Pessimistic Forecast of IMF for Countries Dependent on Oil

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on January 20, unveiled an updated forecast for the development of the world economy World Economic Outlook Update. The complete report will be presented in Beijing, according to DW.

The IMF revised its forecast that assumed for the current year a slight increase in the Russian economy, and expects its fall by three percent in 2015, and one percent - in 2016. As the reasons experts call low oil prices, the depreciation of the ruble and the Ukrainian crisis.

Not too well-being is also the IMF forecast for growth of the world economy. The report's authors believe that in 2015 it will be 3.5 percent, and in 2016 - 3.7 percent. The average is 0.3 percentage points lower than predicted three months ago.

Growth rate for the euro area as a whole is forecast at 1.2 percent in 2015 and 1.4 - in 2016.

The situation in Russia will be accompanied by economic decline in the neighboring countries and especially in the oil, says the IMF, according to RBC.

"The countries - exporters of oil, for which oil revenues make up a large part of the tax revenue, are experiencing significant turmoil of the economy," the report says.

The fall is due to a sharp decline in oil prices and increased geopolitical tensions, the report says. At the same time countries that have accumulated large reserves in previous years will more easily go through the fall in oil prices, the authors wrote, referring to the Gulf countries and developed countries with diversified economies.

According to Turan, at the beginning of November last year, the IMF mission during a visit to Baku confirmed its pessimistic forecasts on Azerbaijan for 2015. The forecast was made public when the price of oil was around $ 83. The report indicated that in 2015 the economy will continue to fall and, at best, growth will be 3.4%. This will also apply to non-oil sector, where growth is expected to not more than 6%.

In 2015, the decline in the oil sector will continue to intensify the imbalance between external debt and current account surplus of its balance of payments. For the first time last year Azerbaijan's foreign debt exceeded the surplus of the current account balance. The current account surplus amounted to 13.7% of GDP and external debt reached 14.4% of GDP.

The November report stated that the assets of the main donor of the economy - the State Oil Fund will fall by $ 5.5 billion - from $ 38.309 billion in 2014 to $ 32.802 billion.

The reliability and validity of the IMF report is proved by the fact that in 2008 this specialized UN department predicted recession in Azerbaijan after 2015. Moreover, it called this recession "protracted".

It also noted that the pace of development of the real GDP will be negative after 2010, and in the period 2015-2018, it will fluctuate at the level of 0%, and after 2020 will fall to 5% or more per year. Development of GDP calculated by the method of consumption will be reduced to 0% per year in 2013-2015 and -5% per year in the period 2015-2020 with a slight increase from 2020.

The non-oil GDP started to fall in 2012 and will reach a rate of 0% at the turn of 2017, to continue to fall to -5% or more per year by 2020. In this case, the IMF also predicts that in 2010, private consumption, which reaches 52% of non-oil GDP, starts to fall to 42% of non-oil GDP in the 2018-2020 years to stabilize at this level until 2025. Since 2016 domestic government debt will start to grow from 1% to 9.5% of non-oil GDP in 2030.

In 2015, public investment will reach its peak in over 40% of non-oil GDP and will immediately begin to fall to 5% of non-oil GDP in the period 2020-2025. Private investment, which will also reach its peak (more than 45% of non-oil GDP) in 2015, will be reduced to 25% of non-oil GDP in 2020 with the stabilization of a little above that mark until 2025.

Analysts of Turan note that in these circumstances, the government should only redefine the concept of Azerbaijan 2020: A Look into the Future approved in December 2012. Although the growth rate laid down in it was not so high, even this will have to be reconsidered, but not arithmetically, as the government had to do it in the fall of 2014, when real GDP growth forecast given in the concept was reduced from 5.2% to 3.6%. On the agenda there is a global issue - reformatting the economy towards liberalization and protecting it from the dictates of the state. -0-