The threat to global shipping in the Red Sea is likely to persist

In a recent development, Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, claimed responsibility for a missile attack on the American ship Chem Ranger in the Gulf of Aden on January 19. Yahya Saria, a military representative of the Houthi movement, announced the strike on the Houthi-owned Al Masirah TV channel, asserting that the Yemeni Navy successfully targeted the vessel with multiple anti-ship missiles. Saria emphasized that the attack was in retaliation for previous U.S. and UK airstrikes on Ansar Allah targets in Yemen.

The Houthi representative claimed a direct hit on the American ship, raising concerns about the safety of maritime operations in the region. This incident comes on the heels of heightened tensions triggered by the U.S. and UK military actions against Houthi positions.

Why did the United States and Britain decide to bomb the Houthis?

The United States and Great Britain justified their recent airstrikes on Houthi targets, citing an incident on January 11 when the Houthis launched an anti-ship ballistic missile along international shipping lanes in the Gulf of Aden. Officials from both Western nations reported that the strikes targeted Houthi locations associated with missiles, drones, and radar stations. However, there is currently no information available regarding casualties resulting from these airstrikes.

The root cause of the military intervention by the U.S. and UK was the escalating number of attacks by the Houthis on commercial vessels in the region. American authorities revealed that the January 11 missile launch was the 27th such attack since November 19, 2023. Notably, the majority of these assaults occurred in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial maritime passage where the Red Sea meets the Gulf of Aden.

In a notable incident on November 19, the Houthis successfully captured the cargo ship Galaxy Leader, owned by the Israeli businessman Rami Ungar Ray Shipping Group. This act prompted the Houthi rebels to threaten further attacks on ships flying the Israeli flag or those bound for Israeli ports. This threat led to widespread concerns, prompting major shipping companies, including Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), CMA CGM, Maersk, and Hapag-Lloyd, to reroute their vessels away from the Red Sea due to the increased risk of Houthi attacks.

The situation has also prompted a multinational response, with the Pentagon launching Operation Prosperity Guardian on December 18. This operation, conducted under the auspices of the Joint Maritime Forces, aims to safeguard navigation in the Red Sea amidst rising tensions in the region. As the conflict continues to unfold, the international community is closely monitoring developments in Yemen, with concerns about the potential escalation of hostilities and the impact on maritime security.

Houthi Escalation: Unpacking the Motivations Behind Attacks on Israeli Ships

The ongoing conflict in Yemen has taken a new turn with Ansar Allah, commonly known as the Houthis, launching attacks on Israeli ships in the Red Sea. The move comes as the militant group openly declares Israel as its enemy, as evidenced by their official slogan: "Death to America, death to Israel, Curse to the Jews, Victory to Islam." The recent intensification of hostilities follows the commencement of an IDF operation in the Gaza Strip.

Yahya Saria, a prominent figure within the Houthi movement, articulated the group's stance in a televised address. He declared that the Houthis would not only target Israeli territory but also prevent ships associated with Israel from navigating the waters of the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Saria emphasized that these actions were a symbolic gesture of solidarity with their "oppressed brothers in Palestine."

In his address, Saria outlined the group's rationale, stating that the attacks on Israeli ships would persist until what they view as "Israeli aggression" comes to an end. The Houthi spokesperson, as reported by Bloomberg, highlighted their commitment to supporting the Palestinian cause and framed these assaults as a direct response to the perceived injustices faced by Palestinians in the ongoing conflict.

The Houthi decision to target Israeli ships further complicates the already volatile situation in the region. The move has prompted concerns about the broader implications for maritime security and the potential for an escalation of conflict involving multiple actors. As international attention turns towards the complexities of this geopolitical puzzle, the motivations behind the Houthi attacks on Israeli ships underscore the intricate web of alliances, enmities, and regional dynamics that continue to shape the Middle East's turbulent landscape.

The Houthis' Rise: Tracing the Roots of Support and Strength

The strengthening of the Houthi rebel group, Ansar Allah, in Yemen can be attributed to various geopolitical factors and external support, primarily from Iran. Iran's strategic interests in countering American influence in the Middle East, coupled with its antagonistic stance towards Israel, have driven its support for groups aligned with its regional objectives.

Iran's aspirations to be a dominant regional power and expand its influence led it to employ proxy movements and engage in hybrid warfare, with the ultimate goal of diminishing Israel's presence. One of the key proxies cultivated by Iran is the Lebanese Shiite organization and political party Hezbollah, established in 1982. Known for its anti-Israel stance, Hezbollah has carried out numerous acts of sabotage, raids, and suicide attacks against Israeli and U.S. targets. The group's actions also extend beyond Lebanon, with notable attacks in Argentina in 1992 and 1994, as well as support for Hamas in northern Israel in 2023.

