sargsyan - 1.7 points;

- Leader of the Prosperous Armenia Party Gagik Tsarukyan - 2.2 points,

- Leader of the Enlightened Armenia Party Edmon Marukyan - 1.8;

- Leader of the Fatherland Party Artur Vanetsyan - 1.5;

- Leader of the "Movement for the Salvation of the Motherland" Vazgen Manukyan and the representative of the ARF (Armenian Revolutionary Federation), "Dashnaktsutyun" Ishkhan Saghatelyan - 1.6 points each.

At the same time, 38.8% believe that Pashinyan should remain in the post of prime minister.

- 43.6% believe that he should resign. (In a poll conducted on November 13, 2020, 35% demanded the prime minister's resignation).

- 17.6% found it difficult to answer.

When asked, “Who is to blame for the defeat in the Karabakh war?” 32% of the respondents named the former authorities as the main culprits. Nikol Pashinyan and the current government named 28.8%. Turkey and its military assistance to Azerbaijan - 16.1%. 4.4% named individual officers of the Armenian Defense Ministry and the Karabakh Defense Army guilty.

Another 10.2% of respondents believe that Armenia and the so-called "Artsakh" did not lose. About 19% gave other reasons. 7.7% found it difficult to answer.

When asked, “What should Armenia strive for in the Karabakh issue?” 30.7% answered that it is necessary to return Shusha and Khojavend (Hadrut) and seven regions (return to the situation as of September 26).

- 27.7% indicated the stabilization of the current situation within the existing borders.

- 20.2% noted that only Shusha and Khojavend (Hadrut) must be returned

- 3.1% noted that it is necessary to recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, surrender "Artsakh" and end the conflict.

About 10% mentioned other options; 8.2% found it difficult to answer.

The holding of parliamentary elections in the current situation is "unequivocally necessary":

- 37.1% of the respondents;

- rather necessary - 21.3%;

- rather unnecessary - 13.6%;

- not necessary at all - 19.7%.

As for the format of early elections, 41.2% believe that the elections should be held under the leadership of Nikol Pashinyan. 28.2% are in favor of not being held by Pashinyan.

Another 7.9% were in favor of the elections being held under the leadership of the interim government proposed by the opposition; 8.9% mentioned other options; 14% found it difficult to answer the question.

28.2% of those polled "completely agree" with Pashinyan's decision not to hold early elections. 11.7% “rather agree” with this.

“Rather disagree” with such a decision of the prime minister - 15.9%. “Absolutely disagree” with him - 35%. More than 9% of respondents found it difficult to answer.

Thus, despite the decline in Pashinyan's popularity, the opposition's rating is several times lower than that of him and the bloc of his supporters. It is for this reason that the revolt of the army elite failed. Many more people come out in support of Pashinyan than for the opposition. No matter how critical they are of Pashinyan, they treat the “former” much worse and do not want them to return to power. That is why Moscow, which has its own interest in Armenia, did not dare to support the opposition. Moscow limited itself to stating that this is all an internal affair of Armenia and the rebellious generals did not dare to bring tanks to the streets. The Armenian opposition was not confident in its strength and did not believe that they could succeed in a coup. The fact is that even if the rebellious generals gave the order to the army to bring armored vehicles to the streets, the reaction of senior and junior officers who directly work with the personnel would hardly be unambiguous. They would hardly have followed the generals, since they are sure that it was their fault that the war was lost.

This is the only reason why the generals did not dare to withdraw the army to the streets of Yerevan. They realized that, at best, there would be a split in the armed forces - part of the army would side with Pashinyan, and the other part would side with the generals. This is a direct path to a civil war with unpredictable consequences. In short, not finding support, the generals decided not to risk it and retreated.

This means that the threat of a military coup has passed (at least for now), that the situation is developing in Pashinyan's favor. The people see no alternative to him. If there is another attempt at a military coup, then a civil confrontation in the country will become inevitable - Pashinyan will not give up power.

The Arena of Conflict of Interest

In addition to Russia, the French Armenian diaspora and, most importantly, the American diaspora began to interfere in the events in Armenia very actively.

The Armenian diaspora in America has close ties with US Vice President Kamala Harris. Therefore, the situation may turn out to be completely unexpected for Russia. Then an even more (pro-Western, pro-American) person may turn out to be the prime minister of Armenia.

It should also not be forgotten that the United States has more financial instruments than Russia to influence Armenia and Prime Minister Pashinyan.

There is another very important aspect - the moral and psychological. In Armenia, the position of Putin and of Russia in general during the war was perceived as treacherous. Therefore, Moscow should not expect that now, after the strongest emotional stress, the Armenians will make a choice in favor of Russia.

Now there is a risk that Putin, with his personal prejudice, with his rejection of Pashinyan, could outsmart himself. As we can see, Armenia is becoming an arena where the interests of the West and Russia collide.

As already mentioned, there is no alternative to Pashinyan. The Kremlin understands this, and it will gradually retreat.

Apparently, Chief of the General Staff Onik Gasparyan, who threatened Pashinyan with a coup, will be removed from office. His chances of overthrowing the government are practically nil.

Having neutralized the opposition, Nikol Pashinyan will send Robert Kocharian and Serzh Sargsyan to prison. The arrest of Onik Gasparyan is not ruled out either.

In all likelihood, after neutralizing the revanchist forces, Pashinyan will begin real state building, which Armenia never needs.