In Yemen, Ansar Allah traces its origins back to 1994, under the leadership of Imam Hussein Badruddin al-Houthi. The group emerged in response to perceived discrimination against Zaidi population and cooperation between Yemeni authorities and the United States. Iran recognized the combat capabilities of the Zaidites and began financing and arming Ansar Allah.

Following Hussein Badruddin al-Houthi's death in 2004, his brother Abdul-Malik al-Houthi assumed leadership, continuing the rebellion against the Yemeni government. Despite a government victory in 2009, accusations of Iranian support persisted. The conflict reignited in 2011, with the Houthis gaining control over Amran in 2014, and a brief occupation of the capital Sanaa in the same year.

The tipping point came in 2015 when Saudi Arabia and Gulf countries intervened on behalf of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi. Iran, in support of the Houthis, supplied them with weapons, including missiles and drones. This external assistance enabled Ansar Allah not only to repel attacks but also to expand its territorial control.

Houthi Arsenal Raises Concerns: A Potential Challenge to Regional Stability

The Houthi rebel group's evolving military capabilities, particularly in the realm of ballistic missiles, pose a growing concern for regional stability, with implications reaching as far as Israel. Recent analyses, as reported by Breakingdefense, indicate that the Houthis have demonstrated a new, larger rocket during a parade in Sanaa last September.

The missile's dimensions closely resemble the Iranian Ghadr-F, with Tehran asserting a range of 1950 km. Computer modeling and video analysis suggest that if such a missile were launched from northern Yemen, it could potentially reach the entire territory of Israel. This development raises questions about the effectiveness of Israel's Arrow system, designed to counter such long-range threats, and underscores the Houthis' persistent efforts to expand their ballistic missile arsenal despite UN arms embargoes.

The Houthi attempts to strike Eilat, a city in southern Israel, towards the end of 2023, further highlight their ambitions. While the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), along with the US Navy and the UK, successfully repelled these missile attacks, the incidents underscore the Houthi's determination to extend their reach. On October 19, the US Navy destroyer USS Carney intercepted cruise missiles and drones launched by the Houthis toward Israel in the Red Sea, showcasing their ongoing efforts to challenge regional security.

While the Houthis may lack the technical prowess to inflict significant damage on US and British naval assets, their arsenal is sufficient to disrupt navigation in the Red Sea for an extended period. Cargo ships remain potential targets, and the prospect of land operations to neutralize these threats appears challenging for the US and Britain. Additionally, the Houthis' ability to deploy sea mines adds a layer of complexity to the situation, further complicating efforts to secure the Red Sea.

As a result, the threat to global shipping in the Red Sea is expected to persist in the medium term, raising concerns about the broader implications for maritime security and necessitating careful consideration of strategic responses by the international community.

Red Sea Crisis Sparks Global Economic Concerns

The mounting tensions and hostilities in the Red Sea are casting a shadow over the global economy, triggering a ripple effect that extends far beyond the conflict zone. The ramifications of this crisis are poised to disrupt key trade routes, causing significant delays in cargo delivery between Asia and Europe.

As the escalation continues, the average duration of cargo delivery is expected to surge by 14-15 days. This unforeseen extension will necessitate port owners to swiftly augment capacity amid massive temporary disruptions in cargo transport. The forced circumvention of ships around the African continent will not only extend delivery times but also escalate the load on the final receiving points of goods.

The threat of rocket attacks in the region has already resulted in a spike in the cost of ship insurance, adding financial strain to an industry that navigates these critical waters daily. Approximately 35 thousand merchant ships traverse this area annually, emphasizing the widespread economic impact.

Corey Ranslem, CEO of maritime safety company Dryad Global, has warned that if the crisis intensifies, up to 10% of the global GDP could be at risk. Such a scenario would not only disrupt supply chains but also pose a substantial threat to the stability of the world economy.

Market indicators are already responding to the escalating crisis. The price of futures for Brent crude oil for delivery in March and WTI for delivery in February on the ICE exchange experienced a notable uptick  in response to news about airstrikes at Yemen airport and Houthi positions. The vulnerability of these vital shipping lanes adds an element of uncertainty to the global energy market, impacting not only fuel prices but also broader economic dynamics.

Bloomberg has reported  that Iran's potential response to U.S. strikes in Yemen could further compound the economic challenges. An estimated 20% of fuel supplies could be affected, highlighting the interconnectedness of geopolitical events and their profound implications on the global economic landscape.

As the crisis unfolds, the world watches with growing concern, mindful of the potential far-reaching consequences that extend well beyond the immediate conflict zone in the Red Sea.